Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Medford, OR

286 
WWUS56 KMFR 050459
SVSMFR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
959 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

ORC029-035-050508-
/O.EXP.KMFR.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170505T0500Z/
Jackson OR-Klamath OR-
959 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND
WESTERN KLAMATH COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 PM PDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However hail and 
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4220 12245 4226 12268 4264 12248 4258 12228
TIME...MOT...LOC 0458Z 200DEG 35KT 4254 12242 

$$

DW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
917 PM PDT Thu May 4 2017

.DISCUSSION...Quite a busy evening over the Medford CWA with
multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and a very rare Tornado
Warning. These warnings have mostly been based on radar
signatures, but there was one report of one-inch hail near Myrtle
Creek. The thunderstorm activity continues at this time and more
warnings are possible.

The remainder of the discussion, which covers the weather from
tomorrow through next Thursday, is from the Thursday afternoon
AFD.

It will turn much, MUCH cooler Friday with highs 30 degrees
cooler than today across the Interior West Side. We also expect a
fair amount of rain in that same area, around a quarter of an
inch. The cool and showery weather will continue into Saturday
morning before it diminishes through Sunday. A few inches of snow
is possible above 6000 feet by Saturday morning.

Some frost is expected on the West Side and Shasta Valley as early
as Saturday morning, but more likely Sunday and possibly Monday
mornings. BTL

LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...As I suspected yesterday,
the models have shifted the large closed low further south with
the last few runs. This allows high pressure to build in a bit
more and persist a bit longer than previously thought. It will
also allow for a fairly strong thermal trough to take shape. The
end result will be dry weather with mostly clear skies and
generally offshore flow for Monday and Tuesday. Have bumped up
daytime temperatures a bit, and also nudged overnight temperatures
higher for much of the West Side, especially the ridgelines and
along the coast near Brookings where the Chetco effect is forecast
to be in play.

The models show the ridge breaking down and another trough
approaching the area from the west by midweek. The trough itself is
resolved by nearly all of the model suites, but there is a wide
spread in timing and track. The latest runs would suggest the arrival
of precipitation later on Wednesday, but with the variation in
solutions, have kept a slight chance of precipitation in place
Tuesday night into Wedensday morning. Confidence is much too low to
nail down any specifics, especially if the models change their minds
again, but it does appear likely that the pattern will shift to cool
and wet by the end of the week. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...05/00Z TAF CYCLE...IFR/LIFR ceilings and fog are
entrenched along the coast and will prevail through tonight with
occasional drizzle and the coastal mountains mainly obscured.

Meanwhile, a different environment exists inland. VFR prevails
though with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Development
favored near the Cascades...especially in eastern Douglas County
as well as western and central Siskiyou county. These storms have
and will continue to produce strong wind gusts, hail and heavy rain
through 06Z this evening. Turbulence could be an issue in the
vicinity of KMFR/KLMT.

A cold front will move to the coast around 11Z then spread inland
Friday morning into early Friday afternoon with light showers as
well as areas of MVFR and mountain obscuration mainly from the
Cascades westward. -DW

&&

.MARINE...Updated 400 PM PDT Thursday, 4 May 2017...Seas will
remain swell dominated tonight while a cold front moves through the
waters. High pressure offshore and a thermal trough inland will
bring increasing northwest winds Friday through the weekend.
Moderate northwest swell will be near to slightly higher than
current levels but the trend of increasing winds will bring
gradually increasing seas to a peak on Sunday evening. Small craft
advisory level winds will first develop south of Gold Beach beyond 5
NM from shore on Friday afternoon and evening. By Saturday, advisory
level conditions will extend across the waters south of Cape Blanco
beyond 5 NM from shore with gale force gusts possible in the
afternoon and evening south of Gold Beach. Advisory level conditions
may spread north of Cape Blanco on Sunday with a mix of steep to
very steep seas likely south of Cape Blanco. Gales are likely south
of Port Orford on Sunday afternoon and evening. Conditions are
likely to improve on Monday. -DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through
        Sunday evening for PZZ356-376.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 5 PM PDT Saturday for
        PZZ356-376.
     Hazardous Seas Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
        afternoon for PZZ356-376.

18/15/16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
838 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

ORZ027-050400-
South Central Oregon Cascades-
838 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN DOUGLAS AND NORTHWESTERN
KLAMATH COUNTIES...

At 838 PM PDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Crescent Lake,
or 28 miles southeast of Oakridge, moving north at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Odell Lake and Crescent Lake.

* This includes...
   Highway 58 in Oregon between mile markers 63 and 74.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4340 12192 4342 12216 4344 12216 4344 12214
      4345 12215 4348 12213 4351 12213 4352 12215
      4355 12213 4358 12210 4358 12208 4361 12200
      4361 12184
TIME...MOT...LOC 0338Z 188DEG 31KT 4349 12203

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
903 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             1 WSW MYRTLE CREEK      43.02N 123.29W
05/04/2017  M0.25 INCH       DOUGLAS            OR   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. OCCURRED EARLIER
            THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

CZS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
917 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

ORZ026-028-050445-
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-Jackson County-
917 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY...

At 916 PM PDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Emigrant Lake,
or near Ashland, moving north at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ashland, Butte Falls, Willow Lake, Emigrant Lake, Hyatt Lake
Campground, Fish Lake, Howard Prairie Recreation Area and Buck
Prairie Nordic Trails.

* This includes the following highways...
   Lake of the Woods Highway 140 in Oregon between mile markers 15
  and 30.
   Highway 66 in Oregon between mile markers 1 and 17.
   Interstate 5 in Oregon between mile markers 7 and 15.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4206 12250 4212 12272 4255 12256 4246 12229
TIME...MOT...LOC 0416Z 200DEG 36KT 4219 12257

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
918 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 SW PROSPECT           42.67N 122.63W
05/04/2017                   JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DOWNED TREES REPORTED NEAR THE ROAD. NOT
            SURE WHEN THIS OCCURRED SO LEFT TIME AS IS.
            LOCATION NEAR LOST CREEK LAKE AND HIGHWAY
            62.

&&

CZS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
920 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

CAZ081-ORZ028-050445-
Central Siskiyou County CA-
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades OR-
920 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU AND SOUTH
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM PDT...

At 919 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms over
Hilt, or 14 miles south of Ashland, and also near Yreka, moving
north at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Yreka, Pilot Rock, Montague, I 5 Siskiyou Summit, Siskiyou Summit,
Hilt, Tree Of Heaven Campground and Hornbrook.

* This includes the following highways...
   Highway 3 in California near mile marker 50.
   Highway 96 in California between mile markers 95 and 105.
   Interstate 5 in Oregon between mile markers 1 and 5.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4173 12254 4173 12272 4208 12272 4207 12243
TIME...MOT...LOC 0419Z 201DEG 35KT 4199 12262

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
922 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW BUTTE FALLS       42.57N 122.62W
05/04/2017                   JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED DOWNED TREES ALONG ROAD.
            NOT SURE ABOUT TIMING, SO LEFT AS IS.

&&

CZS