Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Medford, OR

849 
WWUS56 KMFR 050551
SVSMFR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
1051 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

ORC029-035-050600-
/O.CON.KMFR.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170505T0600Z/
Jackson OR-Klamath OR-
1051 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM PDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL JACKSON AND WESTERN KLAMATH COUNTIES...

At 1050 PM PDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Pederson Snow
Park, or 18 miles northeast of Ashland, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Mount Mcloughlin Trailhead, Fish Lake Snow Park, Summit Snowpark,
Fish Lake and Pederson Snow Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4222 12229 4229 12248 4243 12248 4239 12217
TIME...MOT...LOC 0550Z 203DEG 35KT 4230 12236 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MAS

424 
WWUS56 KMFR 050559
SVSMFR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
1059 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

ORC029-035-050608-
/O.EXP.KMFR.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170505T0600Z/
Jackson OR-Klamath OR-
1059 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL JACKSON AND
WESTERN KLAMATH COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1100 PM PDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail,
gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4222 12229 4229 12248 4243 12248 4239 12217
TIME...MOT...LOC 0558Z 203DEG 35KT 4237 12232 

$$

MAS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
917 PM PDT Thu May 4 2017

.DISCUSSION...Quite a busy evening over the Medford CWA with
multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and a very rare Tornado
Warning. These warnings have mostly been based on radar
signatures, but there was one report of one-inch hail near Myrtle
Creek. The thunderstorm activity continues at this time and more
warnings are possible.

The remainder of the discussion, which covers the weather from
tomorrow through next Thursday, is from the Thursday afternoon
AFD.

It will turn much, MUCH cooler Friday with highs 30 degrees
cooler than today across the Interior West Side. We also expect a
fair amount of rain in that same area, around a quarter of an
inch. The cool and showery weather will continue into Saturday
morning before it diminishes through Sunday. A few inches of snow
is possible above 6000 feet by Saturday morning.

Some frost is expected on the West Side and Shasta Valley as early
as Saturday morning, but more likely Sunday and possibly Monday
mornings. BTL

LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...As I suspected yesterday,
the models have shifted the large closed low further south with
the last few runs. This allows high pressure to build in a bit
more and persist a bit longer than previously thought. It will
also allow for a fairly strong thermal trough to take shape. The
end result will be dry weather with mostly clear skies and
generally offshore flow for Monday and Tuesday. Have bumped up
daytime temperatures a bit, and also nudged overnight temperatures
higher for much of the West Side, especially the ridgelines and
along the coast near Brookings where the Chetco effect is forecast
to be in play.

The models show the ridge breaking down and another trough
approaching the area from the west by midweek. The trough itself is
resolved by nearly all of the model suites, but there is a wide
spread in timing and track. The latest runs would suggest the arrival
of precipitation later on Wednesday, but with the variation in
solutions, have kept a slight chance of precipitation in place
Tuesday night into Wedensday morning. Confidence is much too low to
nail down any specifics, especially if the models change their minds
again, but it does appear likely that the pattern will shift to cool
and wet by the end of the week. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...05/00Z TAF CYCLE...IFR/LIFR ceilings and fog are
entrenched along the coast and will prevail through tonight with
occasional drizzle and the coastal mountains mainly obscured.

Meanwhile, a different environment exists inland. VFR prevails
though with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Development
favored near the Cascades...especially in eastern Douglas County
as well as western and central Siskiyou county. These storms have
and will continue to produce strong wind gusts, hail and heavy rain
through 06Z this evening. Turbulence could be an issue in the
vicinity of KMFR/KLMT.

A cold front will move to the coast around 11Z then spread inland
Friday morning into early Friday afternoon with light showers as
well as areas of MVFR and mountain obscuration mainly from the
Cascades westward. -DW

&&

.MARINE...Updated 400 PM PDT Thursday, 4 May 2017...Seas will
remain swell dominated tonight while a cold front moves through the
waters. High pressure offshore and a thermal trough inland will
bring increasing northwest winds Friday through the weekend.
Moderate northwest swell will be near to slightly higher than
current levels but the trend of increasing winds will bring
gradually increasing seas to a peak on Sunday evening. Small craft
advisory level winds will first develop south of Gold Beach beyond 5
NM from shore on Friday afternoon and evening. By Saturday, advisory
level conditions will extend across the waters south of Cape Blanco
beyond 5 NM from shore with gale force gusts possible in the
afternoon and evening south of Gold Beach. Advisory level conditions
may spread north of Cape Blanco on Sunday with a mix of steep to
very steep seas likely south of Cape Blanco. Gales are likely south
of Port Orford on Sunday afternoon and evening. Conditions are
likely to improve on Monday. -DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through
        Sunday evening for PZZ356-376.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 5 PM PDT Saturday for
        PZZ356-376.
     Hazardous Seas Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
        afternoon for PZZ356-376.

18/15/16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
922 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW BUTTE FALLS       42.57N 122.62W
05/04/2017                   JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED DOWNED TREES ALONG ROAD.
            NOT SURE ABOUT TIMING, SO LEFT AS IS.

&&

CZS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
940 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             UNION CREEK             42.91N 122.44W
05/04/2017  E1.75 INCH       JACKSON            OR   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

CZS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
948 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             2 SE MEDFORD            42.32N 122.82W
05/04/2017  M0.25 INCH       JACKSON            OR   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

CZS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1008 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             5 E TRAIL               42.66N 122.71W
05/04/2017  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            OR   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED
            BASED ON RADAR.

&&

CZS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
1018 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

ORZ027>029-050545-
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-South Central Oregon
Cascades-Klamath Basin-
1018 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL JACKSON
AND WEST CENTRAL KLAMATH COUNTIES...

At 1017 PM PDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Fourmile
Lake Campground, or 27 miles south of Crater Lake, moving north at 50
mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crater Lake, Crater Lake National Park, Fourmile Lake Campground,
Annie Creek Snow Park, Crater Lake Lodge and Highway 62 Near Crater
Lake.

* This includes...
   Highway 62 in Oregon between mile markers 67 and 87.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4241 12223 4248 12245 4298 12224 4288 12190
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 202DEG 42KT 4252 12231

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1026 PM PDT THU MAY 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     HAIL             2 S GREENVIEW           41.52N 122.91W
05/04/2017  M1.00 INCH       SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED HAIL ABOUT THE SIZE OF
            NICKELS.

&&

CZS