Special Marine Warning 252, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
355 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017

...IRMA COULD BRING CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DEVASTATING MAJOR
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...

.DISCUSSION...
The center of Hurricane Irma has emerged over the waters off the
northern coast of Cuba today. Outer bands of the storm have
produced strong wind gusts. The tropical storm sustained winds
continue to near the region, already creeping into the waters off
South Florida. Conditions will continue to deteriorate through the
afternoon and evening.

This morning, an area of wind shear permitted the development of
rotating cells within a few bands of convection which led to the
Tornado Watch and several Tornado Warnings being issued. We've
entered a patch of subsidence midday here into the early
afternoon. The watch lasts until midnight local time and
additional tornadic activity is possible later this evening into
the overnight once the shear and convection returns.

Here are a few key messages with Hurricane Irma:

1. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane, bringing life-threatening wind impacts
to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the center.
Wind hazards from Irma are also expected to spread northward along
the coast of Georgia and South Carolina where a Hurricane Watch
has been issued.

2. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge
flooding in portions of central and southern Florida, including the
Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat
of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest
coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground
level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation and everyone
in these areas should immediately follow any evacuation instructions
from local officials.

3. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland
flooding. Total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with
isolated amounts of between 20 and 25 inches, are expected over
the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia
from Saturday through Monday. Significant river flooding is
possible in these areas. Early next week Irma will also bring
periods of heavy rain to much of the southeast United States where
an average of 2 to 6 inches is forecast, with isolated higher
amounts, from North and South Carolina to Tennessee and eastern
Alabama. This includes some mountainous areas which are more prone
to flash flooding. Residents throughout the southeast states
should remain aware of the flood threat and stay tuned to
forecasts and warnings.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate with the approach
of Hurricane Irma. There is a potential for waterspouts through
Sunday ahead of Irma's arrival. At this time, Hurricane Warnings
are in effect for coastal waters of South Florida. Expect seas to
quickly build through the afternoon and into Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017/

AVIATION...
Several broken bands of convection will continue to spread
northward across the southern FL peninsula this aftn preceding the
arrival of Hurricane Irma. Based on latest radar data, this
activity appears as if it will remain scattered and we will
continue to only mention VCTS at this point. Precip will become
widespread from south-to-north this evening, with shra indicated
as prevailing weather condition thru end of TAF period. Cigs will
likely remain in the MVFR range throughout the event, but should
fall to arnd 1500 ft at the onset of more widespread rainfall. Sfc
winds in the 20G30 kt range will gradually increase to 50G60 kts
by tomorrow morning.

DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  81  88  81  90 /  90  90  90  50
Fort Lauderdale  82  86  80  89 /  90  90  80  50
Miami            81  86  81  89 /  90  90  80  60
Naples           78  83  81  86 /  90  90  90  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Monday evening for FLZ068>075-168-172>174.

     Hurricane Warning for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

     Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for FLZ066-067.

     Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for FLZ063.

AM...Hurricane Warning for AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

DISCUSSION...02/RAG
MARINE...02/RAG

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
311 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
091915-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
311 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017

...HURRICANE WARNING...
...STORM SURGE WARNING COASTAL AREAS...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

See weather.gov/srh.tropical?office=mfl#hti

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

See weather.gov/srh.tropical?office=mfl#hti

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
122 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     TROPICAL STORM   8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE      25.59N  80.10W
09/09/2017                   AMZ651             FL   C-MAN STATION

            FOWEY ROCKS RECORDED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH WITH
            GUSTS UP TO 68 MPH. THIS STATION IS AN ELEVATED SITE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1700377

CWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0117 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 ESE MIAMI INTERNATION 25.79N  80.27W
09/09/2017                   MIAMI-DADE         FL   MESONET

            A WIND GUST OF 75 MPH WAS RECORDED AT THE MIAMI
            INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SOUTH TERMINAL SITE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1700378

CWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
131 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0117 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 ESE MIAMI INTERNATION 25.79N  80.27W
09/09/2017                   MIAMI-DADE         FL   MESONET

            A WIND GUST OF 75 MPH WAS RECORDED AT THE MIAMI
            INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SOUTH TERMINAL SITE. THIS IS AN
            ELEVATED SITE AT 95 FEET.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER MFL1700378

CWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
523 PM EDT SAT SEP 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 NNW DANIA BEACH       26.07N 80.15W
09/09/2017                   BROWARD            FL   ASOS

            A WIND GUST OF 70 MPH WAS RECORDED AT THE
            FT. LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WITH A
            SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH A
            RAINBAND FROM HURRICANE IRMA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
647 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     TORNADO          1 SE WILTON MANORS      26.15N  80.12W
09/09/2017                   BROWARD            FL   AMATEUR RADIO

            A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY A HAM RADIO OPERATOR IN
            OAKLAND PARK AT 638 PM EDT

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1700379

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
713 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     WATER SPOUT      1 E FORT LAUDERDALE BEA 26.13N  80.09W
09/09/2017                   AMZ651             FL   SOCIAL MEDIA

            MULTIPLE REPORTS AND VIDEOS OF WATERSPOUT OFFSHORE FORT
            LAUDERDALE BEACH THAT CAME ASHORE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1700380

KELLY