Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
640 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 455 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low
centered over western OK. A downstream plume of tropical moisture
extended north through the lower and middle MS River Vally. An
axis of 2 inch precipitable water values extended north up the MS
River delta of the Midsouth. Several rounds of storms had affected
eastern AR, the MO bootheel and northwest TN earlier this morning,
with bowing segments producing damaging winds and several mesovortices
noted on radar. Despite the progressive nature of most of the storms,
rainfall rates exceeding 5 inches per hour has resulted in flash
flooding.

Rapid update convection-allowing short term models have struggled
a bit with timing and location of storms, as meso-lows have
formed and affected storm evolution. Expect this trend to continue,
as storms lift into the Midsouth from the Arklamiss region this
morning. Eventually, expected a well-defined back side of the
storms to form as the midlevel trof axis rotates through. Storms
should reach the TN River by early afternoon.

Although the storm total rain amounts east of the MS River will
not likely be as impressive as over eastern AR, intense rainfall
rates will still lead to heightened risk of flash flooding. The
Flash Flood Watch was therefore expanded east, to include all of
north MS and additional areas of west TN through this afternoon.

By midevening, tranquil weather will prevail over the Midsouth,
with a cool and much drier airmass prevailing. Following modest
low level moisture return on Tuesday, rain chances return on
Wednesday, associated with a deepening northern branch low dropping
into the Midsouth from the central plains. Temperatures through
late week will prevail below normal, with cloudy skies and cold
advection limiting low level atmospheric instability. 00Z GFS
progs 1000-500 mb thicknesses of 543 dm over northeast AR and the
MO bootheel Friday morning - with precipitation. Quite unusual for
early May.

Next weekend should see the upper low lift out, with weak northwest
flow aloft prevailing, downstream of upper ridging over the plains.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs

Primary aviation weather impacts (mainly TS and associated IFR
visibilities) will occur within the first 6 to 8 hours of the
TAF. Few changes from earlier TAF package, other than to back
winds to the E/SE early on due to a wake low over northwest AR.
This feature will lift into MO this morning, with pressure
gradient veering winds back to the synoptically- favored south
direction. Overall, followed the 10Z HRRR timing of TSRA.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Clay-
     Craighead-Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-
     Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-
     Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Dunklin-
     Pemiscot.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Chester-Crockett-Dyer-
     Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-Haywood-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
324 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-011030-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
324 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is an Slight Risk severe thunderstorms today for far eastern
Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel, all of west Tennessee and all of north
Mississippi.

Thunderstorms will move across the Midsouth through the afternoon,
with peak chances for severe thunderstorms during the morning and
early afternoon. Primary severe weather risks include damaging
winds and intense rainfall rates sufficient to produce flash
flooding. There is a secondary threat of short-lived tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed through this afternoon.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1116 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     RANDOLPH                34.18N 89.17W
04/30/2017                   PONTOTOC           MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
            COUNTY.

&&

ZDM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1124 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

TNZ049-088-089-301700-
Tipton TN-Fayette TN-Shelby TN-
1124 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL NOON CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Tipton County in western Tennessee...
Western Fayette County in western Tennessee...
Shelby County in western Tennessee...

At 1124 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40
mph was located near Southeast Memphis, or near Germantown, moving
north at 55 mph.

Very heavy rain is also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Tipton...western Fayette and Shelby Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3541 8999 3542 8947 3540 8947 3540 8939
      3499 8951 3499 8999
TIME...MOT...LOC 1624Z 197DEG 49KT 3503 8985

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1132 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW ALBANY              34.49N 89.02W
04/30/2017                   UNION              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN NEW ALBANY.

&&

ZDM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1151 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

TNZ048>050-301715-
Tipton TN-Lauderdale TN-Haywood TN-
1151 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1215 PM CDT
FOR...

Tipton County in western Tennessee...
Central Lauderdale County in western Tennessee...
Western Haywood County in western Tennessee...

At 1151 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40
mph was located near Dixonville, or 7 miles south of Covington,
moving north at 55 mph.

People in Tipton...central Lauderdale and western Haywood Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3578 8932 3540 8940 3540 8955 3538 8964
      3539 8970 3541 8971 3540 8973 3540 8977
      3538 8978 3539 8981 3576 8981 3578 8980
      3579 8980 3581 8978 3581 8973 3583 8970
TIME...MOT...LOC 1651Z 197DEG 49KT 3546 8962

JOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1155 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

TNZ089-090-301745-
Hardeman TN-Fayette TN-
1155 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1245 PM CDT
FOR...

Hardeman County in western Tennessee...
Southeastern Fayette County in western Tennessee...

At 1155 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40
mph was located near Bolivar, moving north at 75 mph.

People in Hardeman and southeastern Fayette Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3500 8886 3500 8931 3543 8917 3542 8884
      3539 8884 3538 8883
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 198DEG 66KT 3524 8908

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1208 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

TNZ020-021-050>052-301745-
Carroll TN-Madison TN-Crockett TN-Gibson TN-Haywood TN-
1208 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1245 PM CDT
FOR...

Southwestern Carroll County in western Tennessee...
Madison County in western Tennessee...
Crockett County in western Tennessee...
Southern Gibson County in western Tennessee...
Haywood County in western Tennessee...

At 1207 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40
mph was located near Adair, or near Jackson, moving north at 65 mph.

People in southwestern Carroll...Madison...Crockett...southern
Gibson and Haywood Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3579 8861 3557 8862 3549 8868 3543 8881
      3543 8918 3540 8919 3540 8941 3587 8933
      3598 8870 3582 8858
TIME...MOT...LOC 1707Z 188DEG 55KT 3564 8894

JOHNSON