Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Memphis, TN

270 
WWUS54 KMEG 300853
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
353 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

ARC037-077-123-300915-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-170430T0915Z/
Lee AR-St. Francis AR-Cross AR-
353 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LEE...ST. FRANCIS AND SOUTHWESTERN CROSS COUNTIES...

At 353 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Forrest City,
moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Forrest City, Madison, Palestine, Village Creek State Park, Caldwell,
Colt, Wheatley, Widener, Hawkins, Horton, Rosenbaum, Bonair,
Cottonwood Corner, Slonikers Mill, Crow Creek, New Castle, Burnt
Cane, Goodwin, Four Gums and Posey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 9114 3500 9110 3500 9105 3515 9103
      3518 9067 3497 9059 3494 9073 3493 9081
      3487 9109 3487 9112 3491 9112 3491 9113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0853Z 251DEG 43KT 3501 9083 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1125 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.UPDATE...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 944 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Skies are cloudy over much of the forecast area this evening with
temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to around 80 degrees.
Showers and thunderstorms cover much of the western half of the
forecast area. Some of the thunderstorms have produced severe
wind gusts and some large hail. These thunderstorms should calm
down some before midnight with more rain expected overnight. Have
adjusted pops for the overnight hours.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

Currently feels like summer outside with temperatures running in
the mid 80s for most and dewpoints near 70F. Gusty south winds
were adding some relief to heat indices near 90F.

For the next 36 hours...conventional and short term models
continue to struggle with the evolution of the current upper
level low in New Mexico and the convection out ahead in the
eastern Plains and Ozarks. Leaning with the slower solutions
generated from the ECMWF and NAM keeping the low delayed tomorrow
as it moves into central Kansas. In addition the surface low in
Oklahoma will move only slightly into southwest Missouri before
occluding. Storms seen currently out in western Arkansas have
been able progress a bit farther east this afternoon as midday
LZK sounding now reflects a broken cap. The activity so far has
remained subsevere despite this and the stronger midlevel flow in
the region. With the cap stronger in our region believe the
eastern extent of this activity will remain west of the
Mississippi for the majority of the night...after 30/09z thinking.
Low level winds will remained backed as the line of convection
arrives lending to some low level rotation...however midlevel
winds will also be backed...allowing for slower moving and
training of cells. Due to storm coverage...have backed off the
flash flood watch until 12z tomorrow morning. Models are also
hinting on a wake low situation developing behind the line as
gradient winds from the south will remain strong. So the highest
winds may occur outside of convection. A wind advisory may be
needed. CAPE amounts today are running around 3500 to 4000
j/kg...but will easily be cut in half tomorrow as thicker cloud
cover keeps high temperatures in the 70s. All in all a slight risk
for severe weather and a moderate flooding risk for 3-5 inches of
rainfall seems reasonable. Tomorrow evening rain and clouds will
transition east as the storm lifts into the Western Great Lakes.
Some clearing will allow for overnight lows to drop into the
50s...but a continuing breeze should damper any fog potential.

Monday and Tuesday...weak high pressure will build into the
Midsouth with dry and cool conditions. Overall temperatures will
run just below seasonal normals with a mix of clouds and sun.

Wednesday through early next weekend...mid range models have
consistently shown a shortwave dropping south from the Northern
Plains this period...with the next cutoff 500mb low forming in the
Red River Valley. Have sided with the ECMWF solution tracking the
low farther south across the ARLATEX and into Mississippi. This
should keep clouds and a rain threat across the area each day with
temperatures remaining below normal. Cut-off lows are known for
remaining stationary well beyond model forecasts so confidence is
low for any big weather improvements through next Saturday.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

Attempted to time the next round of thunderstorms based on HRRR
data.

Model guidance tendency has been to slow down the onset of
showers/thunderstorms...will continue that trend. Brief IFR or
even LIRF conditions due to heavy rain can be expected in
association with any thunderstorms. However prevailing conditions
should remain MVFR or better.

Backed off of the development of low clouds overnight....but any
that do develop should quickly dissipate after sunrise.
Winds will remain Southerly through the TAF period between 10 and
15kt overnight 15-20kt tomorrow. Higher gusts to around 35kt will
return tomorrow. Winds will remain strong through 31/06z.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Sunday through Sunday afternoon
     for Clay-Craighead-Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-
     Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Sunday through Sunday afternoon
     for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Sunday through Sunday evening
     for Calhoun-Coahoma-DeSoto-Lafayette-Marshall-Panola-
     Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Sunday through Sunday evening
     for Crockett-Dyer-Fayette-Haywood-Lake-Lauderdale-Obion-
     Shelby-Tipton.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
324 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-011030-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
324 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is an Slight Risk severe thunderstorms today for far eastern
Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel, all of west Tennessee and all of north
Mississippi.

Thunderstorms will move across the Midsouth through the afternoon,
with peak chances for severe thunderstorms during the morning and
early afternoon. Primary severe weather risks include damaging
winds and intense rainfall rates sufficient to produce flash
flooding. There is a secondary threat of short-lived tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed through this afternoon.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
249 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
04/30/2017                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING ON RACE STREET DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
252 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MONETTE                 35.89N 90.34W
04/30/2017                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLE AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
259 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE JONESBORO         35.78N 90.67W
04/30/2017                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON HWY 163 BLOCKING ROAD

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
302 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LAKE CITY               35.82N 90.45W
04/30/2017                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLES DOWN

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
317 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 AM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NW STEELE             36.17N 89.95W
04/30/2017                   PEMISCOT           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED IN TOWN OF GOBLER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
322 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW UNION CITY         36.43N 89.06W
04/30/2017                   OBION              TN   PUBLIC

            1 INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN AND SHINGLES BLOWN OFF ROOF.

&&