Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Memphis, TN

757 
WWUS54 KMEG 300842
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
342 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

TNC045-053-300852-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-170430T0900Z/
Dyer TN-Gibson TN-
342 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DYER AND
NORTHWESTERN GIBSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
western and west Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3617 8853 3612 8882 3649 8891 3650 8852
TIME...MOT...LOC 0842Z 251DEG 43KT 3637 8864 

$$

TNC131-183-300900-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-170430T0900Z/
Weakley TN-Obion TN-
342 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
FOR WEAKLEY AND NORTHEASTERN OBION COUNTIES...

At 342 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Palmersville,
or 12 miles east of Martin, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Martin, Fulton, Dresden, Greenfield, Gleason, Sharon, Latham,
Palmersville, Matheny Grove, Sandhill, Ore Springs, Hyndsver,
Ruthville, Mc Connell, Ralston, Brundige, Pisgah and Pillowville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3617 8853 3612 8882 3649 8891 3650 8852
TIME...MOT...LOC 0842Z 251DEG 43KT 3637 8864 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1125 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.UPDATE...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 944 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Skies are cloudy over much of the forecast area this evening with
temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to around 80 degrees.
Showers and thunderstorms cover much of the western half of the
forecast area. Some of the thunderstorms have produced severe
wind gusts and some large hail. These thunderstorms should calm
down some before midnight with more rain expected overnight. Have
adjusted pops for the overnight hours.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

Currently feels like summer outside with temperatures running in
the mid 80s for most and dewpoints near 70F. Gusty south winds
were adding some relief to heat indices near 90F.

For the next 36 hours...conventional and short term models
continue to struggle with the evolution of the current upper
level low in New Mexico and the convection out ahead in the
eastern Plains and Ozarks. Leaning with the slower solutions
generated from the ECMWF and NAM keeping the low delayed tomorrow
as it moves into central Kansas. In addition the surface low in
Oklahoma will move only slightly into southwest Missouri before
occluding. Storms seen currently out in western Arkansas have
been able progress a bit farther east this afternoon as midday
LZK sounding now reflects a broken cap. The activity so far has
remained subsevere despite this and the stronger midlevel flow in
the region. With the cap stronger in our region believe the
eastern extent of this activity will remain west of the
Mississippi for the majority of the night...after 30/09z thinking.
Low level winds will remained backed as the line of convection
arrives lending to some low level rotation...however midlevel
winds will also be backed...allowing for slower moving and
training of cells. Due to storm coverage...have backed off the
flash flood watch until 12z tomorrow morning. Models are also
hinting on a wake low situation developing behind the line as
gradient winds from the south will remain strong. So the highest
winds may occur outside of convection. A wind advisory may be
needed. CAPE amounts today are running around 3500 to 4000
j/kg...but will easily be cut in half tomorrow as thicker cloud
cover keeps high temperatures in the 70s. All in all a slight risk
for severe weather and a moderate flooding risk for 3-5 inches of
rainfall seems reasonable. Tomorrow evening rain and clouds will
transition east as the storm lifts into the Western Great Lakes.
Some clearing will allow for overnight lows to drop into the
50s...but a continuing breeze should damper any fog potential.

Monday and Tuesday...weak high pressure will build into the
Midsouth with dry and cool conditions. Overall temperatures will
run just below seasonal normals with a mix of clouds and sun.

Wednesday through early next weekend...mid range models have
consistently shown a shortwave dropping south from the Northern
Plains this period...with the next cutoff 500mb low forming in the
Red River Valley. Have sided with the ECMWF solution tracking the
low farther south across the ARLATEX and into Mississippi. This
should keep clouds and a rain threat across the area each day with
temperatures remaining below normal. Cut-off lows are known for
remaining stationary well beyond model forecasts so confidence is
low for any big weather improvements through next Saturday.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

Attempted to time the next round of thunderstorms based on HRRR
data.

Model guidance tendency has been to slow down the onset of
showers/thunderstorms...will continue that trend. Brief IFR or
even LIRF conditions due to heavy rain can be expected in
association with any thunderstorms. However prevailing conditions
should remain MVFR or better.

Backed off of the development of low clouds overnight....but any
that do develop should quickly dissipate after sunrise.
Winds will remain Southerly through the TAF period between 10 and
15kt overnight 15-20kt tomorrow. Higher gusts to around 35kt will
return tomorrow. Winds will remain strong through 31/06z.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Sunday through Sunday afternoon
     for Clay-Craighead-Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-
     Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Sunday through Sunday afternoon
     for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Sunday through Sunday evening
     for Calhoun-Coahoma-DeSoto-Lafayette-Marshall-Panola-
     Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Sunday through Sunday evening
     for Crockett-Dyer-Fayette-Haywood-Lake-Lauderdale-Obion-
     Shelby-Tipton.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
729 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-010230-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
729 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms west of a line
from Corning, Arkansas to Waldenberg, Arkansas. There is an Slight
Risk of severe thunderstorms along and west of a line from Union
City, Tennessee to Charleston, Mississippi. There is a Marginal
Risk of severe thunderstorms west of a line from Parsons,
Tennessee to Calhoun City, Mississippi.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight mainly west of
the Mississippi River this afternoon and this evening. Coverage of
storms will increase towards daybreak Sunday.

The primary severe weather risks are damaging winds, large hail
and potential for localized flash flooding. A secondary risk of a
tornado will exist mainly in the Enhanced Risk area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms over all of the
Midsouth Sunday. Primary risks will be damaging winds and heavy
rainfall rates sufficient to produce more widespread flash
flooding. Secondary threats will include large hail and isolated
brief tornadoes.

Non-thunderstorm winds may reach advisory criteria on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be necessary through Sunday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
244 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 AM     FLOOD            WALNUT RIDGE            36.07N 90.96W
04/30/2017                   LAWRENCE           AR   PUBLIC

            WATER ON ROAD ON HWY 412

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
246 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PARAGOULD               36.06N 90.51W
04/30/2017                   GREENE             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LAKE STREET IN PARAGOULD FLOODED AND CLOSED DUE TO HEAVY
            RAINFALL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
249 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
04/30/2017                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING ON RACE STREET DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
252 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MONETTE                 35.89N 90.34W
04/30/2017                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLE AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
259 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE JONESBORO         35.78N 90.67W
04/30/2017                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON HWY 163 BLOCKING ROAD

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
302 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LAKE CITY               35.82N 90.45W
04/30/2017                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLES DOWN

&&