Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
212 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change from the previous forecast as the upper ridge that
has been over the SE U.S. for the past week shifts back west over
the next few days. Scattered showers and storms currently
developing will slowly dissipate this evening, but not before
dropping heavy rain across some locations. The best chance for
rain today looks to be from the Davis Mountains east across the
southern Permian Basin along an instability axis. Increasing mid
level heights Friday into next week will suppress most
convection. The exception will be in the higher terrain where
upslope flow will trigger at least isolated storms each day. Even
with the ridge building back over the region, it looks to be in a
weakened state. This, along with all the rain we have seen as of
late will help keep temperatures from getting too hot. Expect
daytime highs to stay generally a few degrees above normal through
early next week.

By the middle to end of next week long range models show the
ridge weakening somewhat. This may allow for an increase in
moisture and rain chances as an inverted trough moves west into
the area. The ECMWF even shows a cold front by the middle of next
week, but won't bite on this solution just yet. Nonetheless expect
changes to the forecast in the coming days.

***On a side note, the current forecast for the solar eclipse on
 Monday looks interesting. It looks like the monsoon will be in
 full swing across far West Texas into NM Sunday night into Monday
 morning. It is possible clouds will stick around through much of
 day, especially across SE NM and the Upper Trans Pecos. The best
 shot for clear to partly cloudy skies at the time of the eclipse
 looks to be over the Permian Basin down the the Big Bend. We
 will continue to fine tune the forecast as we get closer to
 Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  96  73  97 /  20  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       71  95  72  92 /  10  20  10  20
Dryden                         76  96  75  98 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  72  94  72  96 /  20  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 66  85  67  82 /  10  30  20  30
Hobbs                          69  91  69  92 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          64  87  63  88 /  20  40  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           73  95  73  96 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         73  95  73  96 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           72  96  73  97 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

44/29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
148 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-181900-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
148 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 /1248 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms are expected to develop again this afternoon and
tonight, especially from the Big Bend to the southeast Permian basin.
Any storms that do develop may be accompanied by frequent lightning,
hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

44

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
322 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

TXZ081-172100-
Big Bend Area TX-
322 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY
UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 321 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles north of Study Butte, or 26 miles northeast of Lajitas, moving
northwest at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Terlingua Ranch Lodge and Terlingua Ranch Airport.

LAT...LON 2938 10359 2975 10380 2977 10380 2987 10352
      2946 10331
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 157DEG 13KT 2959 10355

80

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
405 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

TXZ081-172145-
Big Bend Area TX-
405 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

At 405 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northeast of Persimmon Gap, or 32 miles southeast of Marathon,
moving northwest at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Brewster
County.

LAT...LON 2973 10288 2966 10307 3004 10338 3015 10302
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 150DEG 23KT 2978 10303

80

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
424 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

TXZ051-172230-
Martin TX-
424 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MARTIN COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

At 424 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Lenorah, or 11 miles north of Stanton, moving northwest
at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lenorah and Grady.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3248 10181 3230 10170 3223 10170 3232 10201
      3244 10194
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 131DEG 12KT 3229 10173

67