Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
212 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change from the previous forecast as the upper ridge that
has been over the SE U.S. for the past week shifts back west over
the next few days. Scattered showers and storms currently
developing will slowly dissipate this evening, but not before
dropping heavy rain across some locations. The best chance for
rain today looks to be from the Davis Mountains east across the
southern Permian Basin along an instability axis. Increasing mid
level heights Friday into next week will suppress most
convection. The exception will be in the higher terrain where
upslope flow will trigger at least isolated storms each day. Even
with the ridge building back over the region, it looks to be in a
weakened state. This, along with all the rain we have seen as of
late will help keep temperatures from getting too hot. Expect
daytime highs to stay generally a few degrees above normal through
early next week.

By the middle to end of next week long range models show the
ridge weakening somewhat. This may allow for an increase in
moisture and rain chances as an inverted trough moves west into
the area. The ECMWF even shows a cold front by the middle of next
week, but won't bite on this solution just yet. Nonetheless expect
changes to the forecast in the coming days.

***On a side note, the current forecast for the solar eclipse on
 Monday looks interesting. It looks like the monsoon will be in
 full swing across far West Texas into NM Sunday night into Monday
 morning. It is possible clouds will stick around through much of
 day, especially across SE NM and the Upper Trans Pecos. The best
 shot for clear to partly cloudy skies at the time of the eclipse
 looks to be over the Permian Basin down the the Big Bend. We
 will continue to fine tune the forecast as we get closer to
 Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  96  73  97 /  20  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       71  95  72  92 /  10  20  10  20
Dryden                         76  96  75  98 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  72  94  72  96 /  20  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 66  85  67  82 /  10  30  20  30
Hobbs                          69  91  69  92 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          64  87  63  88 /  20  40  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           73  95  73  96 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         73  95  73  96 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           72  96  73  97 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

44/29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
148 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-181900-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
148 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 /1248 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms are expected to develop again this afternoon and
tonight, especially from the Big Bend to the southeast Permian basin.
Any storms that do develop may be accompanied by frequent lightning,
hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

44

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