Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
447 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.UPDATE...

Update to expand PoPs over southwest Texas into this evening. The
17/00Z Aviaition Discussion is included below also.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Above normal temperatures and ample low level moisture are fostering
the development of fairly widespread thunderstorms over the Davis
Mountains, Marfa Plateau, Stockton Plateau and south near the Big
Bend region this afternoon.  There is a pronounced lack of shear
under weak westerly flow aloft, but surface based instability is
2500 west to 4000 east J/Kg according to the latest SPC Mesoscale
Analysis.  Strong to severe storms continue to develop due to the
high instability, despite the lack of shear and resultant
disorganized thunderstorms.

None of the latest, or earlier, model runs are capturing
thunderstorm development well, but expect storms will continue into
the evening and develop further east into the mentioned instability
axis, and as a modest low level jet strengthens around sunset.  Have
expanded PoPs farther west into this evening, and tweaked PoPs
between 17/00Z and 17/06Z.  Hail, strong winds and locally heavy
rainfall will be the main threats from these storms, which may not
diminish until 17/03Z or after.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions to prevail overnight, except perhaps at
KFST and KMAF where TSRA may impinge. The storms could produce
gusty winds and hail, but probability is too low to mention at
either terminal. Expect VFR conditions again on Monday, but more
storms will develop Monday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 209 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017/

Nondescript WSW mid level flow with low level mstr backed w into the
mtns today and this weakish flow aloft will favor a wwd position of
the dryline this PM. Instablilty e of the dryline will be
modulated by steep 7h-5h LR's around 8 C/KM, surface dewpoints in
the M50s- M60s, along with an abundance of insolation. MLCAPES
will be around 3000 J/KG or higher. For the last several days
there has been a consistent signal that storms will develop INVOF
eastern slopes Davis Mtns to Glass Mtns with storms more isolated
along the dryline across the PB. If there is limiting factor today
is would be shear/weak mid level wind fields. However instability
will make up for it, IMO. Supercell potential will be limited,
but severe storms seems likely. Across the PB storms will
dissipate by mid evening, but are more likely to persist across
the Lower Trans Pecos as they track e-se late into the evening.
PoP forecast looks ok, but will include a mention of severe
storms. ECMWF has been consistent with storms across the far
eastern CWFA overnight, contingent upon storms forming to n and
tracking e-se overnight. We are less confident about this with
lack of support aloft. Low level mstr will again hold a wwd
position Monday and a few more storms are expected across the
Trans Pecos (Davis Mtns e), less along the dryline in the PB. PoPs
will be absent from the forecast Tue/Wed with drier air advancing
farther e each day. Meanwhile, high temps will increase much
moreso then as thermal ridge expands, highs in the 90s will be
widespread. Wed will probably be the warmest day of this forecast
cycle. A cold front may just make it into nrn CWFA Thur PM, but
still unseasonably warm for most all areas. Warmer yet Friday
ahead a cold front that will result in cooler temps next weekend
(below normal).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  84  61  87 /  40  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       51  90  52  92 /  10   0  10   0
Dryden                         64  86  61  86 /  60  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  59  86  60  91 /  40  20  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 59  85  57  85 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          54  83  57  88 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                          47  82  49  86 /  30  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           62  85  60  88 /  30  20  10   0
Odessa                         61  85  60  88 /  20  20  10   0
Wink                           60  89  59  92 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99/

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
129 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-171830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
129 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 /1229 PM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

There is a chance of thunderstorms through tonight, mainly along and
east of a Lamesa to Pecos to Marfa line. A few storms could become
severe with damaging winds and large hail possible, especially across
the Stockton Plateau and Big Bend. Brief heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning will also accompany the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Monday and Monday night
across west Texas. A few storms could produce brief strong winds and
hail. Brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will also
accompany the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

There is a 30 percent chance of spotter activation this afternoon
and this evening.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
754 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             LENORAH                 32.31N 101.88W
04/16/2017  E1.00 INCH       MARTIN             TX   PUBLIC

&&

MSCHULDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
758 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             DRYDEN                  30.05N 102.12W
04/16/2017  E1.00 INCH       TERRELL            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MATT.SALERNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
815 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             MIDLAND                 32.00N 102.08W
04/16/2017  E1.75 INCH       MIDLAND            TX   PUBLIC

            WALL ST AND MIDKIFF RD.

&&

MATT.SALERNO

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