Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

April 16, 2017Andrews County, Gaines County, Texas

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 16, 2017, 7:52 PM CDT for Andrews County, Gaines County, Texas. It was in force for 38 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Apr 16, 2017, 7:52 PM CDT (00:52 UTC)
Expired: Apr 16, 2017, 8:30 PM CDT
In force: 38 min
Issued by: NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Andrews County, TX, Gaines County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Apr 16, 8:21 PM CDT	HAIL 1.75	9 S Seminole, TX
Apr 16, 8:22 PM CDT	HAIL 1	9 S Seminole, TX

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 29 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 69 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2459 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -16 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1590 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -59 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 16 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

274 
WUUS54 KMAF 170052
SVRMAF
TXC003-165-170130-
/O.NEW.KMAF.SV.W.0098.170417T0052Z-170417T0130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
752 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

The National Weather Service in Midland has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  North central Andrews County in western Texas...
  South central Gaines County in western Texas...

* Until 830 PM CDT

* At 751 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northeast 
  of Frankel City, or 11 miles northwest of Andrews, moving north 
  northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
           wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Andrews, Gaines County Airport, Florey and Andrews County Airport. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3232 10255 3242 10277 3270 10271 3261 10241
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 199DEG 12KT 3247 10265 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

80

1 follow-up statement

930 
WWUS54 KMAF 170111
SVSMAF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
811 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

TXC003-165-170130-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-170417T0130Z/
Andrews TX-Gaines TX-
811 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL ANDREWS AND SOUTH CENTRAL GAINES COUNTIES...

At 811 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest 
of Gaines County Airport, or 9 miles southwest of Seminole, moving 
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Andrews, Gaines County Airport, Florey and Andrews County Airport. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3232 10255 3242 10277 3270 10271 3261 10241
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 174DEG 15KT 3259 10272 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

80

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 16, 4:47 PM CDT, 3 hours 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 16, 4:47 PM CDT, 3 hours 5 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
447 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.UPDATE...

Update to expand PoPs over southwest Texas into this evening. The
17/00Z Aviaition Discussion is included below also.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Above normal temperatures and ample low level moisture are fostering
the development of fairly widespread thunderstorms over the Davis
Mountains, Marfa Plateau, Stockton Plateau and south near the Big
Bend region this afternoon.  There is a pronounced lack of shear
under weak westerly flow aloft, but surface based instability is
2500 west to 4000 east J/Kg according to the latest SPC Mesoscale
Analysis.  Strong to severe storms continue to develop due to the
high instability, despite the lack of shear and resultant
disorganized thunderstorms.

None of the latest, or earlier, model runs are capturing
thunderstorm development well, but expect storms will continue into
the evening and develop further east into the mentioned instability
axis, and as a modest low level jet strengthens around sunset.  Have
expanded PoPs farther west into this evening, and tweaked PoPs
between 17/00Z and 17/06Z.  Hail, strong winds and locally heavy
rainfall will be the main threats from these storms, which may not
diminish until 17/03Z or after.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions to prevail overnight, except perhaps at
KFST and KMAF where TSRA may impinge. The storms could produce
gusty winds and hail, but probability is too low to mention at
either terminal. Expect VFR conditions again on Monday, but more
storms will develop Monday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 209 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017/

Nondescript WSW mid level flow with low level mstr backed w into the
mtns today and this weakish flow aloft will favor a wwd position of
the dryline this PM. Instablilty e of the dryline will be
modulated by steep 7h-5h LR's around 8 C/KM, surface dewpoints in
the M50s- M60s, along with an abundance of insolation. MLCAPES
will be around 3000 J/KG or higher. For the last several days
there has been a consistent signal that storms will develop INVOF
eastern slopes Davis Mtns to Glass Mtns with storms more isolated
along the dryline across the PB. If there is limiting factor today
is would be shear/weak mid level wind fields. However instability
will make up for it, IMO. Supercell potential will be limited,
but severe storms seems likely. Across the PB storms will
dissipate by mid evening, but are more likely to persist across
the Lower Trans Pecos as they track e-se late into the evening.
PoP forecast looks ok, but will include a mention of severe
storms. ECMWF has been consistent with storms across the far
eastern CWFA overnight, contingent upon storms forming to n and
tracking e-se overnight. We are less confident about this with
lack of support aloft. Low level mstr will again hold a wwd
position Monday and a few more storms are expected across the
Trans Pecos (Davis Mtns e), less along the dryline in the PB. PoPs
will be absent from the forecast Tue/Wed with drier air advancing
farther e each day. Meanwhile, high temps will increase much
moreso then as thermal ridge expands, highs in the 90s will be
widespread. Wed will probably be the warmest day of this forecast
cycle. A cold front may just make it into nrn CWFA Thur PM, but
still unseasonably warm for most all areas. Warmer yet Friday
ahead a cold front that will result in cooler temps next weekend
(below normal).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  84  61  87 /  40  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       51  90  52  92 /  10   0  10   0
Dryden                         64  86  61  86 /  60  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  59  86  60  91 /  40  20  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 59  85  57  85 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          54  83  57  88 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                          47  82  49  86 /  30  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           62  85  60  88 /  30  20  10   0
Odessa                         61  85  60  88 /  20  20  10   0
Wink                           60  89  59  92 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99/

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 16, 1:29 PM CDT, 6 hours 23 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
129 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-171830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
129 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 /1229 PM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

There is a chance of thunderstorms through tonight, mainly along and
east of a Lamesa to Pecos to Marfa line. A few storms could become
severe with damaging winds and large hail possible, especially across
the Stockton Plateau and Big Bend. Brief heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning will also accompany the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Monday and Monday night
across west Texas. A few storms could produce brief strong winds and
hail. Brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will also
accompany the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

There is a 30 percent chance of spotter activation this afternoon
and this evening.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 16, 6:55 PM CDT, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
655 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             WEST ODESSA             31.84N 102.50W
04/16/2017  M1.25 INCH       ECTOR              TX   PUBLIC

&&

MATT.SALERNO

Local storm report, Apr 16, 7:04 PM CDT, 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
704 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     HAIL             1 S ANDREWS             32.31N 102.55W
04/16/2017  E1.00 INCH       Andrews            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MSCHULDT

Local storm report, Apr 16, 7:10 PM CDT, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
710 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     HAIL             GOLDSMITH               31.98N 102.62W
04/16/2017  E1.75 INCH       ECTOR              TX   PUBLIC

&&

MSCHULDT

Special weather statement, Apr 16, 7:22 PM CDT, 30 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
722 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

TXZ045-050-170115-
Andrews TX-Gaines TX-
722 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN ANDREWS AND SOUTHWESTERN
GAINES COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 722 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Andrews, moving north at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Andrews, Frankel City and Florey.

LAT...LON 3227 10257 3215 10291 3254 10306 3261 10244
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 158DEG 10KT 3233 10266

80

Local storm report, Apr 16, 7:37 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
737 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     TSTM WND GST     PERSIMMON GAP           29.66N 103.18W
04/16/2017  M67.00 MPH       BREWSTER           TX   MESONET

&&

AKL

Special weather statement, Apr 16, 7:52 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
752 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

TXZ051-052-062-063-170200-
Midland TX-Martin TX-Glasscock TX-Howard TX-
752 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GLASSCOCK...
NORTHEASTERN MIDLAND...SOUTHERN HOWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN MARTIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 752 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lomax, or near Stanton, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Big Spring, Stanton, Forsan, Lomax, Lees, South Haven, Elbow,
Fairview, Big Spring Country Club, Big Spring McMahon-Wrinkle Airpark
and Midway.

THIS INCLUDES Interstate 20 between mile markers 154 and 185.

LAT...LON 3194 10170 3209 10186 3242 10156 3215 10119
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 225DEG 25KT 3207 10170

67

The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 16, 7:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Andrews, Ector, Gaines, Martin	67 min
Apr 16, 7:22 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Andrews	53 min
Apr 16, 7:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Glasscock, Midland, Reagan, Upton	42 min
Apr 16, 7:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Terrell	64 min
Apr 16, 7:52 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Howard	68 min
Apr 16, 8:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Reagan, Upton	27 min
Apr 16, 8:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Glasscock, Howard	55 min
Apr 16, 8:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Andrews, Gaines	30 min
Apr 16, 8:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Reagan	43 min
Apr 16, 9:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Glasscock	44 min
Apr 16, 9:27 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Reagan	3 hr
Apr 16, 9:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Reagan	43 min
Apr 17, 3:21 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Brewster	54 min
Apr 17, 4:24 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Brewster	66 min
Apr 17, 5:38 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Brewster	52 min
Apr 17, 5:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	62 min
Apr 17, 5:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Brewster, Pecos	33 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2017 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.