Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
216 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery depicts an upper low moving e across the nrn MX
along with hints of a minor shrtwv trof to the NW. Dryline will take
wwd position again today, possibly near the TX/NM late by 4 PM. An
elevated mixed layer is still in place with 7h-5h LR's around 8 C/KM
however surface moisture is not as high e of the dryline and as such
CAPES have come down from yesterday unsually high values, but bulk
shear does look better. Meanwhile low level convergence will be
maximized near the dryline, but weakest CINH is much farther e. As
it is, the best chance for tstms will be across the Lower Trans
Pecos where SB CINH is not as much of an issue in proximity to
elevated heat sources and closer to aforementioned upper low. Still
there is the possibility that storms will develop across the PB per
the ECMWF within weakly difluent nw flow aloft. An isolated to
strong/severe storm is still possible today. Convective concerns
diminish on Tue with lower dwpnts, less steep LR's and mid level
ridging. Tue-Fri still looks to be unseasonably warm with Wed the
warmest of those days. Uncertainty exist WRT a weak cold front
for Thur, does it get to nrn CWFA or I-20? A stronger cold front
is still expected to arrive Late Fri night/early Sat AM resulting
in temps below normal next weekend. Low level mstr will not have
enough time to return by Mon, so even though it will be warmer Mon
it will be dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     59  86  61  92 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       55  92  57  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62  85  64  93 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  60  90  62  93 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 58  83  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          56  86  58  90 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          50  85  52  88 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           60  87  62  92 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         60  87  62  91 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           60  90  62  96 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
159 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-181900-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
159 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017 /1259 PM MDT Mon Apr 17 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across the
Permian Basin southwest through the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend
regions. A few storms could become strong to severe with damaging
winds and large hail possible. Brief heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning will also accompany the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
321 PM CDT MON APR 17 2017

TXZ074-081-172115-
Big Bend Area TX-Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
321 PM CDT MON APR 17 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 321 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Altuda, or 12 miles southeast of Alpine, moving
southwest at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elephant Mountain Wildlife Management Area.

LAT...LON 2992 10372 3033 10379 3033 10354 3019 10335
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 054DEG 7KT 3020 10356

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