Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
303 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Active weather pattern is expected through this evening as a
strong upper level storm system tracks through New Mexico. Strong
lift and instability ahead of the upper low and dryline/cold front
will produce thunderstorms across portions of southeast New Mexico
near the upper low, and especially across the central and eastern
portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos ahead of the
dryline/cold front. Some of the storms will be severe the remainder
of this afternoon and this evening in the eastern Permian Basin
ahead of the dryline and cold front as strong instability and lift
interact with a strongly sheared atmosphere. In addition, winds
will increase significantly across the mountains and the plains
immediate adjacent to the mountains behind a dryline surge. Will
continue the High Wind Warning through 8 pm MDT for the Guadalupe
Mountains and the Wind Advisory for the southeast New Mexico
Plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn Highway 54 Corridor, Davis
Mountains and Marfa Plateau.

Conditions should improve significantly after midnight as the dry
line/cold front moves into central texas and winds diminish with
nocturnal cooling.

The upper low is forecast to track slowly across the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles on Wednesday. Much cooler and below normal
temperatures are expected across southeast New Mexico and much
of west Texas behind the cold front. There will also be a chance
of wraparound cyclonic showers across southeast New Mexico and the
northern and central Permian Basin associated with the upper low.
It will be windy again across the region and Wind Advisories will
probably be needed across portions of the forecast area.

Beyond Wednesday above normal temperatures are expected to resume
again. Another Pacific storm system will approach the region
Friday and will only slowly move through the forecast area
Saturday and Sunday. There are model differences in the track and
intensity of this upper low. However it appears that the bulk of
the precipitation with this system will track east of the forecast
area. At this time it appears that winds will be the main concerns
with this system with breezy to windy conditions developing.

Another system is forecast to track across the central or southern
Plains early to the middle of next week. This system also looks
like it will be mainly a wind producer as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Red Flag Warning through mid evening along and
west of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line. As an upper level storm
system approaches New Mexico late today the associated surface dryline
is sharpening. 20 foot winds of 20 mph or greater are beginning to
materialize in the warning area as the gradient increases. Min rh/s
are a bit more problematic as some areas are currently struggling
to reach 15 percent or less. Will error on the side of caution
and continue the Red Flag Warning due to high temperatures 5-10
degrees above normal and fuels dry enough for high to very high
fire danger. In addition virga showers and dry lightning can not
be ruled out in the Warning area behind the dryline through early
this evening near the upper low.

Mainly poor to fair recovery is expected tonight. Cooler and more
moist conditions are expected tomorrow behind the cold front
across much of the region despite windy conditions expected. The
exceptions could be portions of the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend,
Presidio Valley. Later shifts will need to monitor these areas
for a possible Red Flag Warning or Fire Danger Statement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  69  46  77 /  40  20  10   0
Carlsbad                       48  61  42  80 /  10  30  10   0
Dryden                         54  82  51  83 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  68  46  81 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  55  43  72 /   0  20   0   0
Hobbs                          45  53  40  75 /  10  30  10   0
Marfa                          42  67  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  65  47  77 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                         50  61  45  78 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                           50  64  44  80 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

44/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
200 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-291900-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
200 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 /100 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Severe thunderstorms are likely over the upper Colorado River
Valley, eastern Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and lower Trans
Pecos through late this evening.  Large hail, damaging winds, and
frequent lightning are the main threats from any storms that do
develop.  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect.

Warm, dry, and windy conditions will result in critical fire weather
conditions along and west of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line,
excluding the Guadalupe, Davis, and Apache Mountains through early
evening.  A Red Flag Warning is in effect.

Strong west winds will continue through the Guadalupe Mountains
through early evening.  A High Wind Warning is in effect.  Windy
conditions are also occurring across the Southeast New Mexico Plains,
Van Horn and the Highway 54 corridor, Marfa Plateau, and Davis and
Apache Mountains through early evening. A Wind Advisory is in
effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A few hours of critical fire weather conditions will be possible
along the Rio Grande Wednesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested late this afternoon or this
evening.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
125 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

TXZ062-063-281900-
Midland TX-Glasscock TX-
125 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GLASSCOCK AND EASTERN
MIDLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 125 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Spraberry, or 14 miles south of Greenwood, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Garden City, Greenwood, Lees and Spraberry.

LAT...LON 3189 10136 3174 10189 3181 10195 3209 10188
      3208 10135
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 239DEG 48KT 3181 10188

49

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
145 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

TXZ047-048-281930-
Scurry TX-Borden TX-
145 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SCURRY AND
NORTHEASTERN BORDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 145 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fluvanna, or 14 miles east of Gail, moving north at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fluvanna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Midland.

&&

LAT...LON 3273 10112 3273 10126 3296 10124 3297 10105
      3297 10100
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 197DEG 29KT 3283 10120

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
201 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

TXZ068-069-075-281945-
Pecos TX-Crane TX-Upton TX-
201 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PECOS...
SOUTHEASTERN CRANE AND SOUTHWESTERN UPTON COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM
CDT...

At 201 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Girvin, or 13 miles northwest of Bakersfield, moving northeast at 20
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
McCamey, Girvin, Upton County Airport and King Mountain.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
western and southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3108 10224 3109 10237 3107 10233 3105 10231
      3105 10230 3093 10248 3106 10254 3136 10249
      3137 10223 3127 10194
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 207DEG 18KT 3104 10245

49

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
215 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

TXZ047-048-052-053-063-282000-
Mitchell TX-Scurry TX-Glasscock TX-Howard TX-Borden TX-
215 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GLASSCOCK...
NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL...SOUTHWESTERN SCURRY...SOUTHEASTERN BORDEN AND
EASTERN HOWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 214 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
South Haven, or near Big Spring, moving northeast at 25 mph. Other
strong storms are across Howard, Borden and Scurry counties.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Big Spring, Coahoma, Forsan, Sand Springs, Lees, South Haven, J B
Thomas Reservoir, Knapp, Elbow, Vincent, Randalls Corner, Big Spring
Country Club and Midway.

THIS INCLUDES Interstate 20 between mile markers 178 and 198.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3209 10124 3209 10126 3202 10126 3186 10132
      3189 10164 3281 10126 3276 10101
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 221DEG 20KT 3215 10147

49

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
309 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 PM     HAIL             5 W MCCAMEY             31.13N 102.30W
03/28/2017  E1.25 INCH       CRANE              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JULIE.PHILLIPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
326 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     HAIL             12 N RANKIN             31.40N 101.94W
03/28/2017  E1.75 INCH       UPTON              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RHLUCHAN