Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

564 
WWUS54 KMAF 160055
SVSMAF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
755 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

TXC335-415-160115-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0195.000000T0000Z-170616T0115Z/
Mitchell TX-Scurry TX-
755 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL AND SOUTHERN SCURRY COUNTIES...

At 755 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hermleigh, or 9
miles southeast of Snyder, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Snyder, China Grove, Valley View, Loraine, Hermleigh, Inadale, Us-
84 Near The Nolan-Fisher County Line, I-20 Near The Nolan-
Mitchell County Line, Randalls Corner, Us-180 Near The Fisher-
Scurry County Line, Winston Field, Union, Buford, Dunn and Midway.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 221 and 228.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3234 10075 3272 10112 3288 10073 3276 10066
      3240 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 321DEG 31KT 3261 10080 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
624 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered storms over the Trans Pecos may spread into Permian
Basin this evening. Only have mention of storms in PEQ and INK
for the next several hours. Otherwise VFR with a south wind.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 529 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/

UPDATE...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued.

DISCUSSION...
Updated zones for new watch for Trans Pecos and Permian Basin.
Storms currently over Reeves Co expected to move east and expand
in coverage.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
It looks like one more evening of severe weather as a dryline
sharpens (below an upper level disturbance) and moves east from
the eastern slope of the mountains into the upper Trans Pecos and
western Permian Basin this evening. East of the dryline, cape
values of 1500 to 3500 j/kg and wind shear of 30 to 40 knots
should yield the potential for another round of severe storms with
very large hail and damaging winds possible across mainly west
Texas. Much of the activity will die during the evening with loss
of strong diurnal heating and passing of the shortwave.

After this evening the big weather story will be the increasing
heat Friday and Saturday across west Texas and southeast New
Mexico. 850 millibar model temperature forecasts suggest that
Heat Advisory criteria will likely be met Friday and especially
Saturday across a significant portion of the forecast area. An
Excessive Heat Warning may even be needed across portions of the
Big Bend and Presidio Valley near the Rio Grande River Friday and
or Saturday where temperatures may exceed 115 degrees. Will let
the midnight shift make the final calls for these events with the
most up to date guidance.

An upper level trough moving across the United States and
Canadian border will drag a cold front through the forecast area
Sunday knocking temperatures back from excessive levels.
Temperatures are forecast to still be well above normal, however.
There could be isolated thunderstorms with this front but
confidence was not high enough at this time to mention.

Upper level ridge is forecast to remain nearly stationary across
the desert southwest next week with above normal temperatures.
Isolated diurnal thunderstorms can not be ruled out in upslope
flow in the mountains in very intense heating. There cold also be
periods of isolated convection in portions of the plains but
confidence in timing and locations were not high enough to
mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74 105  74 107 /  20  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       66 107  66 109 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         74 108  73 108 /  20  20   0  10
Fort Stockton                  74 108  72 107 /  30  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71 100  70 102 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          66 101  66 105 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          64 100  61 100 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           74 106  74 106 /  20  10   0  10
Odessa                         73 106  73 105 /  20  10   0  10
Wink                           70 110  67 110 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
137 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-161845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
137 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017 /1237 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon and evening. Storms
are favored to initially develop west of Fort Stockton and then move
and expand east and northeast across the Trans Pecos and into the
Permian Basin. Severe storms are possible, which could produce
damaging winds, large hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes and brief heavy rainfall.

Fire danger will be high across Southeast New Mexico and parts of
Trans Pecos due to the unseasonably hot temperatures and dry air.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Friday and Saturday
afternoons across portions of the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast New
Mexico, and the Trans Pecos. Hot temperatures and consequent low
relative humidity will be the main threats, but lower winds will
limit greater concerns.

Very hot temperatures are expected from Friday through the weekend
when temperatures will likely be about 10 to 15 degrees above
normal, exceeding 105 degrees in many locations. A Heat Advisory
will likely be issued for many locations both days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested by 400 pm CDT.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
510 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSW PECOS             31.38N 103.51W
06/15/2017  M64 MPH          Reeves             TX   AWOS

&&

ANDREW.ARNOLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
718 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     HAIL             10 E MIDWAY             32.68N 101.62W
06/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       Borden             TX   PUBLIC

            ALONG 1054 ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF HWY 180.

&&

ANDREW.ARNOLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
737 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     HAIL             1 SW LUTHER             32.44N 101.47W
06/15/2017  E1.25 INCH       Howard             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ANDREW.ARNOLD