Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
312 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday
Main forecast concern are conditions during the first 12 hours of
the period.

Lastest surface analysis indicates low pressure centered to the east of Wichita.
A dryline extends southward to near Durant Oklahoma. A warm front
extends from the low center, southeast to just north of
Batesville.

Expected western portions of the warm front
to be first to focus convective development, with development
along the dry line nextas it accerlerates eastward. 19z KLZK
sounding reveals moderate instabilty: MUCAPE ~1600 j/kg, as well
as deep layer shear suffiecient for organized convective cells.

The overall severe thunderstorm threat will move from west to
east...between 23 and 09z.

Some precipitation will affect mainly northern areas during the
day on Thursday, in association with the slow moving upper low now
over Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday

The long term period will begin with upper low pressure systems in
the northeast and over the Rocky Mountains...with an upper ridge
over the central and southern Plains. The upper ridge moves east to
the eastern third of the country on Saturday...while the western low
does not move much. However, by Sunday the upper low deepens and
moves into Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas...then passes through
Arkansas Monday. The low moves into the Great Lakes Tuesday and
southwest flow returns to Arkansas. Another upper low in the Rockies
Tuesday will move through the Plains Wednesday.

Friday night and Saturday will be dry across Arkansas but more rain
chances return Saturday night through Monday night. Several short
waves will move across the state ahead of the approaching upper low
and bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Good rain
chances are expected Monday as a pair of low pressure systems phase
together over Arkansas. Will have to keep an eye on the system
Monday, for as it looks now, if severe thunderstorms develop, they
would be in south Arkansas.  Will continue a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday night and Wednesday in the
north as a weak short wave moves toward the area. Rain chances
increase for Wednesday night near a cold front. Above normal
temperatures will continue through the period.

 &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     60  66  50  70 /  80  60  20   0
Camden AR         58  70  50  80 /  70  40   0   0
Harrison AR       53  57  46  66 /  70  50  30   0
Hot Springs AR    56  64  49  76 /  70  40  10   0
Little Rock   AR  60  67  50  75 /  80  50  10   0
Monticello AR     63  72  52  79 /  80  60  10   0
Mount Ida AR      54  63  47  77 /  60  30   0   0
Mountain Home AR  56  62  47  67 /  80  60  30   0
Newport AR        62  67  50  68 /  80  60  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     62  70  51  77 /  80  50  10   0
Russellville AR   57  62  47  73 /  70  40  10   0
Searcy AR         59  66  48  71 /  80  60  10   0
Stuttgart AR      62  70  51  74 /  80  60  10   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...55 / Long Term...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
125 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
125 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Additional thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across
western and portions of central Arkansas. This activity will start
off scattered...but will see these thunderstorms become more
organized into a line or complex by late this afternoon and into
the early evening hours. This line will move east across western
into central sections of the state during the evening and into
the overnight hours. Expect this line of thunderstorms to be east
of the state by around sunrise Thursday morning.

The primary severe weather threats will be large damaging hail
greater than 1 inch in diameter and damaging winds in excess of 60
mph. Tornadoes will also be possible...especially across northern
sections of the state this afternoon and evening with the
discrete thunderstorm activity. A tornado threat will also exist
across a larger portion of the area as the line of thunderstorms
moves east late this evening and overnight. There will also be an
isolated flash flood threat...especially where any thunderstorms
train over the same areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Thursday...as the cold front moves across Arkansas. Isolated
severe storms are possible, primarily ahead of the front. Damaging
wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threat with any
severe storms.

There will be a possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms early
next week...around late Sunday into Monday night. Also...stronger
storms could produce locally heavy rainfall. This is still
several days out...and the forecast could change quite a bit
between now and then. Stay informed by monitoring the latest
forecasts and statements from your NWS office.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is likely...especially this afternoon and
tonight over much of the state.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

62/57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
624 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             HAVANA                  35.11N  93.53W
03/29/2017  E1.00 INCH       YELL               AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL RRPORTED IN HAVANA AND POINTS NORTH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700087

61

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
633 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

ARZ052-053-300015-
Pike AR-Clark AR-
633 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CLARK AND CENTRAL
PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 632 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Murfreesboro, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro...                   Glenwood...
Amity...                          Narrows Dam...
Crater Of Diamonds State Park...  Bear Creek Public Use Area...
Salem in Pike County...           Kirby...
Highland in Pike County...        Rosboro...
Roy...                            Pike City...

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southwestern
Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3434 9361 3428 9336 3398 9364 3398 9368
      3402 9380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 210DEG 35KT 3407 9368

46

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
658 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

ARZ041-042-052-300045-
Pike AR-Garland AR-Montgomery AR-
658 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PIKE...NORTHWESTERN
GARLAND...WESTERN HOT SPRING AND EASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL
745 PM CDT...

At 657 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Glenwood, or 15 miles south of Mount Ida, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Glenwood...                       Meyers...
Lake Ouachita State Park...       Avant...
Salem in Pike County...           Crystal Springs Landing...
Mt Tabor...                       Fannie...
Welsh...                          Lena Landing Rec Area...
Silver...                         Hamilton...
Crystal Springs...                Caddo Gap...
Hurricane Grove...

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for central,
western and southwestern Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3473 9346 3472 9309 3434 9346 3434 9348
      3433 9348 3425 9355 3429 9368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 214DEG 49KT 3435 9353

46

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
716 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

ARZ003-004-300100-
Marion AR-Boone AR-
716 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION AND
NORTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 715 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bergman, or 10 miles northeast of Harrison, moving northeast at 45
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Diamond City...                   Bergman...
Lead Hill...                      Willis...
Winington...                      Zinc...
South Lead Hill...                Monarch...

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for north
central Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 9273 3622 9297 3627 9308 3650 9297
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 209DEG 28KT 3633 9296

46

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