Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
809 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.AVIATION...30/00Z TAF CYCLE

Scattered convection wl cont to affect the FA tngt, with overall
coverage diminishing fm the W late tngt into Thu morning. VFR
conds wl prevail overall, with lower conds (MVFR/IFR) where
stronger storms affect a given fcst site. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 312 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday
Main forecast concern are conditions during the first 12 hours of
the period.

Latest surface analysis indicates low pressure centered to the
east of Wichita. A dryline extends southward to near Durant
Oklahoma. A warm front extends from the low center, southeast to
just north of Batesville.

Expected western portions of the warm front
to be first to focus convective development, with development
along the dry line nextas it accerlerates eastward. 19z KLZK
sounding reveals moderate instabilty: MUCAPE ~1600 j/kg, as well
as deep layer shear suffiecient for organized convective cells.

The overall severe thunderstorm threat will move from west to
east...between 23 and 09z.

Some precipitation will affect mainly northern areas during the
day on Thursday, in association with the slow moving upper low now
over Kansas.

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday

The long term period will begin with upper low pressure systems in
the northeast and over the Rocky Mountains...with an upper ridge
over the central and southern Plains. The upper ridge moves east to
the eastern third of the country on Saturday...while the western low
does not move much. However, by Sunday the upper low deepens and
moves into Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas...then passes through
Arkansas Monday. The low moves into the Great Lakes Tuesday and
southwest flow returns to Arkansas. Another upper low in the Rockies
Tuesday will move through the Plains Wednesday.

Friday night and Saturday will be dry across Arkansas but more rain
chances return Saturday night through Monday night. Several short
waves will move across the state ahead of the approaching upper low
and bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Good rain
chances are expected Monday as a pair of low pressure systems phase
together over Arkansas. Will have to keep an eye on the system
Monday, for as it looks now, if severe thunderstorms develop, they
would be in south Arkansas.  Will continue a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday night and Wednesday in the
north as a weak short wave moves toward the area. Rain chances
increase for Wednesday night near a cold front. Above normal
temperatures will continue through the period.

 &&

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
125 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
125 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Additional thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across
western and portions of central Arkansas. This activity will start
off scattered...but will see these thunderstorms become more
organized into a line or complex by late this afternoon and into
the early evening hours. This line will move east across western
into central sections of the state during the evening and into
the overnight hours. Expect this line of thunderstorms to be east
of the state by around sunrise Thursday morning.

The primary severe weather threats will be large damaging hail
greater than 1 inch in diameter and damaging winds in excess of 60
mph. Tornadoes will also be possible...especially across northern
sections of the state this afternoon and evening with the
discrete thunderstorm activity. A tornado threat will also exist
across a larger portion of the area as the line of thunderstorms
moves east late this evening and overnight. There will also be an
isolated flash flood threat...especially where any thunderstorms
train over the same areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Thursday...as the cold front moves across Arkansas. Isolated
severe storms are possible, primarily ahead of the front. Damaging
wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threat with any
severe storms.

There will be a possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms early
next week...around late Sunday into Monday night. Also...stronger
storms could produce locally heavy rainfall. This is still
several days out...and the forecast could change quite a bit
between now and then. Stay informed by monitoring the latest
forecasts and statements from your NWS office.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is likely...especially this afternoon and
tonight over much of the state.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

62/57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
918 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 NW WOOSTER            35.22N  92.47W
03/29/2017                   FAULKNER           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700090

61

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1002 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

ARZ041-042-300345-
Garland AR-Montgomery AR-
1002 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GARLAND AND EASTERN
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

At 1002 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
5 miles southeast of Mount Ida, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Ida...                      Jessieville...
Lake Ouachita State Park...       Avant...
Lena Landing Rec Area...          Silver...
Hamilton...                       Crystal Springs Landing...
Mt Tabor...                       Fannie...
Crystal Springs...                Hurricane Grove...

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for central and
western Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3436 9356 3454 9370 3477 9334 3476 9297
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 232DEG 40KT 3451 9356

46

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1010 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

ARZ007-014>016-024-300400-
Stone AR-Independence AR-Sharp AR-Izard AR-Cleburne AR-
1010 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN STONE...NORTHWESTERN
INDEPENDENCE...EASTERN IZARD...NORTH CENTRAL CLEBURNE AND
SOUTHWESTERN SHARP COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1009 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Concord, or 12 miles north of Heber Springs, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Melbourne...                      Horseshoe Bend...
Cave City...                      Cushman...
Mount Pleasant...                 Concord...
Franklin...                       Sidney...
Croker...                         Gid...
Stella...                         Lunenburg...
Myron...                          Lacrosse...
Evening Shade...                  Bethesda...
Guion...                          Ben...
Zion...                           Sandtown...

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for north
central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3557 9198 3568 9216 3624 9177 3605 9145
TIME...MOT...LOC 0309Z 217DEG 42KT 3567 9203

Cross

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1012 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     HAIL             DAMASCUS                35.37N  92.41W
03/29/2017  E1.00 INCH       VAN BUREN          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700091

61

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