Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1034 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Have updated to increase rain chances over the area in the
northwest and far west tonight. 00Z upper level analysis shows a
degree of ridging still in place over Arkansas, but starting to
erode. Trough emenating from a closed upper low in the four
corners region and interacting with a strong surface system over
Oklahoma has allowed strong storms to develop and move
east/northeast. Based on their current trajectory and incoming
model data, these will likely clip our northwest half later
tonight. There will still be a severe threat, but this should wane
in the early morning hours as the storms weaken.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 640 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017)

AVIATION...
Clouds will increase over the next 24 hours, as a storm system
approaches from the plains. Expect conditions to deteriorate by
early Friday morning, with MVFR ceilings developing. Some
improvement can be expected during the late morning and early
afternoon hours, similar to today. Precipitation chances are low-
confidence, except for maybe in the north.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1245 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-191000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
1245 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The region will be between a ridge of high pressure over the
southeast United States and a front and stormy conditions in the
Plains.

Overnight, storms from Oklahoma will build into northwest Arkansas.
Some storms will be severe, with damaging winds the main concern. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Locally heavy rain will also
be noted, with amounts locally over an inch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Not much will change on Friday. Hit and miss showers and a few
thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly in areas north and west of
Little Rock.

High pressure to the east will weaken Friday night and Saturday. The
front to the west will head toward Arkansas, with rain chances
increasing. Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend.

A few storms could become strong to severe. The stronger storms
could produce large hail and damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall
will also occur. Thunderstorms will move out of the area Sunday
afternoon.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed Friday night and Saturday.
&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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