Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.AVIATION...
Active weather expected through the period, with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. First wave will be scattered,
primarily in the central and north/northeast this evening, then
more late tonight, and more during the day Saturday. Prevailing
conditions will become MVFR, locally restricted with any heavier
precipitation. Winds will primarily be out of the south, except
variable and gusty near thunderstorms.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 236 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Coverage of SHRA has been a bit more scattered this afternoon
compared to the isolated coverage seen on Thu afternoon.
Additional...more organized SHRA and some TSRA were ongoing across
NE OK. This activity will continue to lift NE into far NW AR and SW
MO this afternoon...with a few of the NWRN counties seeing some
potential of this activity remaining organized as it moves over that
portion of the state. Elsewhere...expected the isolated to scattered
SHRA and a few TSRA through the rest of the afternoon and early
evening hrs.

This evening and overnight...additional convection will become more
likely as activity develops to the west and SW in OK...and moves
ENE into AR. This will be similar to what happened this
morning...just a bit further south. Given the similar setup...do
expect some potential for SVR Wx...with damaging winds the primary
hazard...especially as the convection develops into a potential
bowing complex. Some hail may also be seen...but lesser potential
than the wind. There could also be a some brief tornado potential
along the leading edge of this bowing line of convection.

By sunrise Sat...do expect this overnight convection to be weakening
as it pushes east of the CWA. Will see some lingering SHRA/TSRA in
the morning across central/SRN sections of the CWA...but then should
see a break in the organized convection by around midday. Could
still see some scattered SHRA/TSRA during the midday time frame. By
the afternoon and early evening hrs...a cold front will move into
the state from the NW...with additional SHRA/TSRA expected to develop
along/ahead of the front. This front will then push SE through the
rest of the CWA by sunrise Sun...with cooler and more stable
conditions expected for the rest of Sun.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday

We will enter a brief period of drier weather heading into the
start of the new work week. The aforementioned storm system wl be
working EWD away fm the AR Sun night, with SFC high pressure
working into the region. One thing to watch for Mon into Mon night
is the potential for any MCS to the NW of the FA, possibly
affecting parts of AR. Have kept the fcst dry for now, but wl
continue to watch model trends.

Another upr trof/CDFNT wl push thru the area Tue and Tue night, with
scattered convection expected. Some residual moisture working arnd
the upr trof could produce some lingering rain chances over parts of
NERN AR on Wed. Drier conds wl return to close out the work week.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...57

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
234 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
234 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon across
much of the area...with the threat for seeing severe weather
expected to remain isolated. However...a line of thunderstorms
over northeast Oklahoma currently this afternoon will continue to
move northeast through the rest of the afternoon and early evening
hours. This activity could generate some damaging winds across the
far northwest sections of the area through early this evening.
Some large hail and a brief tornado may also be seen with this
activity.

Another line or complex of thunderstorms will develop over parts
of southern Oklahoma early this evening...and move east/northeast
into western Arkansas late this evening and just after midnight.
This line of storms may form into bowing complex as it begins to
move rapidly east/northeast across the state late this evening and
into the early morning hours. Expect damaging winds as the primary
hazard with this complex of storms...with some isolated large hail
also possible. There could also be some brief tornadoes along the
leading edge of this complex of thunderstorms. Locally heavy
rainfall may also be seen...with isolated flash flooding
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday Through Thursday

Additional thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday...with
mainly scattered activity through early Saturday afternoon. A
cold front will move southeast through the state Saturday
afternoon through Sunday morning. Additional organized
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of this cold front
as it moves southeast through the state. Drier and cooler
conditions will be seen by Sunday afternoon...with dry conditions
persisting through Monday.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed through tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

62/44

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