Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
345 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Discussion...
As of 3:30 PM, thunderstorms have begun to develop over Floyd
county along a sharp dryline that has set up north to south along
the escarpment between the South Plains and Rolling Plains. Storm
coverage and intensity will increase through the evening hours
across the northern half of the Rolling Plains. There is a tornado
watch across the area of concern through 10pm tonight. Along with
the tornado threat, locations within the watch can expect giant
hail in excess of 3 inches in diameter and strong wind gusts
exceeding 70mph.

Later on this evening as the dryline begins to retreat west, it
will converge and combine with an advancing cold front as the
powerful and compact upper level low ejects out of eastern New
Mexico across the Texas Panhandle overnight and into the Central
Plains by Wednesday morning. The second wave of convection will
be more widespread and persist through the overnight hours and
should be east of our CWA by sunrise. The primary threat with the
squall line later tonight will be severe wind gusts and large
hail.

Wednesday will provide a break between this evenings upper level
low and another that arrives on our doorstep late Thursday.
The southern Rolling Plains could see some thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon as along the western extent of the Gulf moisture return
receives some lift from an enhanced southern jet, while the rest
of our CWA should remain dry.

A Pacific cold front will push south and east across our CWA
Friday morning with scattered non-severe thunderstorms and
showers. This mornings guidance has pushed POPs on Friday farther
east than previous forecasts as moisture return continues its
anemic trend. We'll dry out for the weekend as the upper level
trough begins to flatten and lift north on Saturday. Temps behind
the Pacific Cold front on Friday, and especially Saturday, will
be below normal before rebounding on Sunday to near 80 and to
seasonal norms by Monday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021-022-027-028-
033-034.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1113 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017

TXZ021>044-171615-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1113 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
A sharp dryline moving east across the Caprock this morning
will stall in the western Rolling Plains by early afternoon,
coinciding with the arrival of a mid-level impulse. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will develop as early as mid-afternoon,
particularly in the far southeast Panhandle and northern Rolling
Plains. The environment will favor discrete supercells, the
strongest of which could produce giant hail exceeding three inches
in diameter, a few tornadoes, and destructive downburst winds. By
late evening, a severe squall line is likely to develop in the
southern Rolling Plains and spread eastward through the night.
Farther west, a wind advisory is in effect from 3 PM until 9 PM
for much of the western South Plains as sustained southwest winds
increase to 25 to 35 mph later today. High based thunderstorms
west of the dryline this evening could also produce dry
microbursts with wind gusts to 65 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday
There is potential for additional severe thunderstorms on Thursday
and Friday pending the evolution of a dryline and cold front
tonight. This threat appears to favor areas east of the Caprock
Escarpment.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening,
mainly off the Caprock.