Severe Thunderstorm Warning 235, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
331 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.Short Term (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

...Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Tonight Into Monday...

A series of convective complexes moving out of the Missouri and Mid-
Mississippi Valleys has managed to limit our instability and keep it
disconnected from the stronger shear today, thus holding storm
intensity and organization in check. SPC Day 1 Outlook still has
most of Kentucky in a Slight Risk, but confidence continues to
diminish.

Currently the main focus for convection is the differential heating
boundary associated with the leading edge of the cloud shield from
an earlier MCS. This feature will continue to support storm
initiation as it pushes east into the Bluegrass late this afternoon,
and even though we remain weakly sheared, moderate to strong
instability and precipitable water over 2 inches will support wet
microbursts with locally damaging winds and torrential rainfall.

Surface cold front still making its way across central Illinois and
Indiana, and will support continued storm chances into this evening.
Still confident that most of the area will get at least some rain,
but the window for severe convection is starting to close.

Bigger deal tonight will be potential for heavy rainfall. First off,
any storms this afternoon and this evening could produce intense
rainfall rates. As the night progresses and the front continues to
make its way south, upper impulses will hang the front up over
south-central Kentucky. Where this happens storms could train enough
to produce widespread 1-2 inch rain totals, with locally higher
amounts likely. Therefore, have coordinated with JKL and OHX to
issue a Flash Flood Watch for portions of south-centrl Kentucky east
of I-65.

Heavy rain potential will continue along the KY/TN border through at
least midday on Monday, and FFA will remain in place until 20Z
Monday just to sync up with neighboring offices. Otherwise expect a
general tapering of POPs from NW to SE late tonight and most of
Monday.

A drier air mass will spill in behind the front, bringing more
seasonable temperatures and more comfortable dewpoints for Monday
and Monday night. Some signals for fog potential late Monday night
into Tue morning, as winds will decouple and we could still be
dealing with wet ground in quite a few places.

.Long Term (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Broad upper trof over the Great Lakes will bring a period of fairly
quiet weather across the Ohio Valley, with temps running slightly
below climo. Perhaps even more noticeable will be the respite from
the Southern summer humidity as dewpoints will stay in the upper 50s
to around 60 through Wednesday, allowing for a couple of cooler
nights/mornings. Have introduced a slight chance POP across
southeast Indiana into the northern Bluegrass Tue afternoon as an
upper-level shortwave swings through the Great Lakes to drive a weak
reinforcing surface boundary through the Ohio Valley. Probabilities
remain quite low as the moisture and forcing never quite come
together.

Warmer and more humid air starts to feed in Wednesday night as the
surface ridging retreats eastward and the upper pattern flattens
out. Late week will be more typical summer heat and humidity, but
the biggest question mark is what influence the tropics will have.
Model solutions try to lift a tropical low from the Gulf, or at
least its moisture plume, into the Deep South on Thursday and
through the Tennessee Valley on Friday. Plenty of uncertainty as to
whether this system will even develop, so will keep POPs on Friday
and Saturday capped in the chance range. If this system does
develop, significant rainfall would be likely somewhere, but still
dependent on how far north it moves before getting caught in the
westerlies. Stay tuned.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Low-confidence forecast given uncertainty of both impacts and timing
of likely afternoon/evening convection. Decent cluster of storms
developing over BWG provides a bit more confidence there, as we
expect intermittent MVFR ceilings and visibilties in thunderstorms
for the first couple hrs of the TAF.  SDF and LEX are a bit more
tricky, as an area of more steady rain west of SDF will try to
stabilize the boundary layer across that area. However, could see
enough differential heating to focus at least some thunderstorm
development, so will include a TEMPO for late afternoon/early
evening storms in both sites. Will keep the ceilings above fuel-
alternate, though the potential for storms will likely dictate
additional reserve fuel anyway. Visibility forecast is MVFR even in
the TEMPO groups, but brief pockets of IFR are likely to accompany
the heaviest rain for just a few min at a time.

Main thunder threat will end this evening, but SHRA will linger
until at least midnight in both BWG and LEX. Can't rule out thunder
as a wave is likely to ride ENE along the surface front, but
probability is too low to include it at this time. Will keep
conditions above fuel-alternate at BWG, but a few hrs of fuel-
alternate MVFR ceilings are likely at LEX behind the front.

SDF will be quicker than the others to taper down the precip, and
should remain VFR through the night and into Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for KYZ064>067-
     073>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........RAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
342 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>063-
070>072-191945-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Logan-Warren-Simpson-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin,
and Providence
342 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 /242 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible through this
evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing torrential
rainfall and locally gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report flooding or wind damage to the
National Weather Service in Louisville tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

KYZ064>067-073>078-081-082-191945-
Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia,
Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany
342 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 /242 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Numerous thunderstorms are expected tonight. The main threat will be
torrential rainfall, which could result in localized flooding. The
stronger storms will also be capable of producing locally gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will continue into
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report flooding or wind damage to the
National Weather Service in Louisville tonight and Monday.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

RAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
509 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

KYZ035>037-040-042-182145-
Bourbon-Scott-Woodford-Franklin-Harrison-
509 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WOODFORD...SCOTT...WEST
CENTRAL BOURBON...SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON AND CENTRAL FRANKLIN
COUNTIES...

At 508 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Frankfort,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, Frankfort, Midway, Stamping Ground, Sadieville, Longlick,
Slickway, Alberta, Stonewall and Moon Lake Estates.

LAT...LON 3827 8433 3809 8486 3811 8487 3812 8487
      3825 8497 3834 8480 3834 8479 3835 8475
      3837 8471 3845 8460 3851 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 240DEG 33KT 3821 8483

AMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
524 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

KYZ041-048-049-056-057-067-182200-
Fayette-Jessamine-Clark-Lincoln-Madison-Garrard-
524 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL LINCOLN...
EASTERN GARRARD...SOUTHERN CLARK...SOUTHEASTERN JESSAMINE...MADISON
AND SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 524 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Veterans Park to 7
miles southwest of Richmond to Gum Sulphur. Movement was east at 30
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Harris Ferry, Mccreary, Berea, Crab Orchard, Goffs Corner,
Peytontown, Valley View, Jackson Ferry and Panola.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3786 8401 3787 8403 3784 8400 3785 8406
      3782 8407 3785 8408 3782 8412 3781 8408
      3778 8411 3767 8409 3765 8413 3757 8409
      3752 8426 3754 8435 3747 8437 3748 8445
      3740 8448 3741 8452 3791 8451 3796 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 278DEG 25KT 3789 8441 3770 8442 3744 8445

AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
526 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S BLOOMFIELD          37.90N 85.31W
06/18/2017                   NELSON             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY 62 SOUTH OF BLOOMFIELD BRIEFLY
            IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
527 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSW NEW ZION          38.12N 84.52W
06/18/2017                   FAYETTE            KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON GEORGETOWN RD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
528 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VERSAILLES              38.05N 84.73W
06/18/2017                   WOODFORD           KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
531 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRANKFORT               38.19N 84.87W
06/18/2017                   FRANKLIN           KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES AND POWER POLES SNAPPED.

&&