Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Louisville, KY

005 
WWUS53 KLMK 182047
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
447 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

KYC005-179-215-229-182057-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0231.000000T0000Z-170618T2045Z/
Spencer KY-Nelson KY-Anderson KY-Washington KY-
447 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SPENCER...
NORTHEASTERN NELSON...SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been allowed to expire.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

LAT...LON 3805 8513 3778 8502 3772 8540 3773 8540
      3772 8541 3770 8554 3791 8549 3807 8517
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 242DEG 24KT 3792 8510 

$$

AMS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
331 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.Short Term (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

...Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Tonight Into Monday...

A series of convective complexes moving out of the Missouri and Mid-
Mississippi Valleys has managed to limit our instability and keep it
disconnected from the stronger shear today, thus holding storm
intensity and organization in check. SPC Day 1 Outlook still has
most of Kentucky in a Slight Risk, but confidence continues to
diminish.

Currently the main focus for convection is the differential heating
boundary associated with the leading edge of the cloud shield from
an earlier MCS. This feature will continue to support storm
initiation as it pushes east into the Bluegrass late this afternoon,
and even though we remain weakly sheared, moderate to strong
instability and precipitable water over 2 inches will support wet
microbursts with locally damaging winds and torrential rainfall.

Surface cold front still making its way across central Illinois and
Indiana, and will support continued storm chances into this evening.
Still confident that most of the area will get at least some rain,
but the window for severe convection is starting to close.

Bigger deal tonight will be potential for heavy rainfall. First off,
any storms this afternoon and this evening could produce intense
rainfall rates. As the night progresses and the front continues to
make its way south, upper impulses will hang the front up over
south-central Kentucky. Where this happens storms could train enough
to produce widespread 1-2 inch rain totals, with locally higher
amounts likely. Therefore, have coordinated with JKL and OHX to
issue a Flash Flood Watch for portions of south-centrl Kentucky east
of I-65.

Heavy rain potential will continue along the KY/TN border through at
least midday on Monday, and FFA will remain in place until 20Z
Monday just to sync up with neighboring offices. Otherwise expect a
general tapering of POPs from NW to SE late tonight and most of
Monday.

A drier air mass will spill in behind the front, bringing more
seasonable temperatures and more comfortable dewpoints for Monday
and Monday night. Some signals for fog potential late Monday night
into Tue morning, as winds will decouple and we could still be
dealing with wet ground in quite a few places.

.Long Term (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Broad upper trof over the Great Lakes will bring a period of fairly
quiet weather across the Ohio Valley, with temps running slightly
below climo. Perhaps even more noticeable will be the respite from
the Southern summer humidity as dewpoints will stay in the upper 50s
to around 60 through Wednesday, allowing for a couple of cooler
nights/mornings. Have introduced a slight chance POP across
southeast Indiana into the northern Bluegrass Tue afternoon as an
upper-level shortwave swings through the Great Lakes to drive a weak
reinforcing surface boundary through the Ohio Valley. Probabilities
remain quite low as the moisture and forcing never quite come
together.

Warmer and more humid air starts to feed in Wednesday night as the
surface ridging retreats eastward and the upper pattern flattens
out. Late week will be more typical summer heat and humidity, but
the biggest question mark is what influence the tropics will have.
Model solutions try to lift a tropical low from the Gulf, or at
least its moisture plume, into the Deep South on Thursday and
through the Tennessee Valley on Friday. Plenty of uncertainty as to
whether this system will even develop, so will keep POPs on Friday
and Saturday capped in the chance range. If this system does
develop, significant rainfall would be likely somewhere, but still
dependent on how far north it moves before getting caught in the
westerlies. Stay tuned.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Low-confidence forecast given uncertainty of both impacts and timing
of likely afternoon/evening convection. Decent cluster of storms
developing over BWG provides a bit more confidence there, as we
expect intermittent MVFR ceilings and visibilties in thunderstorms
for the first couple hrs of the TAF.  SDF and LEX are a bit more
tricky, as an area of more steady rain west of SDF will try to
stabilize the boundary layer across that area. However, could see
enough differential heating to focus at least some thunderstorm
development, so will include a TEMPO for late afternoon/early
evening storms in both sites. Will keep the ceilings above fuel-
alternate, though the potential for storms will likely dictate
additional reserve fuel anyway. Visibility forecast is MVFR even in
the TEMPO groups, but brief pockets of IFR are likely to accompany
the heaviest rain for just a few min at a time.

Main thunder threat will end this evening, but SHRA will linger
until at least midnight in both BWG and LEX. Can't rule out thunder
as a wave is likely to ride ENE along the surface front, but
probability is too low to include it at this time. Will keep
conditions above fuel-alternate at BWG, but a few hrs of fuel-
alternate MVFR ceilings are likely at LEX behind the front.

SDF will be quicker than the others to taper down the precip, and
should remain VFR through the night and into Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for KYZ064>067-
     073>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........RAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
342 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>063-
070>072-191945-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Logan-Warren-Simpson-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin,
and Providence
342 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 /242 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible through this
evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing torrential
rainfall and locally gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report flooding or wind damage to the
National Weather Service in Louisville tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

KYZ064>067-073>078-081-082-191945-
Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia,
Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany
342 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 /242 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Numerous thunderstorms are expected tonight. The main threat will be
torrential rainfall, which could result in localized flooding. The
stronger storms will also be capable of producing locally gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will continue into
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report flooding or wind damage to the
National Weather Service in Louisville tonight and Monday.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

RAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
241 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

KYZ033-181900-
Henry-
241 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY...

At 241 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest of
Owenton, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gratz, Slabtown, Fallis, Lockport, Orville and Gest.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3847 8495 3846 8495 3844 8496 3843 8495
      3843 8494 3846 8493 3846 8492 3845 8491
      3844 8493 3842 8488 3839 8490 3837 8501
      3845 8502 3848 8497
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 240DEG 49KT 3845 8491

AMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
213 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

KYZ076>078-081-181945-
Russell-Metcalf-Cumberland-Adair-
213 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN RUSSELL...NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND...SOUTHEASTERN METCALFE AND SOUTH CENTRAL ADAIR
COUNTIES...

At 213 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of
Burkesville, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burkesville, Leslie, Bryan, Waterview, Cofer, Cundiff, Curtis,
Breeding, Creelsboro and Grider.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3677 8554 3677 8556 3692 8563 3704 8523
      3689 8515 3687 8519 3689 8523 3688 8524
      3686 8521 3674 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 244DEG 39KT 3688 8545

ZT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
320 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

KYZ037-181945-
Harrison-
320 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HARRISON COUNTY...

At 320 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 11 miles south of
Falmouth, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Berry, Robinson, Colemansville, Kelat, Renaker, Boyd, Claysville,
Sunrise, Antioch and Hinton.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3845 8453 3850 8453 3851 8449 3854 8448
      3853 8446 3854 8443 3857 8441 3858 8420
      3857 8420 3856 8422 3855 8421 3855 8416
      3854 8416 3853 8418 3850 8418 3850 8416
      3849 8417 3848 8415 3847 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 246DEG 33KT 3852 8441

AMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
341 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

KYZ028>030-034-038-045-046-053-054-182015-
Jefferson-Shelby-Bullitt-Marion-Spencer-Washington-Nelson-Hardin-
Larue-
341 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SPENCER...SOUTHWESTERN
SHELBY...NELSON...CENTRAL LARUE...NORTHWESTERN MARION...SOUTHEASTERN
JEFFERSON...WESTERN WASHINGTON...EAST CENTRAL HARDIN AND BULLITT
COUNTIES...

At 341 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Shepherdsville to Hodgenville.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Shelbyville, Bardstown, Shepherdsville, Lebanon, Hodgenville,
Springfield, Pioneer Village, Taylorsville, Hollyvilla and Minor Lane
Heights.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3823 8519 3760 8515 3754 8578 3807 8582
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 247DEG 26KT 3803 8575 3758 8571

AMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
350 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

KYZ035>037-040-042-182030-
Bourbon-Scott-Woodford-Franklin-Harrison-
350 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WOODFORD...SCOTT...
NORTHWESTERN BOURBON...WESTERN HARRISON AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 350 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Frankfort,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, Frankfort, Paris, Cynthiana, Midway, Stamping Ground,
Sadieville, Longlick, Slickway and Alberta.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3823 8421 3820 8437 3821 8438 3821 8440
      3817 8451 3810 8487 3812 8487 3810 8489
      3809 8491 3811 8495 3824 8500 3835 8483
      3834 8479 3837 8471 3849 8456 3851 8449
      3854 8447
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 239DEG 21KT 3817 8482

AMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
251 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

KYZ078-081-082-182015-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
251 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CLINTON...SOUTH CENTRAL RUSSELL
AND SOUTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

At 251 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Albany, moving
east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albany, Littrell, Cartwright, Snow, Savage, Ida, Modoc, Huntersville,
Seventy Six and Decide.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3673 8542 3692 8496 3686 8506 3683 8506
      3681 8503 3677 8501 3670 8502 3668 8500
      3664 8500 3662 8507 3663 8527 3662 8538
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 248DEG 26KT 3673 8511

ZT