Flash Flood Watch 8, NWS Louisville, KY

Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Woodford County, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1259 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

The expected midday lull in convection is upon us at this time. Out
of several overnight complexes, just one small segment is trying to
maintain intensity as it tracks across western Kentucky. These
storms are taking just enough of a southward trajectory that they
should push into Tennessee, but we could still see weakening
convection get into south-central Kentucky early this afternoon.

With the surface front still back across central Illinois, and
plenty of low-level moisture pooling just ahead of it, we still
expect fairly extensive coverage of showers and storms this
afternoon. However, the debris clouds left behind will limit
destabilization, so the intensity may not be what was previously
advertised.

Still, with decent mid-level winds and plenty of potential boundary
interactions, there remains some threat for isolated wet microbursts
and torrential rainfall, so our messaging about a wind and heavy
rain threat will continue. No significant forecast changes are
planned at this time.

Issued at 705 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #350 was cancelled in coordination with
SPC and surrounding offices. The broken line of storms that moved
into the area seems to be only producing 40 mph winds or less, so
will handle with SPS's as needed. Have let the Watch go and have
updated all of the public products.

Main question for the rest of the day will be whether we can
destabilize once again for afternoon and evening storm potential.

.Short Term (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

...Severe Storms & Locally Heavy Rain Possible This Afternoon and
Evening...

Currently, a convective complex stretches from the lower Great Lakes
down through NE Oklahoma. The complex has developed ahead of a
shortwave trough over the upper Midwest, but will gradually weaken
as it approaches our less unstable and less sheared airmass toward
dawn. Nevertheless, do expect to see scattered showers and a few
storms developing mainly across southern IN and northern KY on
remnant outflow and just ahead of what appears to be subtle mid
level speed max. Given marginally severe winds upstream and a
reasonably favorable environment in place across our NW, SPC has
coordinated a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. It is possible the
organized line will gust out prior to arriving, but may hold
together just long enough to bring an isolated damaging wind threat
before and around sunrise. Then, expect a relative lull in activity
through the rest of the morning and early afternoon.

As we move into the mid afternoon hours, expecting to see some
redevelopment of showers and storms along remnant
outflow/differential heating boundary just north of the Ohio River.
This boundary will effectively become the new cold front and will
slowly push SE through the late afternoon and evening as the mid
level trough axis approaches. Expect scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to push through ahead of the boundary this afternoon
and evening, aided by 1500-2500 J/KG of CAPE and marginal deep layer
shear. Any storm will pose a threat of intense rainfall rates and
lightning, along with an isolated threat of damaging winds and small
hail. At this point, thinking the very moist column may limit the
threat for larger hail, except for any storm out ahead of the main
PWAT axis. In fact, PWATs are expected to be around and just above 2
inches through the column over a narrow swath and any training of
storms could begin to produce localized hydro concerns. Overall, the
system looks just progressive enough to limit any widespread
concerns so will hold of on any Flash Flood Watch headlines at this
time, but will continue to monitor for the potential.

Think the best threat for a few bowing segments will be over
southern IN and northern KY where slightly better deep layer shear
~30 knots will be located. Further south, storm mode is expected to
be more multicell in nature with better potential for a wet
microburst as the damaging wind threat.

As we move into the overnight, another mid and upper speed max is
expected to round the base of the trough, and provide additional
forcing. Another round of showers and storms may develop across
central and southern KY where a heavy rain threat could persist. The
highest rainfall totals are expected to be across southern and
eastern KY where 1 to 2 inches of rain will be possible, with
locally higher amounts also possible in areas that see repeated t-
storm activity. Overall, total rainfall should be three quarters of
an inch or less along and north of the Ohio River through the event.

By Monday, the trough axis should slowly make its way into the Ohio
Valley, along with a mid level dry slot. Any showers and storms
lingering in the east should wane by afternoon and evening.

.Long Term (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

As we move into the extended period, the region will be under the
influence of a strong upper level trough axis moving through the
region.  The trough does not look to move through too fast, so we
will get a couple of days of lower humidity along with more
seasonable temperatures.  Lows Monday night will cool into the upper
50s to the lower 60s with highs on Tuesday warming into the upper
70s to lower 80s. Lows look to cool back into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s Tuesday night.  A weak frontal boundary will attempt to
move southward toward the region on Wednesday.  However, the zonal
flow aloft will likely keep it a bit further north than previous
forecasts indicated.  Thus, we will still trend the forecast dry for
Wednesday with highs warming back into the lower to middle 80s.

As we close out the work week, the heat and humidity will be on the
increase as deeper moisture to our south gets drawn up into the
lower Ohio Valley.  A couple of passing shortwave troughs will
likely pass through yielding some chances of precipitation.  The
forecast becomes more challenging as we head into next weekend as a
possible tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico could landfall
somewhere along the US Gulf coast.  Current global models continue
to exhibit a wide range of solutions with landfall scenarios with a
span of landfall solutions from the Texas gulf coast eastward
through the Florida Panhandle.

Utilizing the multi-model consensus and long range ensembles, it
appears that a track more to the west looks more likely at this
point with some sort of landfall probably west of the MS River
region along the NW Gulf coast if the system gets going or holds
together, given that the shear across the Gulf is pretty high
throughout the period. Should this occur, the system looks to get
pulled northward into the belt of westerlies near the Ohio Valley.
This could bring some heavier rainfall to the region late this next
weekend.  For now, have kept much of the blended forecast intact,
which keeps PoPs highest on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures
through the period will warm into the upper 80s to near 90 once
again for Thu/Fri, with lower-mid 80s expected by Sat/Sun.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Low-confidence forecast given uncertainty of both impacts and timing
of likely afternoon/evening convection. Decent cluster of storms
developing over BWG provides a bit more confidence there, as we
expect intermittent MVFR ceilings and visibilties in thunderstorms
for the first couple hrs of the TAF.  SDF and LEX are a bit more
tricky, as an area of more steady rain west of SDF will try to
stabilize the boundary layer across that area. However, could see
enough differential heating to focus at least some thunderstorm
development, so will include a TEMPO for late afternoon/early
evening storms in both sites. Will keep the ceilings above fuel-
alternate, though the potential for storms will likely dictate
additional reserve fuel anyway. Visibility forecast is MVFR even in
the TEMPO groups, but brief pockets of IFR are likely to accompany
the heaviest rain for just a few min at a time.

Main thunder threat will end this evening, but SHRA will linger
until at least midnight in both BWG and LEX. Can't rule out thunder
as a wave is likely to ride ENE along the surface front, but
probability is too low to include it at this time. Will keep
conditions above fuel-alternate at BWG, but a few hrs of fuel-
alternate MVFR ceilings are likely at LEX behind the front.

SDF will be quicker than the others to taper down the precip, and
should remain VFR through the night and into Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........BJS/RAS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Louisville KY
644 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-191045-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
644 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 /544 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be around this morning. The
main threats are brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds to 40 mph, and
cloud to ground lightning.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon as a
frontal boundary slowly moves through the area. Localized heavy
rainfall will be a concern along with cloud to ground lightning and
gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report observed strong winds or damage to
the National Weather Service in Louisville this morning and again
this afternoon and evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

BJS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
241 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

KYZ033-181900-
Henry-
241 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY...

At 241 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest of
Owenton, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gratz, Slabtown, Fallis, Lockport, Orville and Gest.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3847 8495 3846 8495 3844 8496 3843 8495
      3843 8494 3846 8493 3846 8492 3845 8491
      3844 8493 3842 8488 3839 8490 3837 8501
      3845 8502 3848 8497
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 240DEG 49KT 3845 8491

AMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
213 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

KYZ076>078-081-181945-
Russell-Metcalf-Cumberland-Adair-
213 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN RUSSELL...NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND...SOUTHEASTERN METCALFE AND SOUTH CENTRAL ADAIR
COUNTIES...

At 213 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of
Burkesville, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burkesville, Leslie, Bryan, Waterview, Cofer, Cundiff, Curtis,
Breeding, Creelsboro and Grider.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3677 8554 3677 8556 3692 8563 3704 8523
      3689 8515 3687 8519 3689 8523 3688 8524
      3686 8521 3674 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 244DEG 39KT 3688 8545

ZT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
320 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

KYZ037-181945-
Harrison-
320 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HARRISON COUNTY...

At 320 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 11 miles south of
Falmouth, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Berry, Robinson, Colemansville, Kelat, Renaker, Boyd, Claysville,
Sunrise, Antioch and Hinton.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3845 8453 3850 8453 3851 8449 3854 8448
      3853 8446 3854 8443 3857 8441 3858 8420
      3857 8420 3856 8422 3855 8421 3855 8416
      3854 8416 3853 8418 3850 8418 3850 8416
      3849 8417 3848 8415 3847 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 246DEG 33KT 3852 8441

AMS