Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
642 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...Heavy Breezy Rain Ongoing...

Surface low tracking across central TN and should move into southern
KY this afternoon. The tightest pressure gradient associated with
the low is out ahead of it, so expect some gusty conditions the next
several hours. Current forecast keeps wind gusts just below Wind
Advisory criteria, but would not be surprised to see a couple of
sites gust to around 40 mph. There will be a brief lull in the
vicinity of the low center before winds pick up again west of it and
south of it later this afternoon and evening.

But enough about the wind, the main story is the rain! Kentucky
Mesonet stations along our southern border are measuring 2-4"/hr
rain rates. Rainfall totals will be highest left of the surface low
track, and expect this axis to remain from Russellville to
Frankfort. Of some concern in the last few model runs is the slowing
down of that surface low over central Kentucky. This forecast would
prolong the flash flood threat into Saturday. Also, the NAM and
latest WRF's both indicate a stripe of higher QPF along the Ohio
River at Louisville, possibly farther north. That would indicate
some higher rainfall rates in southern IN than in the previous
forecast. There still will be a sharp cutoff in rainfall totals. For
now, have decided not to expand the Flash Flood Watch to include the
rest of our Southern IN counties.

By Saturday afternoon, the low should be filling in quickly, and
though rain still will be in the area, rates should come down enough
not to cause new flooding issues.

Temperatures this period will be chilly, with record cold maxes
possible both Saturday...see the climate section below.

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

After any lingering light rain dissipates Saturday evening, high
pressure moving into the TN Valley should allow us to dry out Sunday
and Monday. Our next rain chance comes in late Monday night and
Tuesday as a cold front sweeps through here. A secondary front still
may bring in additional showers Tue. night to Wednesday. This front
will bring temperatures down quite a bit for early September. Model
solutions still vary, lowering confidence in any one solution...but
there is confidence in a cool down.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

Widespread rain has nearly engulfed the entire area, with the
exception of the Lake Cumberland region where precipitation has
remained scattered in nature. Expect the rain to continue through
most of the TAF period, with the intensity of the rain beginning to
let up toward evening. Low stratus and rainfall will keep cigs/vis
generally MVFR/IFR, with localized LIFR at times. Winds will also
remain gusty out of the northeast, with gusts approaching or
exceeding 35kts at times.

&&

.Hydrology...
Updated at 245 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

Tropical Storm Harvey's remnants will bring heavy rain to the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. Areal average rainfall totals will peak just
to the left of the track of the surface center of Harvey. Have the
peak values running from Russellville northeast to Georgetown, KY.
For now, have highest values near Bowling Green, with 4-7" of
rainfall on average with higher amounts in some spots.  A Flash
Flood Watch remains in effect for most locations for today.

Significant river flooding is not expected at this time. Streams
under these training bands of rain could rise to capacity and
beyond. The greatest chance for minor flooding will be in the
Barren, Rough, and Green River basins.

&&

.Climate...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

Record rainfall for September 1:
Louisville: 2.95", 1965
Lexington: 1.91", 1905
Bowling Green: 2.00", 1938

Note: BWG did hit a record rainfall total for Aug. 31, with the late
evening rains just before Midnight. It also has broken for Sep. 1,
but that total is not complete yet.

Record Cold Maximum Temperature for September 1:
Bowling Green: 70 degrees, 1976

Note: The temperature at Midnight for SDF/LEX already was above the
cold max, so no records today.

Record Cold Maximum Temperature for September 2:
Louisville: 68 degrees, 2006
Lexington:  66 degrees, 2006
Bowling Green: 68 degrees, 2006

Of note with August's end...August will be the first month since May
2016 that the average temperature was more than a degree below
normal for the month at SDF/LEX. Each month since then either has
been within a degree of normal or above it. BWG's streak goes a
little further back, to January 2016.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ079-084-089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ023>043-045>049-
     053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS
Aviation...DM
Hydrology...RJS
Climate...RJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
305 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

INZ079-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082-020715-
Jefferson-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-
Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-
Franklin-Scott-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-
Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-
Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-
Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-
Clinton-
Including the cities of Madison, English, Tell City, Corydon,
New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg,
Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville,
Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville,
Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg,
Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield,
Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon,
Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
305 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017 /205 AM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The remnants of Tropical Depression Harvey will bring periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall today. Areas that receive multiple rounds
of heavy rainfall likely will see some street flooding as well as
rises on area creeks and rivers.

In addition to the heavy rain threat, isolated weak, short-lived
tornadoes are possible over eastern sections of central Kentucky,
especially the Lake Cumberland region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Some light to moderate rainfall will continue Saturday...and a few
area rivers may rise to minor flood stage because of the rainfall
from Harvey.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for heavy rain reports and flooding
as well as any stronger wind gusts today and tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

INZ076>078-083-020715-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Dubois-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, and Jasper
305 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The remnants of Tropical Depression Harvey will bring periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall to southern Indiana today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

RJS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1036 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W RUSSELLVILLE        36.84N 86.93W
09/01/2017  M8.20 INCH       LOGAN              KY   MESONET

            KENTUCKY MESONET STATION RSVL STORM TOTAL
            RAINFALL THROUGH 9:30 AM CDT.

&&

EBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1040 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ENE PROVIDENCE        36.69N 86.62W
09/01/2017  M6.83 INCH       SIMPSON            KY   MESONET

            KENTUCKY MESONET STATION SWZR STORM TOTAL
            RAINFALL AS OF 9:35 AM CDT.

&&

EBW