Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Louisville, KY

879 
WGUS73 KLMK 010914
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
414 AM CDT FRI SEP 1 2017

KYC031-141-227-011230-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-170901T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Logan KY-Butler KY-Warren KY-
414 AM CDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 AM CDT FOR
NORTHERN LOGAN...SOUTHERN BUTLER AND WARREN COUNTIES...

At 413 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the warned 
area. Between 4 and 6 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is 
occurring.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Bowling Green, Plum Springs, Crestmoor, Memphis Junction, Mount
Victor, Anderson, Lewisburg, Smiths Grove, Woodburn and Oakland.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to locally 2 inches are possible 
over the next 2 hours in the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 8705 3707 8694 3709 8690 3710 8690
      3711 8689 3713 8691 3724 8643 3717 8640
      3708 8628 3710 8622 3708 8619 3706 8611
      3694 8617 3689 8627 3686 8628 3678 8640
      3681 8641 3683 8658 3693 8664 3692 8706

$$

ZT

436 
WGUS73 KLMK 011227
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
727 AM CDT FRI SEP 1 2017

KYC031-141-227-011236-
/O.EXP.KLMK.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-170901T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Logan KY-Butler KY-Warren KY-
727 AM CDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN LOGAN...SOUTHERN BUTLER AND
WARREN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 730 AM CDT...

The Flash Flood Warning has been replaced by an Areal Flood Warning. 
The heaviest rainfall has ended and most roads are closed due to 
standing water, rather than flowing water. Therefore, the Flash 
Flood Warning has been replaced by an Areal Flood Warning.

LAT...LON 3706 8705 3707 8694 3709 8690 3710 8690
      3711 8689 3713 8691 3724 8643 3717 8640
      3708 8628 3710 8622 3708 8619 3706 8611
      3694 8617 3689 8627 3686 8628 3678 8640
      3681 8641 3683 8658 3693 8664 3692 8706

$$

SCHOETTMER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
124 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...Heavy Rain Expected Tonight into Friday...

Harvey's circulation over northwest Mississippi this evening will
proceed to Tennessee by morning, south central Kentucky Friday
evening, and into northeast Kentucky Saturday morning. Rain will
move into southern Kentucky this evening and spread northward across
the rest of Kentucky overnight and into southern Indiana early
Friday morning. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to
be widespread Friday and Friday night as the low moves through.
Showers will then gradually taper off from west to east on Saturday
as the low moves off and weakens significantly.

The track and speed of the low will play a large part with where the
heaviest rain sets up. After coordinating with OHRFC, WPC, and
nearby offices, the forecast appears to only need minor tweaks. We
will continue with 4 to 6 inches in a swath across much of central
Kentucky with lesser amounts in Indiana and towards the Lake
Cumberland region. Rains of this magnitude, over the course of about
36 hours, will result in rises on areas creeks and streams. While
smaller creeks may leave their banks, the larger rivers will have a
harder time reaching flood stage given how dry we've been recently
and only minor flooding of significant rivers is expected. The Ohio
River should remain well within its banks given this amount of rain.
Of course, one thing to watch out for is bands of heavier rain
training over the same location leading to locally higher rainfall
amounts. Also, flooding issues may arise in urban areas and locations
that do not drain easily.

Low level shear will increase late tonight and will be strong Friday
in eastern sections of central Kentucky. Many tornado warnings have
been issued in the east and northeast quadrants of the storm over
the mid Mississippi Valley today. Up here tomorrow, however,
instability will be weaker than what the areas to our south are
seeing today. Given widespread coverage of clouds and rain late
tonight and tomorrow, a brief weak spin-up will certainly be
possible but it appears that SPC's marginal risk area is
appropriate. The best chance of a spin-up will be in the Lake
Cumberland region.

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

Nearly stationary high pressure over the mid-Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys will provide us with dry, pleasant weather through
the holiday. High temperatures should be around 80 with lows around
60.

Low pressure crossing Quebec will drag its cold front through
Indiana and Kentucky Tuesday/Tuesday night. Showers will accompany
this system. Behind it Canadian high pressure should be able to
build in, however there are large difference among the models so
confidence in the last couple of days of the forecast is lower than
usual.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

Rain shield associated with Harvey has nearly covered central
Kentucky and is slowly working its way northward. Should see the
entire region overspread with rain by daybreak. The rain will be
heavy at times, and cigs/vis will be as low as IFR with local LIFR.
Winds will also be gusty out of the northeast this morning, with
some gusts approaching or even exceeding 30kts. Models suggest there
could be some breaks in the precipitation across eastern portions of
the CWA later this morning and afternoon, but confidence in timing
of these breaks is not high enough to reflect in TAFs.

&&

.Hydrology...
Updated at 944 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

Tropical Storm Harvey's remnants will bring heavy rain to the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys, primarily tonight and Friday. Areal average
rainfall totals will peak just to the left of the track of the
surface center of Harvey. Have the peak values running from
Russellville northeast to Georgetown, KY. For now, have highest
values near Bowling Green, with 4-6" of rainfall on average with
higher amounts in some spots.  A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
for most locations for tonight and Friday.

Minor flooding issues could commence during the late night hours
Thursday night. Nighttime flooding is particularly dangerous, and
will have to be monitored closely.

Significant river flooding is not expected at this time. Streams
under these training bands of rain could rise to capacity and
beyond. The greatest chance for minor flooding will be in the
Barren, Rough, and Green River basins.

&&

.Climate...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

Record rainfall for September 1:
Louisville: 2.95", 1965
Lexington: 1.91", 1905
Bowling Green: 2.00", 1938

Record Cold Maximum Temperature for September 1:
Louisville: 65 degrees, 1892
Lexington:  62 degrees, 1892
Bowling Green: 70 degrees, 1976

Record Cold Maximum Temperature for September 2:
Louisville: 68 degrees, 2006
Lexington:  66 degrees, 2006
Bowling Green: 68 degrees, 2006

Of note as well as we close out the month of August. August will be
the first month since May 2016 that the average temperature was more
than a degree below normal for the month at SDF/LEX. Each month
since then either has been within a degree of normal or above it.
BWG's streak goes a little further back, to January 2016.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ079-084-089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ023>043-045>049-
     053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

Short Term...13
Long Term....13
Aviation...DM
Hydrology....MJ
Climate......13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1009 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

INZ079-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082-020215-
Jefferson-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-
Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-
Franklin-Scott-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-
Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-
Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-
Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-
Clinton-
Including the cities of Madison, English, Tell City, Corydon,
New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg,
Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville,
Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville,
Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg,
Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield,
Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon,
Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
1009 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 /909 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Overnight.

Tropical Depression Harvey will bring periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall tonight, especially after midnight. Areas that receive
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall likely will see some street
flooding as well as rises on area creeks and rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue through the day
Friday. These rains will continue the threat for some minor
flooding.

In addition to the heavy rain threat, isolated weak, short-lived
tornadoes are possible over eastern sections of central Kentucky,
especially the Lake Cumberland region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight through Friday night.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

INZ076>078-083-020215-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Dubois-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, and Jasper
1009 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Overnight.

Tropical Depression Harvey will bring periods of moderate rainfall
to southern Indiana late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Moderate rainfall can be expected on Friday and Friday night as
well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1142 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

KYZ064-074>078-081-082-010545-
Russell-Monroe-Metcalfe-Cumberland-Barren-Adair-Green-Clinton-
1142 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

...POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...

At 1141 PM CDT, radar indicated a line of heavy rain located from
near Scottsville to near Albany. Movement was north at 25 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Glasgow, Columbia, Tompkinsville, Albany, Jamestown, Edmonton,
Burkesville, Leslie, Russell Springs and Horse Cave.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3663 8597 3666 8595 3690 8607 3686 8611
      3693 8617 3706 8611 3706 8607 3716 8606
      3717 8568 3711 8552 3717 8537 3718 8504
      3711 8496 3711 8490 3705 8491 3700 8484
      3696 8495 3686 8506 3662 8499
TIME...MOT...LOC 0441Z 184DEG 29KT 3672 8609 3673 8509

ZT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1220 AM CDT FRI SEP 1 2017

KYZ026-061-062-070-071-073-074-010615-
Warren-Logan-Allen-Edmonson-Barren-Butler-Ohio-
1220 AM CDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

At 1218 AM CDT, radar indicated a band of heavy rain extending from
near Beaver Dam to Morgantown to Bowling Green, slowly moving north
at 20 to 30 mph.

Torrential rainfall is occurring, and may cause localized flooding.
Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Locations impacted include... Bowling Green, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Plum Springs, Memphis Junction, Mount
Victor, Crestmoor, Anderson, Casey and Lee.

LAT...LON 3734 8714 3738 8709 3743 8710 3742 8662
      3732 8647 3734 8616 3722 8605 3717 8606
      3716 8600 3694 8613 3677 8640 3681 8641
      3682 8648 3693 8666 3692 8706 3706 8705
      3709 8690 3716 8693 3719 8689 3736 8703
TIME...MOT...LOC 0518Z 216DEG 40KT 3732 8700 3713 8609

ZT