Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1144 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

.DISCUSSION...SPC has upgraded the Day 1 outlook for a high risk
of severe over central and north-central Louisiana, then west
into east Texas. This does include our counties/parishes of Tyler,
Jasper, Newton, Vernon, and Rapides. Otherwise, a slight to
moderate risk continues over the remainder of the forecast area.
Tornado watch is in effect for the previous mentioned area, and
also Hardin county. Earlier rogue hailers over Acadiana have
exited to the northeast and local radar currently rather quiet.
Any development however that does occur will have the potential to
rapidly go severe. Forecast looks good and no update will be
required.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAFS

AVIATION...
Somewhat complex looking taf package, but what is being described
is essentially two waves of precipitation. The first is already
ongoing with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing near a
northward advancing warm front. This activity will gradually push
northward over the next few hours.

The second round of activity will occur later this afternoon into
the overnight hours as a low pressure area and an associated cold
front move east out of Texas across the area. Widespread
thunderstorms are expected with the second wave some of which
could be strong to severe. Discreet supercells are expected to
develop out ahead of a squall line. Attempted to time out the
progression of said squall line with the latest short range
guidance to determine the general end time of precipitation but
this will likely fluctuate based on observations later in the day.

Jones

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Short Term...Today through Monday

Main forecast issue will be severe weather potential later today
and tonight. Latest SPC outlook has confined the Moderate Risk
to north of Highway 190 with an Enhanced Risk elsewhere. Best
chance for severe weather will be late afternoon over SE
Texas...evening hours over southwest and central Louisiana...late
evening and overnight across Acadiana Region. Models are
continuing to show favorable shear and thermodynamic profile
which will certainly support development of high precipitation
supercells. Severe weather threat should end around 12Z over the
eastern CWA...but will have low POPs there through 18Z as
lingering upper energy moves through the area. Good low and mid
level thte is supporting PWATs near 2 inches so bursts of heavy
rain could occur could lead to localized flooding especially
tonight.

With front and upper trough moving east of the area Monday
morning...drier weather is forecasted. High temperatures will be
near 80 with west winds 10 to 15 mph.

Hazards...no plans in changing hazards at this time. Wind advisory
for today and early tonight. Highest winds should be during the
afternoon hours. FFA will remain in effect as total QPFs of 2-4
inches are expected with higher local amounts likely. Highest
amounts are expected over Acadiana.

Long Term...Monday night through Saturday
Overall a dry weather pattern is expected. Modest moisture return is
forecasted beginning Tuesday night. Next upper trough forecasted
to move into the Central Plains late Tuesday but is anticipated
to not dig as far south. Moisture profile at this time only
supports low POPs for Wednesday. Surge of cooler air will arrive
by late Wednesday. Dry weather with below normal temperatures are
expected for late in the week. Lows will likely drop into the 40s
across much of the area Wednesday and Thursday nights.

MARINE...
No changes to hazards.  Based on latest ESTOFS...tides may reach
above 3 feet above MLLW so will keep coastal flood advisory mainly
for high tide later today and this evening.  Good pressure gradient
is forecasted to remain in place through at least early this evening
so SCA through 06Z looks good. Winds and waves will diminish late
tonight through Monday. At this time...only modest onshore flow
is expected ahead of the front Tuesday and Tuesday night.
However...northerly winds behind the front may bring SCA
conditions Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  66  79  58 /  60  90  20   0
LCH  80  66  79  62 /  70  90  20   0
LFT  82  69  81  61 /  50  90  20   0
BPT  80  63  81  62 /  80  80  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for LAZ052>055-073-
     074.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for LAZ041>045-052>055-073-
     074.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for TXZ215.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for TXZ201-215-216-261-262.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ430-432-
     435-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

PUBLIC...04

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
848 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     HAIL             DUSON                   30.23N 92.19W
04/02/2017  E1.00 INCH       LAFAYETTE          LA   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURE OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN DUSON.

&&

STW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
854 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 AM     HAIL             LAFAYETTE               30.22N 92.03W
04/02/2017  E1.00 INCH       LAFAYETTE          LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL FROM MEDIA SOURCE.

&&

STW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
901 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     HAIL             LAFAYETTE               30.22N 92.03W
04/02/2017  E1.25 INCH       LAFAYETTE          LA   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT AND VIDEO OF APPROXIMATELY
            HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL

&&

STW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1007 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

LAZ033-043-021545-
Acadia LA-St. Landry LA-
1007 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ACADIA AND ST.
LANDRY PARISHES UNTIL 1045 AM CDT...

At 1006 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Swords to near Sunset to near Arnaudville.
Movement was north at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Opelousas, Church Point, Leonville, Arnaudville, Melville, Palmetto,
Bayou Current, Morrow, Sunset, Port Barre, Washington, Grand Coteau,
Prairie Ronde, Lawtell, Whiteville, Big Cane, Grand Prairie and
Lebeau.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3066 9175 3056 9176 3041 9189 3040 9193
      3041 9198 3037 9199 3036 9203 3038 9205
      3037 9207 3042 9228 3057 9223 3057 9221
      3065 9220 3068 9217 3075 9217 3085 9214
      3085 9181 3081 9181 3075 9175 3067 9173
TIME...MOT...LOC 1506Z 200DEG 36KT 3048 9224 3046 9210 3040 9196

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1233 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

LAZ027-030-031-021800-
Allen-Beauregard-Vernon-
1233 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BEAUREGARD...
SOUTHEASTERN VERNON AND NORTH CENTRAL ALLEN PARISHES...

At 1233 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Tulla, or 8
miles northwest of Dry Creek, moving north at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dry Creek, Pitkin, Sugartown, Fort Polk, Grant, Deridder, Tulla,
Fullerton, Cravens and Bundick Lake.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3106 9283 3096 9282 3061 9307 3067 9327
      3117 9319
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 199DEG 49KT 3072 9317

TWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1239 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

LAZ027-028-031-032-021815-
Evangeline-Allen-Vernon-Rapides-
1239 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN RAPIDES...
NORTHWESTERN EVANGELINE...SOUTHEASTERN VERNON AND NORTHEASTERN ALLEN
PARISHES...

At 1238 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Elizabeth,
moving north at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oakdale, Oberlin, Glenmora, Elizabeth, Hineston, Pitkin, Mittie,
Grant, Lecompte, Lacamp, Elmer, Allen Parish Airport, Leander,
Beaver, Bond, Calcasieu, Forest Hill, Mcnary and Union Hill.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3055 9270 3062 9297 3122 9293 3108 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 201DEG 39KT 3085 9281

TWH