Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
640 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...
Somewhat complex looking taf package, but what is being described
is essentially two waves of precipitation. The first is already
ongoing with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing near a
northward advancing warm front. This activity will gradually push
northward over the next few hours.

The second round of activity will occur later this afternoon into
the overnight hours as a low pressure area and an associated cold
front move east out of Texas across the area. Widespread
thunderstorms are expected with the second wave some of which
could be strong to severe. Discreet supercells are expected to
develop out ahead of a squall line. Attempted to time out the
progression of said squall line with the latest short range
guidance to determine the general end time of precipitation but
this will likely fluctuate based on observations later in the day.

Jones

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Short Term...Today through Monday

Main forecast issue will be severe weather potential later today
and tonight. Latest SPC outlook has confined the Moderate Risk
to north of Highway 190 with an Enhanced Risk elsewhere. Best
chance for severe weather will be late afternoon over SE
Texas...evening hours over southwest and central Louisiana...late
evening and overnight across Acadiana Region. Models are
continuing to show favorable shear and thermodynamic profile
which will certainly support development of high precipitation
supercells. Severe weather threat should end around 12Z over the
eastern CWA...but will have low POPs there through 18Z as
lingering upper energy moves through the area. Good low and mid
level thte is supporting PWATs near 2 inches so bursts of heavy
rain could occur could lead to localized flooding especially
tonight.

With front and upper trough moving east of the area Monday
morning...drier weather is forecasted. High temperatures will be
near 80 with west winds 10 to 15 mph.

Hazards...no plans in changing hazards at this time. Wind advisory
for today and early tonight. Highest winds should be during the
afternoon hours. FFA will remain in effect as total QPFs of 2-4
inches are expected with higher local amounts likely. Highest
amounts are expected over Acadiana.

Long Term...Monday night through Saturday
Overall a dry weather pattern is expected. Modest moisture return is
forecasted beginning Tuesday night. Next upper trough forecasted
to move into the Central Plains late Tuesday but is anticipated
to not dig as far south. Moisture profile at this time only
supports low POPs for Wednesday. Surge of cooler air will arrive
by late Wednesday. Dry weather with below normal temperatures are
expected for late in the week. Lows will likely drop into the 40s
across much of the area Wednesday and Thursday nights.

MARINE...
No changes to hazards.  Based on latest ESTOFS...tides may reach
above 3 feet above MLLW so will keep coastal flood advisory mainly
for high tide later today and this evening.  Good pressure gradient
is forecasted to remain in place through at least early this evening
so SCA through 06Z looks good. Winds and waves will diminish late
tonight through Monday. At this time...only modest onshore flow
is expected ahead of the front Tuesday and Tuesday night.
However...northerly winds behind the front may bring SCA
conditions Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  66  79  58 /  90  90  10   0
LCH  79  66  79  62 /  90  90  10   0
LFT  81  69  81  61 /  90  90  20   0
BPT  79  63  81  62 /  90  80  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Monday
     morning for LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT
     Monday for LAZ052>055-073-074.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Monday for
     LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Monday
     morning for TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT
     Monday for TXZ215.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Monday for
     TXZ201-215-216-261-262.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ430-432-
     435-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

AVIATION...66

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
545 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
031045-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
545 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
There will be a moderate risk of severe weather today and tonight
mainly north of Highway 190. An enhanced risk of severe weather
is forecasted for the remainder of southeast Texas and southwest
Louisiana through tonight.

A low pressure system in south Texas will move northeast today
and tonight. A strong upper level disturbance will move closer to
the area. This combined with warm, unstable air will allow for
strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. Here is the general
timing for the highest likelihood of severe weather across the
area...

Southeast Texas...late this afternoon through early this evening

Southwest and Central Louisiana...early this evening through
midnight.

South Central Louisiana...late this evening through the overnight
hours.

Conditions are very favorable for damaging winds and large hail.
The wind profile is also favorable for the development of
supercell thunderstorms which can produce tornadoes.

Besides the threat for severe weather...torrential rain may bring
localized flooding to the area.

Residents are highly urged to monitor weather conditions today and
tonight. Be sure to have a means to obtain weather and warning
information quickly.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday
Another upper disturbance will move into the Central Plains by the
middle of this week. This will bring a slight chance of
thunderstorms on Wednesday. No severe weather is anticipated.

Otherwise..no hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be needed today and tonight.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-031045-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
545 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Minor coastal flooding is expected for today as moderate to strong
southerly winds will bring much higher than normal tides to the
coast.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the bays, nearshore and
offshore waters. Mariners should also be aware that scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are forecasted. Frequent lightning,
torrential rain and gusty and potentially damaging winds may also
accompany the storms.

Mariners are highly urged to monitor weather conditions today and
tonight. Be sure to have a means to obtain weather and warning
information quickly.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday
Winds will diminish on Monday.

Another upper disturbance will move into the Central Plains by the
middle of this week. This will bring a slight chance of
thunderstorms on Wednesday. At this time, no hazardous weather is
expected, but the passage of a cold front will bring moderate to
strong offshore flow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
729 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

LAZ028-030>033-042-043-021315-
Acadia LA-Jefferson Davis LA-St. Landry LA-Evangeline LA-Allen LA-
Beauregard LA-Rapides LA-
729 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL RAPIDES...NORTHERN
JEFFERSON DAVIS...SOUTHEASTERN BEAUREGARD...EVANGELINE...NORTHWESTERN
ACADIA...CENTRAL ST. LANDRY AND ALLEN PARISHES UNTIL 815 AM CDT...

At 728 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Reeves to 6 miles east of Pine Island. Movement
was northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Opelousas, Eunice, Jennings, Oakdale, Ville Platte, Mamou, Welsh,
Kinder, Basile, Oberlin, Iota, Glenmora, Elton, Turkey Creek, Fenton,
Reeves, Mittie, Evangeline, Pine Prairie and Washington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3087 9224 3085 9224 3085 9221 3067 9186
      3017 9272 3036 9303 3038 9303 3038 9307
      3047 9322 3102 9254
TIME...MOT...LOC 1228Z 233DEG 47KT 3052 9307 3032 9268

Jones

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
732 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

LAZ033-042>045-052-021315-
Acadia LA-Jefferson Davis LA-Lafayette LA-St. Landry LA-Vermilion LA-
Upper St. Martin LA-
732 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LAFAYETTE...EAST CENTRAL
JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA...NORTHWESTERN VERMILION...NORTHWESTERN ST.
MARTIN AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. LANDRY PARISHES UNTIL 815 AM CDT...

At 731 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Morse, or near Gueydan, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Opelousas, Crowley, Jennings, Rayne, Carencro, Church
Point, Gueydan, Krotz Springs, Leonville, Arnaudville, Mermentau,
Sunset, Port Barre, Duson, Grand Coteau, Morse, Cankton, Maxie and
Mire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2998 9252 3017 9272 3067 9186 3055 9175
      3051 9173 3051 9175 3050 9175 3050 9170
      3048 9169 3048 9170
TIME...MOT...LOC 1231Z 233DEG 46KT 3010 9252

Jones