Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
617 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

The NAM and HRRR/HRRR EXP models have been persistent showing storm
development across the central Sandhills this afternoon and this
evening. This is related to a weak frontal boundary drifting south
through the region. Winds aloft at 500mb strengthen a bit to 35kt to
perhaps 45kt this evening. Instability, 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE should
be sufficient for supercell development. Temperatures at H700mb have
warmed to near 10C across Srn Neb and this could be a capping
mechanism as activity moves south toward I-80 this evening. The
models show storm activity breaking up and becoming scattered or
even isolated.

A second disturbance across the cntl Rockies this afternoon should
move east into Wrn Neb late tonight. The showers and thunderstorms
may dissipate as they move through Wrn Neb. The models suggest they
will encounter rain-cooled and more stable air.

POPs for tonight are limited to 40 percent given the limited
coverage shown by the HRRR models. Storm activity should diminish
Monday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are in place
Monday afternoon. The forcing for storm development Monday is highly
uncertain but the instability and cape are favorable.

The SREF was the basis for the fog forecast Monday morning. The RAP
and NAM models maintain a moist layer at h700mb. This should prevent
dense fog from forming. The SREF and MET guidance suggest fog will
form and the forecast is for patchy fog.

The temperature forecast uses blended guidance plus bias correction
for lows in the 50s and 60s with highs in the 80s Monday. A weak
frontal boundary should be draped across Ncntl Neb keeping highs
across Ncntl Neb near 80 while highs rise toward 90 across the
Southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

The GFS and ECM suggest any storm development Monday afternoon would
grow upscale across ncntl Neb Monday evening. Winds aloft at 500mb
decrease to 25-30kt suggesting the severe weather potential will be
lower. SPC is favoring the Black Hills for genesis and awarded the
Hills a 5 percent severe chance.

Two other significant rain chances develop Tuesday and Thursday and
instability returns Saturday for what could be a third rain
event/opportunity. A broad upper level trof will migrate through
Canada furnishing jetlets of wind speed maxima aloft and an
occasional lowering of heights across Nebraska appear to be the
foci for storm development.

The situation late Tuesday has been advertised for several model
runs now and ambient precipitable water increases to over 1.5 inches
Tuesday afternoon. Winds at 500mb are 25-35kt perhaps suggesting a
HP multicell environment. POPs are 60 percent for this event and SPC
has a 5 percent severe chance covering much Cntl and Swrn Neb.

Moisture returns Thursday and another disturbance moves through.
Winds aloft increase to 25-35kt once again and precipitable water
increases to 1.25-1.50 inches. The model consensus shows h700mb
temperatures falling to around 8C presenting a weak cap.

A similar set up is in place Saturday with warmer temperatures at
700mb.

Highs in the 80s are expected this week and a gradual warming trend
develops Thursday through Saturday. This supports increasing
instability and a strengthening cap at 700mb which could limit
storm coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Isolated to scattered storm coverage is underway and should
generally continue as depicted by the HRRR model which shows the
storms exiting south around 03z.

A second disturbance across the Laramie range this evening should
move east into Wrn Neb later tonight. The showers and
thunderstorms may dissipate as they move through Wrn Neb. The
models suggest they will encounter rain-cooled and more stable
air. Any storm activity should diminish Monday morning.

The MET guidance, NAM and SREF models suggest MVFR/IFR cigs/vsby
will develop tonight. The SREF was the basis for fairly widespread
stratus developing.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
307 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-142015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
307 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017 /207 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected.

The area of concern for severe weather is generally along and
south of a line from Oshkosh to Mullen to Springview.

The hazards are scattered storms with large hail, isolated storms
with very large hail, two inches in diameter or larger, wind
damage and locally heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado may form
also.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A few isolated strong thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and
Monday night. However, better chances for isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms exist Tuesday and Tuesday evening across all
of the outlook area. Large hail up to one inch diameter and
damaging winds will be possible.

Unsettled conditions continue Thursday and Thursday night,
however, the threat for strong or severe thunderstorms is
uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
624 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HAIL             MERNA                   41.48N 99.76W
08/13/2017  E1.50 INCH       CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

&&

SNIVELY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
626 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2017

NEZ026-027-140015-
Loup NE-Blaine NE-
626 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOUP AND NORTHEASTERN BLAINE
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 626 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles south of Rose to 8 miles northwest of
Taylor to near Brewster. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Brewster, Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area, Fox Bayou, Almeria
Meadow State Wildlife Management Area, Horseshoe Bend Lake, Hannamon
Bayou Campground, Almeria, Nunda Shoal Campground and Valley View
Flat Campground.

This includes Highway 183 between mile markers 125 and 146.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4208 9925 4176 9924 4187 9996 4205 9986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 279DEG 14KT 4202 9946 4188 9946 4196 9980

CDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
635 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     HAIL             MERNA                   41.48N 99.76W
08/13/2017  E2.50 INCH       CUSTER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SNIVELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
636 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MERNA                   41.48N 99.76W
08/13/2017                   CUSTER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING IN MERNA

&&

SNIVELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
646 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     HAIL             BROKEN BOW              41.41N 99.64W
08/13/2017  E1.50 INCH       CUSTER             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SNIVELY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
649 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2017

NEZ007-010-140030-
Holt NE-Boyd NE-
649 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 648 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lynch to 6 miles southeast of Spencer.
Movement was east at 10 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lynch, Bristow, Monowi, Dorsey, Scottville and Redbird State Wildlife
Management Area.

This includes Highway 12 between mile markers 121 and 135.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4260 9848 4281 9864 4293 9844 4293 9841
      4291 9835 4288 9831 4278 9830 4270 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 285DEG 11KT 4290 9840 4281 9861

CDC