Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
307 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

The NAM and HRRR/HRRR EXP models have been persistent showing storm
development across the central Sandhills this afternoon and this
evening. This is related to a weak frontal boundary drifting south
through the region. Winds aloft at 500mb strengthen a bit to 35kt to
perhaps 45kt this evening. Instability, 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE should
be sufficient for supercell development. Temperatures at H700mb have
warmed to near 10C across Srn Neb and this could be a capping
mechanism as activity moves south toward I-80 this evening. The
models show storm activity breaking up and becoming scattered or
even isolated.

A second disturbance across the cntl Rockies this afternoon should
move east into Wrn Neb late tonight. The showers and thunderstorms
may dissipate as they move through Wrn Neb. The models suggest they
will encounter rain-cooled and more stable air.

POPs for tonight are limited to 40 percent given the limited
coverage shown by the HRRR models. Storm activity should diminish
Monday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are in place
Monday afternoon. The forcing for storm development Monday is highly
uncertain but the instability and cape are favorable.

The SREF was the basis for the fog forecast Monday morning. The RAP
and NAM models maintain a moist layer at h700mb. This should prevent
dense fog from forming. The SREF and MET guidance suggest fog will
form and the forecast is for patchy fog.

The temperature forecast uses blended guidance plus bias correction
for lows in the 50s and 60s with highs in the 80s Monday. A weak
frontal boundary should be draped across Ncntl Neb keeping highs
across Ncntl Neb near 80 while highs rise toward 90 across the
Southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

The GFS and ECM suggest any storm development Monday afternoon would
grow upscale across ncntl Neb Monday evening. Winds aloft at 500mb
decrease to 25-30kt suggesting the severe weather potential will be
lower. SPC is favoring the Black Hills for genesis and awarded the
Hills a 5 percent severe chance.

Two other significant rain chances develop Tuesday and Thursday and
instability returns Saturday for what could be a third rain
event/opportunity. A broad upper level trof will migrate through
Canada furnishing jetlets of wind speed maxima aloft and an
occasional lowering of heights across Nebraska appear to be the
foci for storm development.

The situation late Tuesday has been advertised for several model
runs now and ambient precipitable water increases to over 1.5 inches
Tuesday afternoon. Winds at 500mb are 25-35kt perhaps suggesting a
HP multicell environment. POPs are 60 percent for this event and SPC
has a 5 percent severe chance covering much Cntl and Swrn Neb.

Moisture returns Thursday and another disturbance moves through.
Winds aloft increase to 25-35kt once again and precipitable water
increases to 1.25-1.50 inches. The model consensus shows h700mb
temperatures falling to around 8C presenting a weak cap.

A similar set up is in place Saturday with warmer temperatures at
700mb.

Highs in the 80s are expected this week and a gradual warming trend
develops Thursday through Saturday. This supports increasing
instability and a strengthening cap at 700mb which could limit
storm coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

The NAM and HRRR/HRRR EXP models have been persistent showing storm
development across the central Sandhills this afternoon (19z-20z)
and this evening. This is related to a weak frontal boundary
drifting south through the region. Scattered storm coverage is
expected and storms should move east, southeast and south.

A second disturbance across the cntl Rockies this afternoon should
move east into Wrn Neb late tonight. The showers and thunderstorms
may dissipate as they move through Wrn Neb. The models suggest they
will encounter rain-cooled and more stable air. Any storm
activity should diminish Monday morning.

The MET guidance, NAM and SREF models suggest MVFR/IFR cigs/vsby
will develop tonight. The SREF was the basis for fairly widespread
stratus developing. It would appear the bank of MVFR across SD
this afternoon will sink south tonight in the wake of the
thunderstorms. The onset of the MVFR across nrn Neb is very
uncertain since those conditions are only a few miles north of the
border in SD. The SREF is slow to develop those conditions.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
307 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-142015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
307 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017 /207 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected.

The area of concern for severe weather is generally along and
south of a line from Oshkosh to Mullen to Springview.

The hazards are scattered storms with large hail, isolated storms
with very large hail, two inches in diameter or larger, wind
damage and locally heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado may form
also.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A few isolated strong thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and
Monday night. However, better chances for isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms exist Tuesday and Tuesday evening across all
of the outlook area. Large hail up to one inch diameter and
damaging winds will be possible.

Unsettled conditions continue Thursday and Thursday night,
however, the threat for strong or severe thunderstorms is
uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
437 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2017

NEZ038-132215-
Custer NE-
437 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CDT...

At 437 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Dunning, or 19 miles northeast of Stapleton,
moving southeast at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Custer
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4162 10025 4169 10025 4164 10003 4152 10014
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 301DEG 7KT 4164 10021

CDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
501 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HAIL             6 NNW ANSELMO           41.70N 99.91W
08/13/2017  M1.00 INCH       CUSTER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SNIVELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
517 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             2 NW ANSELMO            41.64N 99.89W
08/13/2017  E1.50 INCH       CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

            HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE COVERING THE GROUND

&&

SNIVELY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
428 PM MDT SUN AUG 13 2017

NEZ058-132315-
Perkins NE-
428 PM MDT SUN AUG 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PERKINS COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MDT...

At 428 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Venango, or 10 miles southwest of Grant, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brandon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
southwestern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4082 10199 4084 10191 4071 10173 4070 10174
      4070 10193 4071 10193
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 322DEG 9KT 4078 10191

CDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
533 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             1 NW ANSELMO            41.63N 99.88W
08/13/2017  M1.25 INCH       CUSTER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SNIVELY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
537 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2017

NEZ036-037-132315-
McPherson NE-Logan NE-
537 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 536 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
between Ringgold and Tryon, moving east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stapleton, Gandy and Ringgold.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 206 and 234.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 20 and 26.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 106 and 118.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern and west central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4143 10093 4154 10092 4158 10044 4139 10047
      4139 10055
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 274DEG 24KT 4150 10086

Snively