Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
625 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Latest water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough extending
roughly from western MT to UT with a ridge downstream across the
Central High Plains into the Northern Plains. A stationary
boundary is located at the surface across far northwest NEB to the
Central Sandhills to north central NEB. Local radar display shows
isolated thunderstorms developing near the boundary in Garfield
and Wheeler counties. However, convection hasn't been that strong
at this point with reflectivity cores peaking largely between
25-30 kft. Latest vis imagery shows outside of this area an
enhanced cumulus field and growth between Broken Bow to Almeria
to Ewing and upstream of there across portions of the central
Sandhills.

Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows moderate instability presently with
very little inhibition across the NEB Panhandle into central NEB
with MLCAPES ranging from 1500-2500 J/kg. Surface dew points are
expected to range from the mid 50s in far western NEB to lower 60s
in north central NEB. Deep layer vertical wind shear (0-6 km) is
presently only about 25 kts, however, it expected to increase to
early evening peaking around 30-35 kts. As such, storms modes
favored in development this afternoon and evening is primarily
organized multicells, though some supercells cannot be ruled out.
Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats this
afternoon and evening given characteristics of soundings. Wherein
a dry sub-cloud layer is expected to be in place, ample DCAPE,
decent mid-level lapse rates, and quantity of CAPE in the HGZ to
favor larger hail growth. Initially concerns will be towards
isolated to scattered thunderstorms development across the
aforementioned boundary this afternoon into evening over the
central Sandhills towards the Interstate 80 corridor. Then
thunderstorm chances are tailored towards development upstream to
our west. Storms that develop in the higher terrain are expected
to then move eastward into the local forecast area. Of which, the
greatest chances for this is over the southwest quad and northern
NEB, the latter from development occurring in SD.

Low temperatures should be on the mild side with clouds and
elevated winds tonight. Cooler highs tomorrow. There is a marginal
risk for thunderstorms as well. Details are a little harder to
pinpoint given thunderstorms today and tonight will influence
tomorrow. This spread in the forecast envelope is seen in
deterministic guidance as well. While moderate instability is
expected to be present with surface dew points similar to today,
if not slightly higher in north central NEB more so towards the
mid 60s, uncertainty exists in low-level forcing. The short wave
trough will be moving from the Northern Plains to Central High
Plains early tomorrow morning farther into the Northern/Central
Plains Monday. Further, deep layer vertical wind shear should be
weaker. As such, the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms is
there but it's expected to be more isolated compared to today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Monday night through Wednesday...The main forecast challenge will
be the chance for thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday, the
Fourth of July. There are uncertainties in the timing of
thunderstorm chances as models are not in agreement. The ECMWF has
a trough coming across the rockies on Monday then pushing through
western and central Nebraska Monday night. It then develops a
small closed low across northern Kansas and moves it northeast on
Tuesday. With this solution thunderstorms will be possible Monday
night across western and north central Nebraska as the shortwave
moves across and then a scattered chance of thunderstorms as the
Low moves northeast out of north central Kansas. The GFS solution
is slightly slower with the shortwave moving across and does not
form a closed low until the system has moved east of the area on
Wednesday with the low developing over Iowa. Tending to lean more
to GFS solution at the moment.

Confidence of thunderstorm development on Monday evening into
Monday night lingering into early Tuesday morning is moderate as
current thinking is the shortwave trough will act as the driving
force to initiate storm development as modest instability will be
available along with adequate moisture as dewpoints will be in
the 50s and 60s with a southeasterly wind. As for Tuesday
afternoon and evening confidence is low at this time for
thunderstorm development as there will be weak forcing across the
area. That being said the environment is unstable. 0 to 3 km most
unstable CAPE is adequate with 3000j/kg across the northeast CWA.
Isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled out especially across the
eastern part of the CWA.

Wednesday and Beyond...A ridge will develop and sit over the area
bringing a warm dry airmass over the central US and minimal
opportunities for rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

The storm activity across the sandhills should move south this
evening and exit the forecast area by 05z. A second area of storms
near the black hills will move east this evening and perhaps
affect Nrn Neb until 09z.

New storm activity is expected to develop across Ncntl Neb Monday
afternoon...generally affecting areas east of highway 83.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
325 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-032030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
325 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 /225 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and tonight across most of western Nebraska,
mainly along and south of a line from Lisco to Ellsworth to
Brownlee to Taylor. Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds into the evening hours.

A marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms exist
elsewhere.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

There is a marginal risk for severe storms across the entire
outlook area Monday afternoon and Monday night. A few storms will
be strong and approach severe levels, with damaging wind and
large hail possible.

A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms exists on Tuesday as
well, roughly east of a line from Wauneta to Eli. While storms
are not expected to be as numerous as Tuesday, strong to severe
storms are possible.

Dry and hot conditions are expected to move into the area by mid
week, lasting until Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening south
of a line from O'Neill to Valentine.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

ET

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
639 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     HAIL             5 S BROKEN BOW          41.33N 99.64W
07/02/2017  M1.00 INCH       CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

            HAIL FROM DIME TO QUARTER SIZE.

&&

SJACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
643 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     HAIL             S TRYON                 41.56N 100.94W
07/02/2017  M1.00 INCH       MCPHERSON          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

&&

SJACOBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
647 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEZ059-030030-
Lincoln NE-
647 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 646 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Stapleton, moving south at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Lincoln County.

This includes Highway 97 between mile markers 1 and 4.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4118 10085 4139 10070 4139 10047 4111 10047
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 005DEG 15KT 4137 10062

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
647 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEZ035-036-030015-
Arthur NE-McPherson NE-
647 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL ARTHUR AND WEST
CENTRAL MCPHERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT/615 PM MDT/...

At 647 PM CDT/547 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 13 miles east of Arthur, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bucktail Lake, Sand Beach Lake, Three Mile Lake, Flatts, Diamond Bar
Lake, Bucktail, Schnick Lake and Calora.

This includes Highway 92 between mile markers 172 and 188.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT/1100
PM MDT/ for west central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4163 10157 4170 10135 4150 10121 4144 10145
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 331DEG 18KT 4160 10143

ET

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
648 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEZ035-036-030015-
Arthur NE-McPherson NE-
648 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL ARTHUR AND WEST
CENTRAL MCPHERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT/615 PM MDT/...

At 648 PM CDT/548 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 13 miles east of Arthur, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bucktail Lake, Sand Beach Lake, Three Mile Lake, Flatts, Diamond Bar
Lake, Bucktail, Schnick Lake and Calora.

This includes Highway 92 between mile markers 172 and 188.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT/1100
PM MDT/ for west central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4163 10157 4170 10135 4150 10121 4144 10145
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 331DEG 18KT 4160 10142

ET