Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS North Platte, NE

149 
WWUS53 KLBF 022046
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
346 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEC071-183-022100-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-170702T2100Z/
Garfield NE-Wheeler NE-
346 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN GARFIELD AND SOUTHWESTERN WHEELER COUNTIES...

At 346 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
Ericson, or 13 miles northeast of Ord, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Ericson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4188 9894 4184 9868 4175 9867 4174 9867
      4175 9900
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 359DEG 6KT 4178 9883 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ET

471 
WWUS53 KLBF 022059
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
359 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEC071-183-022109-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-170702T2100Z/
Garfield NE-Wheeler NE-
359 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GARFIELD AND
SOUTHWESTERN WHEELER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail,
gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4188 9894 4184 9868 4175 9867 4174 9867
      4175 9900
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 009DEG 7KT 4176 9883 

$$

ET

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
301 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Latest water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough extending
roughly from western MT to UT with a ridge downstream across the
Central High Plains into the Northern Plains. A stationary
boundary is located at the surface across far northwest NEB to the
Central Sandhills to north central NEB. Local radar display shows
isolated thunderstorms developing near the boundary in Garfield
and Wheeler counties. However, convection hasn't been that strong
at this point with reflectivity cores peaking largely between
25-30 kft. Latest vis imagery shows outside of this area an
enhanced cumulus field and growth between Broken Bow to Almeria
to Ewing and upstream of there across portions of the central
Sandhills.

Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows moderate instability presently with
very little inhibition across the NEB Panhandle into central NEB
with MLCAPES ranging from 1500-2500 J/kg. Surface dew points are
expected to range from the mid 50s in far western NEB to lower 60s
in north central NEB. Deep layer vertical wind shear (0-6 km) is
presently only about 25 kts, however, it expected to increase to
early evening peaking around 30-35 kts. As such, storms modes
favored in development this afternoon and evening is primarily
organized multicells, though some supercells cannot be ruled out.
Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats this
afternoon and evening given characteristics of soundings. Wherein
a dry sub-cloud layer is expected to be in place, ample DCAPE,
decent mid-level lapse rates, and quantity of CAPE in the HGZ to
favor larger hail growth. Initially concerns will be towards
isolated to scattered thunderstorms development across the
aforementioned boundary this afternoon into evening over the
central Sandhills towards the Interstate 80 corridor. Then
thunderstorm chances are tailored towards development upstream to
our west. Storms that develop in the higher terrain are expected
to then move eastward into the local forecast area. Of which, the
greatest chances for this is over the southwest quad and northern
NEB, the latter from development occurring in SD.

Low temperatures should be on the mild side with clouds and
elevated winds tonight. Cooler highs tomorrow. There is a marginal
risk for thunderstorms as well. Details are a little harder to
pinpoint given thunderstorms today and tonight will influence
tomorrow. This spread in the forecast envelope is seen in
deterministic guidance as well. While moderate instability is
expected to be present with surface dew points similar to today,
if not slightly higher in north central NEB more so towards the
mid 60s, uncertainty exists in low-level forcing. The short wave
trough will be moving from the Northern Plains to Central High
Plains early tomorrow morning farther into the Northern/Central
Plains Monday. Further, deep layer vertical wind shear should be
weaker. As such, the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms is
there but it's expected to be more isolated compared to today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Monday night through Wednesday...The main forecast challenge will
be the chance for thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday, the
Fourth of July. There are uncertainties in the timing of
thunderstorm chances as models are not in agreement. The ECMWF has
a trough coming across the rockies on Monday then pushing through
western and central Nebraska Monday night. It then develops a
small closed low across northern Kansas and moves it northeast on
Tuesday. With this solution thunderstorms will be possible Monday
night across western and north central Nebraska as the shortwave
moves across and then a scattered chance of thunderstorms as the
Low moves northeast out of north central Kansas. The GFS solution
is slightly slower with the shortwave moving across and does not
form a closed low until the system has moved east of the area on
Wednesday with the low developing over Iowa. Tending to lean more
to GFS solution at the moment.

Confidence of thunderstorm development on Monday evening into
Monday night lingering into early Tuesday morning is moderate as
current thinking is the shortwave trough will act as the driving
force to initiate storm development as modest instability will be
available along with adequate moisture as dewpoints will be in
the 50s and 60s with a southeasterly wind. As for Tuesday
afternoon and evening confidence is low at this time for
thunderstorm development as there will be weak forcing across the
area. That being said the environment is unstable. 0 to 3 km most
unstable CAPE is adequate with 3000j/kg across the northeast CWA.
Isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled out especially across the
eastern part of the CWA.

Wednesday and Beyond...A ridge will develop and sit over the area
bringing a warm dry airmass over the central US and minimal
opportunities for rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Local radar display over the last hour shows the development of
isolated convection across Garfield and Wheeler counties.
Mostly clear skies prevail, except for a swath of diurnally
driven clouds and aforementioned convection in the vicinity of a
boundary that lies roughly w-e across the central Sandhills and
across north central NEB. There are two areas of concern for
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. First, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along said
boundary this afternoon. Any TSRA should then move southward.
Second, additional development is expected upstream to our west
that could move into the local forecast area, albeit there is
lower confidence associated with it. Late tonight into tomorrow
morning, the threat for thunderstorms will be confined more over
north central NEB than western NEB. Outside of impacts from
showers/thunderstorms, generally VFR conditions should prevail.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...ET

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
516 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-031030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
516 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 /416 AM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and tonight across most of western and north central Nebraska,
south of a line from O'Neill to Valentine to Oshkosh. A marginal
risk for severe weather exists elsewhere.

Several boundaries will exist across the area this afternoon as
temperatures warm quickly today, and will be the focus for
thunderstorm development by mid afternoon. The atmosphere will be
unstable this afternoon as well which will mean any storms that
do develop will be capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds into the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

There is a marginal risk for severe storms across most of western
and north central Nebraska Monday afternoon and night, east of a
line from Merriman to Big Springs. The unstable atmosphere will
remain in place across the area and as an upper level disturbance
moves across the area Monday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected
to develop. A few storms will be strong and approach severe
levels, with damaging wind and large hail possible.

A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms exists on Tuesday as
well, east of Highway 83 from North Platte to Valentine. However,
storms are not expected to be as numerous Tuesday.

Dry and hot conditions are expected to move into the area by mid
week, lasting until Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening south
of a line from O'Neill to Valentine.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

JWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
258 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEZ028-029-022045-
Wheeler NE-Garfield NE-
258 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GARFIELD AND
SOUTHWESTERN WHEELER COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 258 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Ericson, or 16 miles northeast of Burwell, moving
south at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gables.

LAT...LON 4174 9874 4174 9879 4175 9903 4197 9890
      4190 9868
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 022DEG 15KT 4187 9883

ET