Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS North Platte, NE

022 
WWUS53 KLBF 022226
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
526 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEC041-071-115-022300-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-170702T2300Z/
Loup NE-Garfield NE-Custer NE-
526 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN LOUP...SOUTHWESTERN GARFIELD AND NORTHEASTERN CUSTER
COUNTIES...

At 525 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Comstock to near Taylor to near Victoria Springs
State Recreation Area, and are nearly stationary.
 
HAZARD...Half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Public. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

Locations impacted include...
Taylor, Sargent, Comstock, Victoria Springs State Recreation Area,
Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area, Lillian, Milburn, Round
Valley, Walworth, Virginia Smith Dam, Arcadia Diversion Dam State
Wildlife Management Area, Wescott, Kent Diversion Dam State Wildlife
Management Area, Homestead Knolls Campground, Big Oak Canyon,
Almeria, Nunda Shoal Campground, Divide Hill and Gates.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 104 and 133.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 254 and 255.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 9918 4174 9921 4142 9922 4166 9993
      4174 9979 4174 9969 4180 9968 4191 9949
      4189 9917
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 015DEG 4KT 4158 9928 4173 9943 4167 9969 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

CDC

173 
WWUS53 KLBF 022254
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
554 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEC041-071-115-022302-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-170702T2300Z/
Loup NE-Garfield NE-Custer NE-
554 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN LOUP...SOUTHWESTERN
GARFIELD AND NORTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM
CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for 
Northern Custer County in central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4174 9918 4174 9921 4142 9922 4166 9993
      4174 9979 4174 9969 4180 9968 4191 9949
      4189 9917
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 047DEG 5KT 4163 9921 4178 9936 4172 9962 

$$

CDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
301 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Latest water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough extending
roughly from western MT to UT with a ridge downstream across the
Central High Plains into the Northern Plains. A stationary
boundary is located at the surface across far northwest NEB to the
Central Sandhills to north central NEB. Local radar display shows
isolated thunderstorms developing near the boundary in Garfield
and Wheeler counties. However, convection hasn't been that strong
at this point with reflectivity cores peaking largely between
25-30 kft. Latest vis imagery shows outside of this area an
enhanced cumulus field and growth between Broken Bow to Almeria
to Ewing and upstream of there across portions of the central
Sandhills.

Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows moderate instability presently with
very little inhibition across the NEB Panhandle into central NEB
with MLCAPES ranging from 1500-2500 J/kg. Surface dew points are
expected to range from the mid 50s in far western NEB to lower 60s
in north central NEB. Deep layer vertical wind shear (0-6 km) is
presently only about 25 kts, however, it expected to increase to
early evening peaking around 30-35 kts. As such, storms modes
favored in development this afternoon and evening is primarily
organized multicells, though some supercells cannot be ruled out.
Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats this
afternoon and evening given characteristics of soundings. Wherein
a dry sub-cloud layer is expected to be in place, ample DCAPE,
decent mid-level lapse rates, and quantity of CAPE in the HGZ to
favor larger hail growth. Initially concerns will be towards
isolated to scattered thunderstorms development across the
aforementioned boundary this afternoon into evening over the
central Sandhills towards the Interstate 80 corridor. Then
thunderstorm chances are tailored towards development upstream to
our west. Storms that develop in the higher terrain are expected
to then move eastward into the local forecast area. Of which, the
greatest chances for this is over the southwest quad and northern
NEB, the latter from development occurring in SD.

Low temperatures should be on the mild side with clouds and
elevated winds tonight. Cooler highs tomorrow. There is a marginal
risk for thunderstorms as well. Details are a little harder to
pinpoint given thunderstorms today and tonight will influence
tomorrow. This spread in the forecast envelope is seen in
deterministic guidance as well. While moderate instability is
expected to be present with surface dew points similar to today,
if not slightly higher in north central NEB more so towards the
mid 60s, uncertainty exists in low-level forcing. The short wave
trough will be moving from the Northern Plains to Central High
Plains early tomorrow morning farther into the Northern/Central
Plains Monday. Further, deep layer vertical wind shear should be
weaker. As such, the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms is
there but it's expected to be more isolated compared to today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Monday night through Wednesday...The main forecast challenge will
be the chance for thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday, the
Fourth of July. There are uncertainties in the timing of
thunderstorm chances as models are not in agreement. The ECMWF has
a trough coming across the rockies on Monday then pushing through
western and central Nebraska Monday night. It then develops a
small closed low across northern Kansas and moves it northeast on
Tuesday. With this solution thunderstorms will be possible Monday
night across western and north central Nebraska as the shortwave
moves across and then a scattered chance of thunderstorms as the
Low moves northeast out of north central Kansas. The GFS solution
is slightly slower with the shortwave moving across and does not
form a closed low until the system has moved east of the area on
Wednesday with the low developing over Iowa. Tending to lean more
to GFS solution at the moment.

Confidence of thunderstorm development on Monday evening into
Monday night lingering into early Tuesday morning is moderate as
current thinking is the shortwave trough will act as the driving
force to initiate storm development as modest instability will be
available along with adequate moisture as dewpoints will be in
the 50s and 60s with a southeasterly wind. As for Tuesday
afternoon and evening confidence is low at this time for
thunderstorm development as there will be weak forcing across the
area. That being said the environment is unstable. 0 to 3 km most
unstable CAPE is adequate with 3000j/kg across the northeast CWA.
Isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled out especially across the
eastern part of the CWA.

Wednesday and Beyond...A ridge will develop and sit over the area
bringing a warm dry airmass over the central US and minimal
opportunities for rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Local radar display over the last hour shows the development of
isolated convection across Garfield and Wheeler counties.
Mostly clear skies prevail, except for a swath of diurnally
driven clouds and aforementioned convection in the vicinity of a
boundary that lies roughly w-e across the central Sandhills and
across north central NEB. There are two areas of concern for
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. First, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along said
boundary this afternoon. Any TSRA should then move southward.
Second, additional development is expected upstream to our west
that could move into the local forecast area, albeit there is
lower confidence associated with it. Late tonight into tomorrow
morning, the threat for thunderstorms will be confined more over
north central NEB than western NEB. Outside of impacts from
showers/thunderstorms, generally VFR conditions should prevail.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...ET

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
325 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-032030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
325 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 /225 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and tonight across most of western Nebraska,
mainly along and south of a line from Lisco to Ellsworth to
Brownlee to Taylor. Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds into the evening hours.

A marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms exist
elsewhere.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

There is a marginal risk for severe storms across the entire
outlook area Monday afternoon and Monday night. A few storms will
be strong and approach severe levels, with damaging wind and
large hail possible.

A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms exists on Tuesday as
well, roughly east of a line from Wauneta to Eli. While storms
are not expected to be as numerous as Tuesday, strong to severe
storms are possible.

Dry and hot conditions are expected to move into the area by mid
week, lasting until Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening south
of a line from O'Neill to Valentine.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

ET

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
443 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEZ025-037-022230-
Thomas NE-Logan NE-
443 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LOGAN...SOUTHWESTERN
BLAINE AND SOUTHEASTERN THOMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 443 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Halsey, or 19 miles northeast of Stapleton. This storm
was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is occurring in this storm
also.

Locations impacted include...
Brown Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4157 10048 4177 10051 4178 10027 4175 10027
      4173 10025 4156 10026
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 327DEG 2KT 4172 10034

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
348 PM MDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEZ024-022230-
Hooker NE-
348 PM MDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CHERRY AND NORTHEASTERN
HOOKER COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

At 347 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Mullen, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mullen, Hecla and Highway 97 crossing the Dismal River.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 170 and 189.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 53 and 69.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4209 10108 4201 10086 4180 10096 4198 10136
      4209 10130
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 292DEG 12KT 4202 10126

ET

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
448 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEZ027-028-038-022230-
Loup NE-Custer NE-Garfield NE-
448 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LOUP...WESTERN
GARFIELD...NORTHEASTERN CUSTER AND SOUTHEASTERN BLAINE COUNTIES UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

At 448 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area to 7
miles east of Victoria Springs State Recreation Area. Movement was
east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is also occurring.

Locations impacted include...
Burwell, Taylor, Sargent, Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area,
Lillian, Milburn, Round Valley, Walworth, Virginia Smith Dam, Kent
Diversion Dam State Wildlife Management Area, Homestead Knolls
Campground, Nunda Shoal Campground, Deverre, Divide Hill, Valley View
Flat Campground and Gates.

This includes Highway 183 between mile markers 116 and 131.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 9959 4174 9976 4174 9969 4177 9968
      4202 9900 4191 9892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 289DEG 11KT 4184 9928 4165 9962

CDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
452 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HAIL             10 NE MULLEN            42.14N 100.90W
07/02/2017  M1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

SJACOBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
403 PM MDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEZ004-022245-
Sheridan NE-
403 PM MDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 403 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles north of Ellsworth, or 29 miles northeast of Alliance, moving
east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Argo Hill.

This includes Highway 250 between mile markers 13 and 17.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4222 10244 4235 10242 4234 10214 4216 10221
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 285DEG 8KT 4228 10236

ET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
512 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     HAIL             TAYLOR                  41.77N 99.38W
07/02/2017  E1.25 INCH       LOUP               NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JGOMEZ