Special Weather Statement, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
734 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

.AVIATION...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to affect
all terminals again today before diminishing after sunset. Gusty
winds, lightning, and MVFR to IFR visibilities and/or ceilings are
possible with any activity. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL/

SYNOPSIS...

TUTT low north of Hispaniola will continue to move west. An upper
level ridge builds from the east and holds through early in the
weekend. Another tropical wave is forecast to move across the
eastern Caribbean by late Sunday/Monday. Moist southerly flow will
continue today with afternoon convection expected over and to the
north of the mountain ranges of the islands. Moderate east trades
will return later on Thursday with a northeast component by Friday
and Saturday.

SHORT TERM...

Abundant tropical moisture and trof aloft will aid in the
development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms today. Although
not as heavy and widespread convection is expected as previous
days, due to already saturated soils and the potential for
mudslides, any additional thunderstorm activity over the mountain
ranges will quickly result in flooding and possible rapid rises
on creeks and small streams. Therefore, a flash flood watch
continues in effect through at least 8 PM AST tonight. As upper
ridge builds aloft, moisture content will erode, but the
available moisture will be enough to result in isolated to
scattered convection over the western interior-northwest portions
of PR on Thursday. As the ridge moves to the west of the
area later on Friday and Saturday, a northeast steering wind flow
will shift the focus of convection over the southwest quadrant of
the island, but a drier air mass should limit the extent and
timing of the shower activity. Streamers are expected to form each
day downwind of the USVI, resulting in brief periods of rainfall
over the western portions of the islands into the coastal waters.
Also, as trade winds return after Thursday, expect typical trade
wind shower pattern over the islands and the eastern portions of
PR during the overnight/early morning hours.

LONG TERM...

A tropical wave is forecast to move across the eastern Caribbean
during the medium range, winds shift from the southeast and trof
pattern across the western Atlantic could provide good divergence
aloft, therefore, showers and thunderstorm activity should start
to increase once again across the northwest quadrant of PR and
over the San Juan metro area on Sunday afternoon. A return to a
wetter pattern, and with more unstable conditions, is forecast
from Monday through Wednesday with a drying trend by the second
part of the week.

&&

MARINE...

Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory
criteria through the forecast period. A tropical wave will
increase shower and thunderstorm activity late this weekend into
early next week. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to
continue across the northern beaches of PR and across some beaches
of eastern St. Croix through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  80  86  80 /  70  20  60  20
STT  83  82  82  81 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Central Interior-
     Culebra-Eastern Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-North
     Central-Northeast-Northwest-Ponce and Vicinity-San Juan and
     Vicinity-Southeast-Southwest-Vieques-Western Interior.

VI...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for St Croix-
     St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

AM...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Coastal Waters OF
     Southwestern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
     Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
     Southern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern
     USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99

Perspectivas sobre condiciones peligrosas del tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
Emitido por Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia Miami FL
709 AM AST miercoles 11 de octubre de 2017

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-121115-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-
Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Aguas cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe-
709 AM AST miercoles 11 de octubre de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y Esta Noche

.Tronadas...Tronadas nuevamente se desarrollaran esta tarde a
medida que una onda tropical continue afectando el patron de tiempo
a traves de la region. Rayos frequentes, fuertes lluvias, y vientos
en rafagas seran todos posibles con cualquier tronada que se
desarrolle.

.Inundaciones...Fuertes lluvias seran posibles esta tarde a traves
de suelos ya saturados. Deslizamientos e inundaciones repentinas
seran posibles hoy. Fuertes lluvias podrian resultar en inundaciones
urbanas y de riachuelos.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas a lo largo de la costa norte de Puerto Rico.

.Dias Dos a Siete...jueves a martes

La actividad disminura lentamente jueves hasta el sabado a medida
que una onda tropical se mueva hacia el oeste. Aguaceros y tronadas
que se desarrollen seran capaces de inundaciones y deslizamientos.
Otra aumento en la actividad de tronadas ocurrira el domingo y
continuara durante el dia el lunes.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones,
corrientes marinas, y otras condiciones peligrosas al Servicio
Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-121115-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe-
709 AM AST miercoles 11 de octubre de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones del tiempo peligrosas es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y Esta Noche

.Tronadas...Tronadas se desarrollaran nuevamente esta tarde a medida
que una onda tropical continue afectando las condiciones de tiempo a
traves de la region. Rayos frequentes, fuertes lluvias, y vientos en
rafagas seran todos posibles con cualquier tronda que se desarrolle.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para porciones del este de Santa Cruz.

.Dias Dos a Siete...jueves a martes

La actividad disminura lentamente jueves hasta el sabado a medida
que una onda tropical se mueva hacia el oeste. Aguaceros y tronadas
que se desarrollen seran capaces de inundaciones y deslizamientos.
Otra aumento en la actividad de tronadas ocurrira el domingo y
continuara durante el dia el lunes.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones,
corrientes marinas y otras condiciones peligrosas al Servicio
Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
258 PM AST WED OCT 11 2017

PRZ006-111930-
Central Interior-
258 PM AST WED OCT 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT VILLALBA AND COAMO
MUNICIPALITIES...

At 256 PM AST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Los Llanos, or
near Coamo. the storms are moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Coamo, Villalba and Los Llanos.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Although this event is expected to be short lived, if conditions
worsen, a winter weather advisory may become necessary. Please
monitor local media outlets and the national weather service for
further statements.

LAT...LON 1816 6633 1806 6631 1803 6633 1805 6641
      1808 6642 1811 6652 1816 6650
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 000DEG 0KT 1811 6641

MSL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
302 PM AST WED OCT 11 2017

PRZ007-009-111930-
Western Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-
302 PM AST WED OCT 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN GUAYANILLA...
ADJUNTAS...NORTHEASTERN YAUCO AND PENUELAS MUNICIPALITIES...

At 301 PM AST, strong thunderstorms were located over Adjuntas. the
storm is moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Adjuntas, Penuelas, Guayanilla, Santo Domingo, Tallaboa Alta and
Magas Arriba.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 1821 6670 1805 6669 1801 6679 1822 6681
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 000DEG 0KT 1817 6674

MSL