Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Jackson, KY

675 
WWUS53 KJKL 272326
SVSJKL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
726 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

KYC063-272336-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-170527T2330Z/
Elliott KY-
726 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ELLIOTT COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
east central Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3817 8298 3817 8295 3818 8292 3811 8289
      3809 8293 3805 8295 3805 8297 3813 8310
      3820 8306 3818 8305 3820 8304 3820 8302
      3821 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 296DEG 18KT 3813 8287 

$$

AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
429 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 429 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

The latest surface map features a stalled frontal boundary aligned
from near the Ohio River back towards Oklahoma. Aloft, a
positively tilted trough, stemming from an upper level low
spiraling across Manitoba, is positioned from the northern Plains
down across the Four Corners region. A few short wave troughs are
traversing the more zonal flow in place along and east of the
Mississippi River.

Convection has fired up along the frontal zone to our north, as
well along some leftover outflow across central Kentucky. A short
wave trough is also moving through the eastern half of TN/KY,
helping to weaken the cap, that had held back convection through
the morning hours. Deeper and more organized convection has also
fired up back towards southern Missouri, where very prominent
instability exists.

The models have been very erratic with convective initiation and
the evolution of it over the next 24 hours. As such, the forecast
is lower confidence through Sunday.

Through this evening...scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop and move off to the east
and northeast. A few of these have already reached severe limits,
along with locally heavy rainfall with some cells training in
places. An overall diminishment is expected after 01 or 02z.
Later tonight, the higher resolution short term model guidance
suggests less of a widespread wind damage threat across eastern
Kentucky, as most of the CAMs are taking organized convection well
to our southwest. This seems reasonable based on the good Theta-E
gradient set up across southeast MO and western KY/TN, where the
better instability bubble exists. There may still be some outflow
generated convection into our area on the eastern flank of this
complex, so have broad-brushed a 50 POP across the area.

Most of the CAMS suggest very little redevelopment into Sunday
afternoon in the wake of the complex; however, if we do not see
much affect from the outflow, then the atmosphere may recharge for
the afternoon. The one issue will be forcing, as upper level
heights look mainly neutral, and the surface front will still be
located to our northwest. As such, have only included chance POPs
for the afternoon, but instability will be ample once again, so
anything that does go could approach severe limits.

The front will approach from the northwest Sunday night, bringing
another round of showers and thunderstorms. The severe potential
will likely be diminishing with the loss of instability, but heavy
rain will still be a concern.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

Precipitation will be exiting during the day Monday as a shortwave
moves east of the region along with a surface cold front, allowing
drier air to usher in behind. A secondary cold front is projected to
develop just west of our CWA during the day Tuesday, remaining
nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. A longwave trough axis
will also begin move through the state during this time. As such,
models are not in good agreement with the mesoscale features,
specifically the location and timing of precip developing with this
system. Went ahead and kept isolated POPs in for Tuesday afternoon
as daytime heating should help kick off some convection ahead of
this frontal feature. Pops will then increase across the SE into the
day Wednesday as the front finally starts shifting eastward across
the state. Did leave out thunder late Tuesday night as latest GFS20
forecast soundings were showing a hefty llvl inversion in place that
will inhibit instability. Showers and thunderstorms that develop
during the day Wednesday will taper off through the evening as the
frontal boundary passes through and a drier airmass moves in once
more.

High pressure and dry weather will remain in place through Thursday.
By Thursday night/Friday, a stationary boundary will likely set up
just south of the state, interacting with a potential upper level
shortwave that will move through the region during this time.
Although models are overall not in very good agreement about the
timing and placement of the mesoscale features, they do generally
agree that this will bring the return of shower and thunderstorm
chances to the state Thursday night into Friday, lingering through
the end of the forecast period Saturday as the boundary to our south
remains in place. Unfortunately the GFS and ECMWF are actually not
in good agreement about this feature during this time, though both
do produce the above mentioned precip, so stuck close to the blend
for this time period.

Overall there are only minor variations in the afternoon temps
during the extended portion of the forecast, with high temps
expected to range from the mid/upper 70s to near 80. Overnight lows
will generally be in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

MVFR stratocu will gradually mix out over the next hour or so.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will affect the
area through 01z, before diminishing in coverage. Some of the
storms may approach severe limits with winds of 40 to 50 kts
potentially and temporary IFR or worse conditions. Given the
isolated nature of these, have not included a mention in the TAFs.
The next concern will be the potential of a larger complex
thunderstorms affecting eastern Kentucky generally between 06 and
12z. The models have trended a bit farther southwest with the
brunt of this complex. For now, have carried a period of showers
and thunderstorms, with rain showers likely lingering into the
mid- morning hours behind the main line of storms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
432 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

KYZ050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-281100-
Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-Jackson-
Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-
Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-
Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling,
Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton,
Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside,
Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin,
Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland,
Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton,
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson,
Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden,
Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville,
and South Williamson
432 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be likely into this evening, with another round
of scattered thunderstorms expected late tonight into Sunday
morning. Thunderstorms may become severe, with large hail and damaging
winds being the main threats. In addition, storms that track over
the same areas repeatedly may lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are expected during the day Sunday. Severe storms
are possible with damaging winds and large hail being the main
threats. In addition, storms that track over the same areas
repeatedly may lead to flash flooding.

Thunderstorms are also possible from Sunday night into the day
Monday, and again on Tuesday, Wednesday, and from Friday through
Saturday. Best chances will be during the afternoon and early
evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report any instances of severe weather or flooding this
evening through Sunday.

KYZ044-281100-
Fleming-
Including the city of Flemingsburg
432 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be likely into this evening, with another round
of scattered thunderstorms expected late tonight into Sunday
morning. Thunderstorms may become severe, with large hail and
damaging winds being the main threat. In addition, storms that
track over the same areas repeatedly may lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are expected during the day Sunday. Severe storms
are possible with damaging winds and large hail being the main
threats. In addition, storms that track over the same areas
repeatedly may lead to flash flooding.

Thunderstorms are also possible from Sunday night into the day
Monday, and again on Tuesday, Wednesday, and from Friday through
Saturday. Best chances will be during the afternoon and early
evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening and
again on Sunday.

JMW/GEOGERIAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
625 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             BALDROCK                36.99N 84.28W
05/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       LAUREL             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TBREWER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
635 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

KYZ068-079-080-272300-
Rockcastle-Laurel-Pulaski-
635 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL LAUREL...NORTHERN
PULASKI AND SOUTHWESTERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES...

At 635 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Science Hill,
or 10 miles north of Somerset, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Science Hill, Wellhope, Sand Hill, Bobtown, Billows, Bandy, Pongo,
Woodstock, Shopville, Wabp, Bloss, Hansford, Dabney, Valley Oak,
Willailla, Bromo, Luner, Hogue, Pine Hill and Level Green.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3719 8479 3730 8463 3735 8424 3708 8424
      3717 8480
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 270DEG 28KT 3722 8466

JMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
639 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

KYZ113-115-118-120-272315-
Perry-Pike-Knott-Letcher-
639 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LETCHER...SOUTHEASTERN
PERRY...SOUTHEASTERN KNOTT AND SOUTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTIES...

At 639 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Ermine, or
over Whitesburg, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Whitesburg, Letcher, Jenkins, Fleming-Neon, Blackey, Winters, Horn,
Oscaloosa, Van, Colly, Isom, Premium, Beefhide, Cromona, Trailer,
Payne Gap, Colson, Sergent, Lester and Democrat.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3702 8294 3700 8299 3709 8315 3732 8275
      3730 8272 3729 8273 3729 8270 3733 8266
      3723 8250 3715 8263 3712 8272 3705 8272
      3701 8278 3701 8283 3698 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 287DEG 27KT 3711 8280

JMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
640 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             KEAVY                   37.00N 84.17W
05/27/2017  E0.88 INCH       LAUREL             KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

TBREWER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
650 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

KYZ079-080-085-272315-
Whitley-Laurel-Pulaski-
650 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN LAUREL...
SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI AND NORTHWESTERN WHITLEY COUNTIES...

At 650 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Mount Victory,
or 12 miles southeast of Somerset, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Holly Bay Rec. Area, Barton, Grove, Huxley, Baldrock, Mount Victory,
Rockcastle Springs, Bunch, Hightop, Keavy, Vox, Rye and Corbin.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3702 8450 3714 8416 3692 8411 3692 8431
      3693 8431 3694 8430 3694 8436 3696 8437
      3695 8438 3695 8442 3692 8446 3692 8449
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 258DEG 20KT 3697 8442

JMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
659 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

KYZ086-087-272330-
Knox-Bell-
659 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BELL AND KNOX
COUNTIES...

At 659 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Rossland, or 7
miles northwest of Barbourville, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Barbourville, Cannon, Artemus, Garrich, Emmanuel, Swan Lake, Hubbs,
Moore Hill, Ingram, Barnyard, Hinkle, Rossland, Jarvis, Girdler,
Heidrick, Baileys Switch, Fourmile, Indian Creek, Avis and Dishman
Springs.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3689 8407 3690 8408 3693 8408 3695 8409
      3698 8407 3698 8404 3699 8404 3698 8396
      3699 8394 3689 8361 3670 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 300DEG 23KT 3692 8399

JMW