Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Jackson, KY

311 
WWUS53 KJKL 272117
SVSJKL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
517 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

KYC065-109-129-272127-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-170527T2200Z/
Estill KY-Jackson KY-Lee KY-
517 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ESTILL...NORTHEASTERN
JACKSON AND SOUTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
southeastern and east central Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3762 8373 3750 8385 3752 8387 3751 8389
      3747 8388 3744 8391 3766 8410 3768 8410
      3770 8409 3776 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 308DEG 12KT 3762 8392 

$$

AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
429 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 429 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

The latest surface map features a stalled frontal boundary aligned
from near the Ohio River back towards Oklahoma. Aloft, a
positively tilted trough, stemming from an upper level low
spiraling across Manitoba, is positioned from the northern Plains
down across the Four Corners region. A few short wave troughs are
traversing the more zonal flow in place along and east of the
Mississippi River.

Convection has fired up along the frontal zone to our north, as
well along some leftover outflow across central Kentucky. A short
wave trough is also moving through the eastern half of TN/KY,
helping to weaken the cap, that had held back convection through
the morning hours. Deeper and more organized convection has also
fired up back towards southern Missouri, where very prominent
instability exists.

The models have been very erratic with convective initiation and
the evolution of it over the next 24 hours. As such, the forecast
is lower confidence through Sunday.

Through this evening...scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop and move off to the east
and northeast. A few of these have already reached severe limits,
along with locally heavy rainfall with some cells training in
places. An overall diminishment is expected after 01 or 02z.
Later tonight, the higher resolution short term model guidance
suggests less of a widespread wind damage threat across eastern
Kentucky, as most of the CAMs are taking organized convection well
to our southwest. This seems reasonable based on the good Theta-E
gradient set up across southeast MO and western KY/TN, where the
better instability bubble exists. There may still be some outflow
generated convection into our area on the eastern flank of this
complex, so have broad-brushed a 50 POP across the area.

Most of the CAMS suggest very little redevelopment into Sunday
afternoon in the wake of the complex; however, if we do not see
much affect from the outflow, then the atmosphere may recharge for
the afternoon. The one issue will be forcing, as upper level
heights look mainly neutral, and the surface front will still be
located to our northwest. As such, have only included chance POPs
for the afternoon, but instability will be ample once again, so
anything that does go could approach severe limits.

The front will approach from the northwest Sunday night, bringing
another round of showers and thunderstorms. The severe potential
will likely be diminishing with the loss of instability, but heavy
rain will still be a concern.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

Precipitation will be exiting during the day Monday as a shortwave
moves east of the region along with a surface cold front, allowing
drier air to usher in behind. A secondary cold front is projected to
develop just west of our CWA during the day Tuesday, remaining
nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. A longwave trough axis
will also begin move through the state during this time. As such,
models are not in good agreement with the mesoscale features,
specifically the location and timing of precip developing with this
system. Went ahead and kept isolated POPs in for Tuesday afternoon
as daytime heating should help kick off some convection ahead of
this frontal feature. Pops will then increase across the SE into the
day Wednesday as the front finally starts shifting eastward across
the state. Did leave out thunder late Tuesday night as latest GFS20
forecast soundings were showing a hefty llvl inversion in place that
will inhibit instability. Showers and thunderstorms that develop
during the day Wednesday will taper off through the evening as the
frontal boundary passes through and a drier airmass moves in once
more.

High pressure and dry weather will remain in place through Thursday.
By Thursday night/Friday, a stationary boundary will likely set up
just south of the state, interacting with a potential upper level
shortwave that will move through the region during this time.
Although models are overall not in very good agreement about the
timing and placement of the mesoscale features, they do generally
agree that this will bring the return of shower and thunderstorm
chances to the state Thursday night into Friday, lingering through
the end of the forecast period Saturday as the boundary to our south
remains in place. Unfortunately the GFS and ECMWF are actually not
in good agreement about this feature during this time, though both
do produce the above mentioned precip, so stuck close to the blend
for this time period.

Overall there are only minor variations in the afternoon temps
during the extended portion of the forecast, with high temps
expected to range from the mid/upper 70s to near 80. Overnight lows
will generally be in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

MVFR stratocu will gradually mix out over the next hour or so.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will affect the
area through 01z, before diminishing in coverage. Some of the
storms may approach severe limits with winds of 40 to 50 kts
potentially and temporary IFR or worse conditions. Given the
isolated nature of these, have not included a mention in the TAFs.
The next concern will be the potential of a larger complex
thunderstorms affecting eastern Kentucky generally between 06 and
12z. The models have trended a bit farther southwest with the
brunt of this complex. For now, have carried a period of showers
and thunderstorms, with rain showers likely lingering into the
mid- morning hours behind the main line of storms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
432 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

KYZ050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-281100-
Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-Jackson-
Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-
Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-
Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling,
Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton,
Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside,
Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin,
Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland,
Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton,
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson,
Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden,
Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville,
and South Williamson
432 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be likely into this evening, with another round
of scattered thunderstorms expected late tonight into Sunday
morning. Thunderstorms may become severe, with large hail and damaging
winds being the main threats. In addition, storms that track over
the same areas repeatedly may lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are expected during the day Sunday. Severe storms
are possible with damaging winds and large hail being the main
threats. In addition, storms that track over the same areas
repeatedly may lead to flash flooding.

Thunderstorms are also possible from Sunday night into the day
Monday, and again on Tuesday, Wednesday, and from Friday through
Saturday. Best chances will be during the afternoon and early
evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report any instances of severe weather or flooding this
evening through Sunday.

KYZ044-281100-
Fleming-
Including the city of Flemingsburg
432 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be likely into this evening, with another round
of scattered thunderstorms expected late tonight into Sunday
morning. Thunderstorms may become severe, with large hail and
damaging winds being the main threat. In addition, storms that
track over the same areas repeatedly may lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are expected during the day Sunday. Severe storms
are possible with damaging winds and large hail being the main
threats. In addition, storms that track over the same areas
repeatedly may lead to flash flooding.

Thunderstorms are also possible from Sunday night into the day
Monday, and again on Tuesday, Wednesday, and from Friday through
Saturday. Best chances will be during the afternoon and early
evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening and
again on Sunday.

JMW/GEOGERIAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

KYZ050-058>060-106-108-272100-
Montgomery-Menifee-Estill-Morgan-Powell-Wolfe-
400 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT POWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN MORGAN...NORTH CENTRAL ESTILL...MENIFEE AND
NORTHWESTERN WOLFE COUNTIES...

At 359 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Clay City, or
over Stanton, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stanton, Frenchburg, Henry, Jeffersonville, Clay City, Wellington,
Campsites in the Indian Creek area of the Daniel Boone National
Forrest, Zag, Bowen, Rexville, Cornwell, Kimbrell, Rothwell, Pekin,
Omer, Fagan, Virden, Panama, Vaughns Mill and Hardwick.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3783 8327 3774 8397 3786 8401 3792 8399
      3802 8362 3801 8361 3801 8358 3803 8357
      3805 8349 3805 8346 3802 8348 3803 8345
      3805 8343 3804 8340 3807 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 254DEG 31KT 3785 8391

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
416 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     HAIL             CLAY CITY               37.86N 83.93W
05/27/2017  M0.88 INCH       POWELL             KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

DSHALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
424 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             CLAY CITY               37.86N 83.93W
05/27/2017  M1.00 INCH       POWELL             KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

DSHALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
438 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     LIGHTNING        CLAY CITY               37.86N 83.93W
05/27/2017                   POWELL             KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            LIGHTNING STRUCK A TREE DROPPING THE TREE ON TOP OF A
            HOME AT THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 11 AND HWY 15 IN CLAY
            CITY.

&&

TBREWER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
441 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

KYZ106-108-111-112-272115-
Lee-Breathitt-Morgan-Wolfe-
441 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN...
NORTHWESTERN BREATHITT...NORTHEASTERN LEE AND WOLFE COUNTIES...

At 441 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Fincastle, or
near Beattyville, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Campton, Simpson, Fincastle, Torrent, Burkhart, Lexie, Rexville,
Pence, Sellars, Rock Lick, Vancleve, Panama, Moct, Wilhurst, Vada,
Bays, High Falls, Lane, Sewell and Taulbee.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3769 8325 3768 8326 3767 8324 3760 8322
      3761 8365 3770 8371 3785 8330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 255DEG 15KT 3767 8364

JMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
442 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

KYZ058-069-111-272100-
Jackson-Lee-Estill-
442 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ESTILL...
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND WEST CENTRAL LEE COUNTIES...

At 441 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Locust Branch,
or 10 miles southwest of Irvine, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Evelyn, Kerby Knob, Blackburn, Clover Bottom, Hisel, Jinks, Yellow
Rock, Wagersville, Brazil, Alcorn, Shirley, Leighton, Drip Rock,
Sandgap, Station Camp, Locust Branch, Blanton Flats, Willow Shoals,
Alumbaugh and Noland.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3756 8416 3757 8409 3761 8412 3765 8413
      3766 8411 3767 8405 3759 8371 3746 8415
      3754 8419
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 247DEG 32KT 3758 8410

AR