Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
649 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Aftn convection has pushed se of HBG and VFR conds were observed
at 23Z areawide. An outflow boundary wl drop south and result in
TSRA activity with gusty north winds by 01Z GLH-GWO. A cold front
wl drop into the HWY 82 corridor after 06Z and result in
additional SHRA/TSRA chances. Outside of TSRA activity, VFR conds
wl prevail until 09Z when MVFR cigs are anticipated then dropping
to IFR 11-14Z. Cigs are expected to slowly improve Saturday
morning. TSRA activity wl become focused across the south by aftn
along the cold front. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Saturday:

Although band of tropical showers continues to slowly pull away
to the east, deep moisture will remain over the area at least one
more day as PWs of 2 to 2.25 inches remain common. A cold front
moving into north AR at the moment has sparked a band of storms in
that vicinity. CAM models are showing this band of storms move
rapidly south during the late afternoon and evening and look to
pose at least a limited threat of severe given the wind fields in
place. Still plan to let the flash flood watch expire as the
precipitation that moves through tonight will have better speed
lessening the rainfall duration at any one spot.

The front will work its way southward through the forecast area
Saturday. With deepest moisture and most instability in the south,
best POPs will exist there. At this point, the drier air does not
look to arrive until Saturday night from the north. /26/

Saturday night through next Friday morning:

After a much wet and stormy period due to Tropical Storm Cindy
bringing in such an anomalous surge of PWs these past few days,
expect a cold front to finally come through near the start of the
period and bring in a much needed drying across the area.

As a large trough deepens over the northern Great Lakes, expect
the remnants of Tropical Depression Cindy to quickly eject
northeast and become phased with the upper level flow. This will
help drive a strong upper jet over the northern Great Lakes and
help the trough to amplify into the mid-upper Mississippi Valley.
In turn, strong surface ridging near 1025mb to begin to develop
in the north- central Great Plains and much drier air down will
move down towards our area. Saturday night into Sunday this cold
front will just be moving through the area, while best chance for
rain & storms to remain over the southern half of the area, south
of the I-20 corridor. The cold front should be in the Highway 84
corridor by Saturday evening and near there to near the Gulf Coast
by daybreak. Before the front moves through, PWs will remain
anomalously high, in the 2 to 2.5 inch range and 850mb Theta-E
values near 330-340K. There won't be strong forcing but could not
rule out some locally heavy downpours due to high moisture and a
few scattered thunderstorms due to some lingering instability.
These lingering rain & storms & clouds will keep temperatures
still below normal in the low-mid 80s Sunday.

Expect these thunderstorms and rain chances to finally move out
by Sunday night into Monday as much drier air, with 850mb Theta-E
values near 300K and PWs between three quarters of an inch to an
inch. This in addition with strong surface ridging, near
1020-1025mb, will help bring in a very nice and much needed drier
pattern to the start of the week. There could be some lingering
light rain showers in the Highway 84 corridor on Monday but
expect the driest air to move in Monday night into Tuesday. As the
anomalously strong surface ridging and low PWs (both near record
high & low values, respectively, per NAEFS/GEFS) moves in, expect
a nice, warm and dry pattern through mid-week. Due to such strong
surface high and dry air (dewpoints even into the upper 50s),
expect lows Sunday & Monday night to fall into the low-mid 60s
(possibly into the upper 50s in spots), which is some 5-10 degrees
below normal. If we do radiate that well, we could reach near the
top 5 coolest for record lows. Lows may be a touch warmer on
Tuesday morning due to surface high building east through the
Appalachians and some lingering pressure gradient & light winds in
the area. As the surface high builds off the Atlantic seaboard,
return flow and moisture will build back in by mid-late week
(Wednesday to Thursday next week). Expect more humid conditions
and diurnal thunderstorm chances to increase by late week. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  84  69  83 /  51  68  42  27
Meridian      74  85  69  83 /  42  76  50  26
Vicksburg     75  85  69  84 /  51  66  35  31
Hattiesburg   75  87  72  83 /  28  85  55  56
Natchez       74  84  71  82 /  41  79  40  49
Greenville    73  83  66  83 /  64  48  16   8
Greenwood     72  83  66  84 /  64  48  16   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

22/DC/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
242 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>059-241945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-
Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-
Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-
Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-
Clarke-Jefferson-
242 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Another band of showers and thunderstorms will move into the
region from the northwest during the evening. Isolated storms may
become severe with damaging winds being the main threat. Heavy
downpours may also pose a threat for localized flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

LAZ024-026-MSZ060>066-072>074-241945-
Catahoula-Concordia-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
242 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

26

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/tropical
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
735 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

MSZ019-025-240130-
Leflore MS-Sunflower MS-
735 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

...A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SUNFLOWER AND LEFLORE
COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM CDT...

At 734 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a line of showers
producing gusty winds extending from near Dermott to Shaw to near
Sumner. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this line.

Locations impacted include...
Greenwood, Indianola, Moorhead, Itta Bena, Sunflower, Inverness,
Sidon, Minter City, Quito, Money, Swiftown, Holly Ridge, Sunnyside,
Blaine, Schlater, Morgan City and Doddsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3381 9045 3381 9018 3376 9019 3372 9031
      3372 9014 3346 9010 3342 9017 3333 9018
      3337 9032 3331 9029 3331 9035 3324 9037
      3326 9045 3333 9045 3333 9056 3327 9056
      3327 9076 3353 9076 3374 9046 3394 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 308DEG 32KT 3404 9035 3360 9080 3348 9139

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
801 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FLOOD            9 N PETAL               31.47N 89.23W
06/23/2017                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            N WPA RD FLOODED NEAR COOK RD.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
802 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FLOOD            6 SSE ELLISVILLE        31.52N 89.16W
06/23/2017                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING ALONG IRONGATE RD.

&&

DL

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