Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
643 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion: Convection, associated with a strong storm
system approaching from the west, will continue to impede upon
the area overnight from west to east. Some of that convection
could be severe, with severe storms possible across the remainder
of the area through the overnight hours tonight into Monday
morning as the storm system pushes east through the region.
Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible
with severe storms from this evening into Monday morning. Winds
today will become more south southeasterly between 15-20 knots,
with higher gusts, for tonight. /17/

&&

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Monday: Latest satellite imagery
showed an Intense Storm System approaching from the Southern
Plains region. Strong to Severe convection was taken place across
the ArkLaTex into our western areas. A solid line of Severe Storms
extended across Western Louisiana. A surge of low level moisture,
instability, and strong shear was moving in from the southwest.
Upstream dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s was observed
across the central and southern Louisiana which was associated
with a northward moving warm frontal boundary.

For tonight into early Monday the combination of moist dewpoints,
strong lapse rates, strong deep layer shear, and good instability
will provide severe weather across the ArkLaMiss for this afternoon
through early Monday. Cam models shows that an MCS will cross the
region overnight with discrete supercells developing ahead of it
with good tornado potential. SPC has a high risk of severe across
our far western parishes, along with a moderate risk for most of our
central sections with an enhanced risk in the north and east. The
primary risks will be damaging winds, tornadoes with a few strong
tornadoes, some flash flooding, and quarter to golfball sized hail.
Cam models moves the MCS out of our eastern counties by midmorning
Monday. Convection will continue through the day Monday and will end
by Monday night. Cam models also shows that we will get training of
cells as mesoscale processes comes into the play as some boundaries
get hung up during the night. Rainfall amounts will be around three
to five inches with locally higher amounts possible.

As far as temperatures are concern lows will be in the 60s and highs
on Monday will be in the middle 70s to the lower 80s./17/

Monday night through Sunday: By Monday evening the closed low and
mid level trough axis will shift farther northeast of our region
leaving zonal flow across our region. This will be brief though as
our winds aloft will begin backing to the southwest by morning
ahead of another closed low dropping over the southern plains. WAA
will gradually increase Tuesday and Tuesday night as this system
deepens and shifts east to the mid Mississippi valley by Wednesday
morning. Dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures will last
into Tuesday evening but rain chances will return after midnight
Tuesday night as a weak warm front lifts north through the area.
A cold front associated with the large low pressure system will
swing through our CWA Wednesday morning. Dry weather with a cooler
and drier airmass will be over the CWA by evening. The closed low
will slowly lift northeast Wednesday night but a large upper level
trough will linger through Thursday before shifting east Friday.
As a result dry weather and more seasonal temperatures will
continue through the end of the week. High pressure surface and
aloft will strengthen over the region Friday night through
Saturday before shifting east Sunday. This will lead to a warming
trend during the weekend. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  80  57  84 / 100  74   4   3
Meridian      66  81  56  84 /  81 100   6   3
Vicksburg     65  79  57  84 / 100  55   3   3
Hattiesburg   69  84  57  86 /  82 100   3   2
Natchez       65  79  58  83 / 100  46   2   2
Greenville    63  77  56  82 / 100  61   3   3
Greenwood     65  77  56  83 / 100  76   4   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for MSZ040>044-047>050-
     053>056-059>065-072>074.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...None.

&&

17

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
505 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

ARZ074-075-MSZ034-035-032200-
Ashley-Chicot-Washington-Humphreys-
505 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Late this Afternoon through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Late this Afternoon through Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected with significant severe weather
possible, including strong tornadoes, hail up to at least golf
ball size, and winds in excess of 70 mph.

Torrential rain associated with thunderstorms late this afternoon
through tonight will likely cause at least localized flooding
issues with total rainfall amounts ranging from 2 to 4 inches
anticipated and locally higher amounts are not out of the
question.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ018-019-032200-
Bolivar-Sunflower-
505 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Late this Afternoon through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Late this Afternoon through Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected with tornadoes, hail up to
golfball size, and damaging winds up to 70 mph all possible.

Torrential rain associated with thunderstorms late this afternoon
through tonight could cause a few localized flooding issues with
total rainfall amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches anticipated and
locally higher amounts are not out of the question.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ025>033-039-046-052-057-058-066-073-074-032200-
Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-
Oktibbeha-Noxubee-Kemper-Lauderdale-Clarke-Jasper-Jones-Lamar-
Forrest-
505 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and northeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Mainly Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight through early Monday

Severe thunderstorms are expected with tornadoes, hail up to
golfball size, and damaging winds up to 70 mph all possible.

Torrential rain associated with thunderstorms tonight into early
Monday could cause a few localized flooding issues with total
rainfall amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches anticipated and
locally higher amounts are not out of the question.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through early Monday.

LAZ007>009-016-025-MSZ040>042-047-048-053-054-059>062-032200-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Madison LA-Tensas-Issaquena-
Sharkey-Yazoo-Warren-Hinds-Claiborne-Copiah-Jefferson-Adams-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-
505 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, south central Mississippi,
southwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Late this Afternoon through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Late this Afternoon through Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected with significant severe weather
possible, including strong tornadoes, hail up to at least golf
ball size, and winds in excess of 70 mph.

Torrential rain associated with thunderstorms late this afternoon
through tonight will likely cause flooding issues with total
rainfall amounts ranging from 3 to 5 inches anticipated and
locally higher amounts are not out of the question.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

LAZ015-023-024-026-032200-
Richland-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Concordia-
505 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...High
TIMING...Late this Afternoon through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Late this Afternoon through Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected with significant severe weather
likely, including strong tornadoes, hail up to at least golf ball
size, and winds in excess of 70 mph.

Torrential rain associated with thunderstorms late this afternoon
through tonight will likely cause flooding issues with total
rainfall amounts ranging from 3 to 5 inches anticipated and
locally higher amounts are not out of the question.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ036>038-045-051-056-063>065-072-032200-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Neshoba-Smith-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-Marion-Newton-
505 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and south central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Mainly Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Mainly Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected with significant severe weather
possible, including strong tornadoes, hail up to at least golf
ball size, and winds in excess of 70 mph.

Torrential rain associated with thunderstorms through early Monday
will likely cause at least minor flooding issues with total
rainfall amounts ranging from 2 to 4 inches anticipated and
locally higher amounts are not out of the question.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible for portions of
central Mississippi, portions of south central Mississippi,
east central Mississippi, and portions of southeast
Mississippi on Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Monday, and again Tuesday night.

MSZ043-044-049-050-055-032200-
Madison MS-Leake-Rankin-Scott-Simpson-
505 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Mainly Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Mainly Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected with significant severe weather
possible, including strong tornadoes, hail up to at least golf
ball size, and winds in excess of 70 mph.

Torrential rain associated with thunderstorms tonight through
early Monday will likely cause flooding issues with total
rainfall amounts ranging from 3 to 5 inches anticipated and
locally higher amounts are not out of the question.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible for portions of
central Mississippi, portions of south central Mississippi,
east central Mississippi, and portions of southeast
Mississippi on Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through early Monday, and again Tuesday night.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
814 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE FLORA             32.48N 90.29W
04/02/2017                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWNED ON POCAHONTAS RD IN
            POCAHONTAS.

&&

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
830 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

MSZ063-064-030215-
Lawrence MS-Jefferson Davis MS-
830 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN LAWRENCE AND JEFFERSON
DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 828 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Robinwood, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Prentiss, Oak Vale, Clem, Progress, Robinwood, Society Hill, Tilton,
Arm, Melba, Carson and Bassfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so monitor local radio media for possible
warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for south central
and southeastern Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3133 9008 3134 9008 3134 9010 3148 9020
      3174 8978 3170 8975 3161 8975 3161 8974
      3159 8971 3156 8966 3145 8959 3143 8966
      3144 8982 3139 8982 3139 8985 3140 9004
      3134 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 238DEG 34KT 3145 9006

7