Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
133 AM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
Ongoing thunderstorm activity will continue to affect TAF sites
with gusty winds and periods of lower visibility and variable
ceilings. For the most part, expect MVFR to IFR conditions around
heavier thunderstorms, with MVFR conditions prevailing until
thunderstorms move east of each TAF site. There is a chance for BR
or lower ceilings to develop by early Monday morning as the rain
diminishes, but confidence in this is low. Gusty winds from the
southwest are expected through the afternoon on Monday, with
speeds dropping below 10 kts by 00Z Tuesday. Amendments may be
necessary to account for trends in thunderstorm development
through Monday morning. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MCS was moving through the central portions of the CWA which was
bringing some heavy rainfall rates and some severe weather. Some
of those rates were around 2-3+ inches per hour. So have made
some adjustments to pops and will expand the FFA to the east some
taking the heavy rainfall rates in mind. Otherwise made slight
adjustments to overnight lows. The MCS should depart the region by
7 am./17/

Prior discussion below:

showed an Intense Storm System approaching from the Southern
Plains region. Strong to Severe convection was taken place across
the ArkLaTex into our western areas. A solid line of Severe Storms
extended across Western Louisiana. A surge of low level moisture,
instability, and strong shear was moving in from the southwest.
Upstream dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s was observed
across the central and southern Louisiana which was associated
with a northward moving warm frontal boundary.

For tonight into early Monday the combination of moist dewpoints,
strong lapse rates, strong deep layer shear, and good instability
will provide severe weather across the ArkLaMiss for this afternoon
through early Monday. Cam models shows that an MCS will cross the
region overnight with discrete supercells developing ahead of it
with good tornado potential. SPC has a high risk of severe across
our far western parishes, along with a moderate risk for most of our
central sections with an enhanced risk in the north and east. The
primary risks will be damaging winds, tornadoes with a few strong
tornadoes, some flash flooding, and quarter to golfball sized hail.
Cam models moves the MCS out of our eastern counties by mid-
morning Monday. Convection will continue through the day Monday
and will end by Monday night. Cam models also shows that we will
get training of cells as mesoscale processes comes into the play
as some boundaries get hung up during the night. Rainfall amounts
will be around three to five inches with locally higher amounts
possible.

As far as temperatures are concern lows will be in the 60s and highs
on Monday will be in the middle 70s to the lower 80s./17/

Monday night through Sunday: By Monday evening the closed low and
mid level trough axis will shift farther northeast of our region
leaving zonal flow across our region. This will be brief though as
our winds aloft will begin backing to the southwest by morning
ahead of another closed low dropping over the southern plains. WAA
will gradually increase Tuesday and Tuesday night as this system
deepens and shifts east to the mid Mississippi valley by Wednesday
morning. Dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures will last
into Tuesday evening but rain chances will return after midnight
Tuesday night as a weak warm front lifts north through the area.
A cold front associated with the large low pressure system will
swing through our CWA Wednesday morning. Dry weather with a cooler
and drier airmass will be over the CWA by evening. The closed low
will slowly lift northeast Wednesday night but a large upper level
trough will linger through Thursday before shifting east Friday.
As a result dry weather and more seasonal temperatures will
continue through the end of the week. High pressure surface and
aloft will strengthen over the region Friday night through
Saturday before shifting east Sunday. This will lead to a warming
trend during the weekend. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       80  57  84  63 /  24   4   3  27
Meridian      81  56  84  61 /  42   6   3  31
Vicksburg     79  57  84  62 /  18   3   3  23
Hattiesburg   84  57  86  64 /  42   3   2  37
Natchez       79  58  83  63 /  20   2   2  28
Greenville    77  56  82  59 /  14   3   3  18
Greenwood     77  56  83  60 /  20   4   3  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ040>066-
     072>074.

LA...Flash Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ015-016-
     023>026.

AR...None.

&&

NF/17/22

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
159 AM CDT MON APR 3 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 S TERRY               32.04N 90.30W
04/03/2017  E65 MPH          COPIAH             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
200 AM CDT MON APR 3 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ENE FLOWOOD           32.34N 90.07W
04/03/2017                   RANKIN             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PARKING LOT AND CARS FLOODED AT LAUREL PARK
            APARTMENTS.

&&

TW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
223 AM CDT MON APR 3 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE CRYSTAL SPRINGS   31.98N 90.35W
04/03/2017                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN.

&&

CE