Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
651 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Showers and storms are expected today as a front crosses the region.
A few of these storms may be severe in the afternoon with damaging
winds and large hail the main threats. The best chances for severe
weather will be along and south of highway 24. Dry weather then
expected overnight through early Sunday with cooler and less humid
conditions. The chance for storms returns Sunday night through the
middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Convective trends for today remain the top concern of this forecast
package. Broad height falls enveloping the Great Lakes and surface
cold front slowly sagging south. Disparate clusters of convection
(severe at times) continuing to fire ahead of this front, driven
mainly by outflow/MCV from earlier storms. Front is not well-defined
across WI given this activity but better NW flow and cool/dry air
advection still appear across MN and northern WI. Seen some uptick
in lightning activity over the last hour or so with more favorably-
oriented line approaching GRR but still expect this activity to
slowly wane as it approaches IN/OH around sunrise. Moisture
convergence/LLJ is just not quite to the level necessary to sustain
early morning convection with increasingly diffuse convergence to
the E/SE across our area. Last few runs of HRRR (as well as most hi-
res CAMs) support this idea with convection decaying over our CWA
later this morning.

Main question is what impact this will have on our convective
chances later today, to which there is still not a clear-cut answer.
General trend in 00Z guidance is for a slightly later cold frontal
passage, potentially allowing better instability to build in our
CWA. There is certainly merit to this idea given surface front is
still well upstream and the real prominent shortwave is still in
Manitoba at press time. Parameters for at least scattered severe
weather are all there. Surface dewpoints are already near 70F and
may even climb a degree or two higher as moisture pools ahead of
front. Perhaps most disturbing is midlevel lapse rates hovering
around 7 C/km. This could yield SBCAPE of 2000+ J/kg by later today.
Wind/shear profiles are not exceptional but good enough for some
organized clusters. 0-6 km bulk shear values are around 25-30 kts
but similar values in the 0-3 km layer with 35-40kt winds at 700mb.
This morning convection is the wild card though. Hi-res depletes
this activity awfully quick given vigor of current updrafts and some
concern that composite outflow and cloud cover could disrupt/cap
instability later today. However, still think the effect of this
convection will be limited for at least our SE half given the
aformentioned factors this morning and the underlying ingredients
support a higher risk for severe weather in those SE areas this
afternoon, as reflected in the latest SWODY1. Damaging winds and
large hail will be the main threats with best guess on timing
currently 17-22Z. Expect a quick end to precip around 00Z with
strong push of cool/dry air for tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Tonight into the weekend still looking very pleasant with cool N/NW
flow (at least on Saturday), dry air advection, and general
subsidence on upwind side of departing trough. 850mb temps drop into
the single digits on Sat, yielding highs in the mid to upper 70s
under mostly sunny conditions. Surface dewpoints will crash to
around 50F and will feel spectacular by July standards (and recent
conditions). Overnight lows similarly refreshing, in the mid to
upper 50s. Flow does begin to back a bit on Sunday with some late
day low-level theta-e advection. Typically overzealous GFS kicks out
fairly widespread QPF but suspect any showers will be very isolated.
Forcing is highly questionable with a subtle, convectively-enhanced
shortwave possibly diving into our region Sunday night. Some modest
WAA but system-relative isentropic ascent and moisture advection are
weak with lack of any pronounced LLJ. Enough moisture/instability to
warrant a slight chance PoP late in the day but expect limited
coverage and no severe threat.

Mid/upper level flow becomes more zonal heading into the first half
of next week, allowing warm/humid conditions to sweep back into the
Ohio Valley with periodic showers and storms likely. Largely
diurnally driven on Monday but better chances appear Tue/Wed as
Hudson Bay low briefly dips S/SE and tightens thermal gradient
across southern Great Lakes. Still many details to work out with
regard to exact timing and placement of best precip chances so stuck
close to concensus initialization with blanket low chance PoPs
through much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Scattered thunderstorms along outflow boundary were movg se across
nrn IN attm. Expect this activity to grdly intensify with diurnal
heating and sink s-se with apchg cdfnt, so best potential for
storms this aftn at FWA. Given expected very unstable conditions
by aftn and modest deep layer shear, a svr storm with damaging
winds and large hail is psbl but threat too low attm to include
that detail in the taf attm. Otrws, with fropa sw winds will shift
to nw this aftn with vfr conditions prevailing in its wake through
tonight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...JT

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
555 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-081000-
St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-
Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-
Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
555 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 /455 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon. Some of these storms
may be severe. The best chances for severe weather will be along and
south of highway 24. Damaging winds and large hail are the main
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There are chances for thunderstorms through much of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

INZ003-MIZ077-081000-
La Porte-Berrien-
555 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 /455 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Michigan
and northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Hazardous swimming conditions are possible along Lake Michigan
beaches late today and into tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible again later today but severe weather is
not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There are chances for thunderstorms through much of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-081000-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
555 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Conditions hazardous to small craft may be possible late today and
into tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible again later today but severe weather is
not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There are chances for thunderstorms through much of next week.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
810 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ELKHART                 41.69N 85.97W
07/07/2017                   ELKHART            IN   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE.

&&

GH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
811 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

INZ005-071245-
Elkhart-
811 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ELKHART COUNTY...

At 811 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Elkhart, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elkhart, Goshen, Dunlap, Middlebury, New Paris, Benton, Jimtown and
Waterford Mills.

This includes Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 88 and
91.

LAT...LON 4163 8565 4162 8566 4145 8581 4163 8606
      4171 8606 4175 8603
TIME...MOT...LOC 1211Z 300DEG 25KT 4168 8602

MARSILI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
813 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

INZ003-004-012-071300-
La Porte-St. Joseph-Starke-
813 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ST.
JOSEPH...NORTHEASTERN STARKE AND CENTRAL LA PORTE COUNTIES...

At 812 AM EDT/712 AM CDT/, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were
located along a line extending from near Chesterton to Valparaiso.
Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
La Porte, Westville, Knox, Walkerton, Kingsford Heights, Wanatah,
Hamlet, Koontz Lake, Hanna, Kingsbury, Thomaston, South Center,
Pinhook, Salem Heights, Fish Lake, South Wanatah, Otis, Brems, Tracy
and Stillwell.

This includes Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 38 and
44.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4165 8693 4158 8646 4148 8645 4148 8647
      4138 8647 4127 8662 4140 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1212Z 296DEG 27KT 4161 8696 4150 8703

SKIP