Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
651 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Showers and storms are expected today as a front crosses the region.
A few of these storms may be severe in the afternoon with damaging
winds and large hail the main threats. The best chances for severe
weather will be along and south of highway 24. Dry weather then
expected overnight through early Sunday with cooler and less humid
conditions. The chance for storms returns Sunday night through the
middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Convective trends for today remain the top concern of this forecast
package. Broad height falls enveloping the Great Lakes and surface
cold front slowly sagging south. Disparate clusters of convection
(severe at times) continuing to fire ahead of this front, driven
mainly by outflow/MCV from earlier storms. Front is not well-defined
across WI given this activity but better NW flow and cool/dry air
advection still appear across MN and northern WI. Seen some uptick
in lightning activity over the last hour or so with more favorably-
oriented line approaching GRR but still expect this activity to
slowly wane as it approaches IN/OH around sunrise. Moisture
convergence/LLJ is just not quite to the level necessary to sustain
early morning convection with increasingly diffuse convergence to
the E/SE across our area. Last few runs of HRRR (as well as most hi-
res CAMs) support this idea with convection decaying over our CWA
later this morning.

Main question is what impact this will have on our convective
chances later today, to which there is still not a clear-cut answer.
General trend in 00Z guidance is for a slightly later cold frontal
passage, potentially allowing better instability to build in our
CWA. There is certainly merit to this idea given surface front is
still well upstream and the real prominent shortwave is still in
Manitoba at press time. Parameters for at least scattered severe
weather are all there. Surface dewpoints are already near 70F and
may even climb a degree or two higher as moisture pools ahead of
front. Perhaps most disturbing is midlevel lapse rates hovering
around 7 C/km. This could yield SBCAPE of 2000+ J/kg by later today.
Wind/shear profiles are not exceptional but good enough for some
organized clusters. 0-6 km bulk shear values are around 25-30 kts
but similar values in the 0-3 km layer with 35-40kt winds at 700mb.
This morning convection is the wild card though. Hi-res depletes
this activity awfully quick given vigor of current updrafts and some
concern that composite outflow and cloud cover could disrupt/cap
instability later today. However, still think the effect of this
convection will be limited for at least our SE half given the
aformentioned factors this morning and the underlying ingredients
support a higher risk for severe weather in those SE areas this
afternoon, as reflected in the latest SWODY1. Damaging winds and
large hail will be the main threats with best guess on timing
currently 17-22Z. Expect a quick end to precip around 00Z with
strong push of cool/dry air for tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Tonight into the weekend still looking very pleasant with cool N/NW
flow (at least on Saturday), dry air advection, and general
subsidence on upwind side of departing trough. 850mb temps drop into
the single digits on Sat, yielding highs in the mid to upper 70s
under mostly sunny conditions. Surface dewpoints will crash to
around 50F and will feel spectacular by July standards (and recent
conditions). Overnight lows similarly refreshing, in the mid to
upper 50s. Flow does begin to back a bit on Sunday with some late
day low-level theta-e advection. Typically overzealous GFS kicks out
fairly widespread QPF but suspect any showers will be very isolated.
Forcing is highly questionable with a subtle, convectively-enhanced
shortwave possibly diving into our region Sunday night. Some modest
WAA but system-relative isentropic ascent and moisture advection are
weak with lack of any pronounced LLJ. Enough moisture/instability to
warrant a slight chance PoP late in the day but expect limited
coverage and no severe threat.

Mid/upper level flow becomes more zonal heading into the first half
of next week, allowing warm/humid conditions to sweep back into the
Ohio Valley with periodic showers and storms likely. Largely
diurnally driven on Monday but better chances appear Tue/Wed as
Hudson Bay low briefly dips S/SE and tightens thermal gradient
across southern Great Lakes. Still many details to work out with
regard to exact timing and placement of best precip chances so stuck
close to concensus initialization with blanket low chance PoPs
through much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Scattered thunderstorms along outflow boundary were movg se across
nrn IN attm. Expect this activity to grdly intensify with diurnal
heating and sink s-se with apchg cdfnt, so best potential for
storms this aftn at FWA. Given expected very unstable conditions
by aftn and modest deep layer shear, a svr storm with damaging
winds and large hail is psbl but threat too low attm to include
that detail in the taf attm. Otrws, with fropa sw winds will shift
to nw this aftn with vfr conditions prevailing in its wake through
tonight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...JT

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
555 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-081000-
St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-
Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-
Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
555 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 /455 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon. Some of these storms
may be severe. The best chances for severe weather will be along and
south of highway 24. Damaging winds and large hail are the main
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There are chances for thunderstorms through much of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

INZ003-MIZ077-081000-
La Porte-Berrien-
555 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 /455 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Michigan
and northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Hazardous swimming conditions are possible along Lake Michigan
beaches late today and into tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible again later today but severe weather is
not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There are chances for thunderstorms through much of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-081000-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
555 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Conditions hazardous to small craft may be possible late today and
into tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible again later today but severe weather is
not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There are chances for thunderstorms through much of next week.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
818 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

INZ003-004-014-071245-
La Porte-St. Joseph-Marshall-
818 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ST. JOSEPH...
NORTHERN MARSHALL AND NORTHEASTERN LA PORTE COUNTIES...

At 818 AM EDT/718 AM CDT/, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were
located along a line extending from near Gulivoire Park to near New
Buffalo. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
South Bend, Michigan City, La Porte, Bremen, Trail Creek, Gulivoire
Park, Walkerton, North Liberty, New Carlisle, Long Beach, Lakeville,
La Paz, Michiana Shores, Michiana, Teegarden, Fish Lake, Crumstown,
Stillwell, Woodland and Linkville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 47 and 57.
 Interstate 94 in Indiana between mile markers 39 and 45.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4178 8683 4177 8680 4176 8682 4176 8675
      4163 8619 4142 8606 4133 8606 4148 8655
      4170 8686
TIME...MOT...LOC 1218Z 318DEG 33KT 4157 8617 4173 8676

MARSILI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
835 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 AM     LIGHTNING        ELKHART                 41.69N 85.97W
07/07/2017                   ELKHART            IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE SPLIT IN HALF TO APPARENT LIGHTNING
            STRIKE.

&&

GH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
838 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 AM     HAIL             MICHIGAN CITY           41.71N 86.88W
07/07/2017  E0.50 INCH       LA PORTE           IN   PUBLIC

            RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
856 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

INZ004-005-MIZ077-078-071330-
St. Joseph-Elkhart-Berrien-Cass-
856 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ELKHART...
NORTHEASTERN ST. JOSEPH...SOUTHERN CASS AND SOUTHEASTERN BERRIEN
COUNTIES...

At 856 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Niles, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elkhart, Mishawaka, Niles, Georgetown, Granger, Simonton Lake,
Dunlap, Osceola, Edwardsburg, Roseland, Union, Bertrand, Indian
Village, Barron Lake, Adamsville, Juno Lake, Jimtown and Eagle Lake.

This includes Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 77 and
96.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

LAT...LON 4177 8634 4188 8623 4180 8582 4158 8598
TIME...MOT...LOC 1256Z 299DEG 31KT 4180 8622

LEWIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
922 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     HAIL             3 ENE WANATAH           41.45N 86.84W
07/07/2017  E0.75 INCH       LA PORTE           IN   PUBLIC

            FROM SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
945 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE MONOQUET           41.28N 85.85W
07/07/2017  M54 MPH          KOSCIUSKO          IN   AWOS

&&

GH