Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
236 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

A cold front will drift south through the forecast area this
evening. This will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
especially along and south of highway 30. Though we could see a
few stronger storms, severe weather is not expected. Precipitation
activity should die out after sunset. Lows will be in the 60s.
Independence day looks to be partly cloudy with highs ranging from
80 to 85 degrees. There is a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms along and south of highway 24...west of interstate
69. Severe weather is not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

Isolated showers percolating across MI have largely dissipated with
orphaned frontal boundary slowly sagging south across our CWA. Still
some capping noted on hourly forecast soundings and mesoanalysis but
continual diabatic heating and sufficient low level moisture still
expected to generate 1000-1500 J/kg of uncapped MLCAPE this
afternoon, mainly along and south of US-30. With modest low level
convergence in place, expect ISO/SCT showers and storms in our south
through the evening. Deep-layer shear values are marginal south of
the front (generally less than 25 kts) but suppose its not
impossible to see an isolated damaging wind gust given moderate
instability. Convection will likely remain pulsey with little/no
organization. Isolated showers could continue through much of the
night but expect bulk of the activity will simmer down after 01-02Z
and kept the post-06Z period dry. Overnight lows will be similar to
last night...mid 60s in south and around 60F to the north given
cooler/drier postfrontal air and less cloud cover.

Left Tue primarily dry with most 12Z guidance continuing trend of
stronger AVA/subsidence and surface high pressure over the Great
Lakes, forcing surface boundary just S/SW of our CWA. A stray shower
may clip our far southern zones but expect primarily dry conditions.
Temps and dewpoints may be a degree or two cooler but temp/moisture
advections not particularly strong and will be similar to today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

12Z guidance also continued earlier noted trend of later and more
southern track to Wednesday night's wave. 12Z deterministic GFS even
suggests most of the CWA will remain dry. Confidence in any one
scenario remains low with high degree of spread in ensemble guidance
and uncertainties with regard to convective modulation upstream.
Tried not to make drastic changes to PoP forecast but did lower them
a bit (and push them more into Thu) based on latest consensus. Heavy
rain still possible given seasonably strong CVA forcing, and ample
moisture but obviously will depend on track as to whether our
counties are impacted. Better chances look to be south of US-30 at
this point. Cold front still set to pass through on Friday but sharp
difference in GFS and 03.00Z ECMWF handling of next longwave
trough/closed low leading to high uncertainty with regard to weekend
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

A weak cold front draped across Southern Lower Michigan/far northern
Indiana will continue its southward progression through the TAF
period. Winds out of the NW at the moment will gradually veer to the
N-NE as the front passes this afternoon. Given the instability of
around 1500-2000 J/Kg present thanks to weak moisture transport and
afternoon heating, expect the front to kick of some scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the 20Z timeframe, gradually tapering
off after we lose the daytime heating around 02Z. Things look to
stay VFR for the most part, except maybe a brief downtick to MVFR
within any thunderstorms or heavier showers. Though SBN could see an
isolated shower or thunderstorm, have much lower confidence as much
of the guidance still suggests development south and east of the
area- which makes sense given the current position of the frontal
boundary. KFWA will probably see a couple of showers or storms
tonight, so have VCTS for now given the uncertainty of
timing/placement. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail later tonight
into Tuesday-with VFR conditions on tap.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MCD

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
309 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-040715-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
309 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 /209 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early
this evening, mainly across northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.
Isolated wind gusts greater than 40 mph, heavy downpours, and
lightning will be the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance for thunderstorms later Wednesday through Friday.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-040715-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
309 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance for thunderstorms later Wednesday through Friday.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

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