Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
724 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

A frontal boundary will sag south into the region tonight
bringing chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows
tonight will drop into the mid 60s. Monday and Tuesday will
feature seasonably warm temperatures and mainly dry conditions.
However, there is a low chance for a few showers and storms each
day as a weak front stalls out over the area. Better rain chances
return toward the middle of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

As depicted by 20 and 21Z HRRR, isolated storms had developed
along a outflow boundary from southern wisconsin into lake
michigan. In addition, widely scattered showers and storms were
developing across portions of Illinois. Best instability remains
to the west but Mesoscale models show at least some instability
still working in over the next couple of hours, likely enough to
at least maintain the storms. Main concerns lie with nearshore
waters with the warm temps. Various marine products being issued
to handle. As for land, HRRR shows the area of storms continuing
to congeal and drop SE coming on shore somewhere around 00Z and
working inland. 88D showing a boundary (edge of higher moisture?)
extending from central Berrien county southeast to southern St Joe
county in Michigan. Given recent trends would expect convection to
follow this and survive inland, but weaken as loss of heating and
increased capping take their toll on the storms. Grids have high
chc pops for now in NW and may need to increase further if trends
continue. Convection from Chicago to northeast of Peoria may
impact SW parts of the area warranting nudging up pops as well.

Severe weather is not expected, but could be some gusty winds and
small hail, especially as they move on shore.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Not much change with regard to forecast for this evening and
overnight. Robust shortwave seen on water vapor imagery across
northern Lakes sending a modest cold front through the region.
However, this wave is getting rapidly sheared and absorbed into
larger PV reservoir over Quebec and will cause trailing front to slow
and weaken through the overnight. Still, modest destabilization
noted across northern IL in RAP mesoanalysis with a decent 850-700mb
theta-e ridge advecting into our area. This will be enough to
maintain at least SCT convection across our N/NW zones through the
early evening. Most hi-res guidance agrees current convection over
Lake MI will dissipate but additional storms will develop over
northern IL late this afternoon. Thereafter, loss of diabatic
heating and continual stripping away of mid/upper support for lower
level convergence/fgen will lead to dwindling chances to the south
and east. Most hi-res CAM's fairly aggressive in cutting off precip
around or shortly after midnight which makes sense given lack of
forceful isentropic ascent or moisture advection. Inherited forecast
reflects this quite well and only minor tweaks needed. Suppose there
is a chance for an isolated strong storm this evening in the NW
given SBCAPE values progged to be around 1500 J/kg with 25-30 kts
deep-layer shear. However, there is a fairly sharp moisture/
instability gradient and with both diurnal and advective component
waning, expect any stronger storms to quickly weaken in our CWA.
Best chances in our far NW counties where some brief heavy rain and
gusty winds are possible around 00Z. Precip chances winding down
after 06Z with overnight lows in the mid 60s given clouds/precip and
higher surface dewpoints.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Remnant boundary will then hang across our area through the middle
of the week and bring at least some low chances for showers/storms
Mon and Tue. Little to no mid/upper support though with slowly
rising heights. Precip chances will depend on diurnal instability to
do much of the heavy lifting, a dubious proposition given lackluster
moisture profiles/surface dewpoints. Latest GFS even suggests a more
aggressive anticyclonic push, forcing boundary and best precip
chances south of our area, or at least south of US-30. Some support
for this in NAM12 and hi-res models so latest consensus init is more
subdued and further S/SW with PoPs. Suspect most of this period will
end up being dry (especially in our N/NE) but some low chances still
warranted. No severe risk given warm temps aloft, limited moisture,
and lack of substantive shear/flow aloft.

Much better rain chances arrive late Wed/early Thu. Models remain
consistent on tracking healthy shortwave through the area, though
still differ with regard to exact timing. Despite a fairly
consistent picture across the deterministic models, confidence is
not high as this wave will likely be modulated by convective trends
upstream. Potential is there for a potent area of CVA with compact
wave and good surface reflection. Still not a great severe signal
but heavy rain possible in this scenario given ample deformation/
fgen in moist environment. Will continue to watch this period
closely given recent heavy rain in some locations but difficult to
nail down details until wave emerges from the Rockies on Tuesday.
Still looks like a cold frontal passage sometime around Fri with
cool/dry/pleasant weather late weekend/early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 705 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

A convergent boundary oriented generally east to west situated
west of Lake Michigan and then moving southeast will serve as
forcing for showers and storms into the early overnight. The late
afternoon state of the atmosphere lacked CAPE and shear, but
contained decent 2-6KM lapse rates. Expect CAPE and shear to
advect into the region from the west tonight, but dissipate around
sunset. This should allow for showers and thunderstorms especially
near SBN in the early overnight with a strong storm or two
possible so will include a VCTS for that time period. A brief
reduction in conditions with heavy rain moving through is also
possible. CAMs show storms entering the NW portion of the forecast
area, but dissipating as they move towards FWA, though a VCSH
can't be ruled out there. Expect conditions to stay in VFR
overnight with some showers continuing along the boundary as it
becomes situated across the region overnight. More showers and
maybe a thunderstorm are possible again Monday.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Fisher
SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel/AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...Roller

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1225 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-030630-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
1225 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 /1125 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today into Tonight

There is a chance for scattered thunderstorms Sunday night.
Strong to severe storms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There are periodic chances for thunderstorms next week. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-030630-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
1225 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today into tonight

There is a chance for scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon
into tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There are periodic chances for thunderstorms next week.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
707 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

INZ003-MIZ077-022330-
La Porte-Berrien-
707 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LA PORTE
AND BERRIEN COUNTIES...

At 706 PM EDT/606 PM CDT/, radar indicated the leading edge of an
area of showers and embedded strong thunderstorms extending from
near Lake Michigan Beach to near Town Of Pines. Movement was
southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Michigan City, La Porte, Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, Trail Creek, Fair
Plain, Benton Heights, Bridgman, New Buffalo, Berrien Springs,
Watervliet, Three Oaks, Coloma, Long Beach, Stevensville,
Pottawattamie Park, Shorewood-Tower Hill, Paw Paw Lake,
Shorewood-Tower Hills-Harbert and Lake Michigan Beach.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 196 between mile markers 0 and 7.
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 45 and 61.
 Interstate 94 in Indiana between mile markers 36 and 45.
 Interstate 94 in Michigan between mile markers 0 and 42.

Torrential rainfall is likely occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4204 8622 4158 8670 4169 8693 4173 8691
      4178 8695 4194 8670 4213 8658 4211 8649
      4224 8636 4224 8623
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 298DEG 26KT 4221 8646 4174 8697

FISHER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
811 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

INZ003-004-012>014-MIZ077-030100-
La Porte-St. Joseph-Marshall-Pulaski-Starke-Berrien-
811 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN ST. JOSEPH...
NORTHWESTERN PULASKI...STARKE...NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL...LA PORTE AND
SOUTH CENTRAL BERRIEN COUNTIES...

At 810 PM EDT/710 PM CDT/, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were
located along a line extending from near New Carlisle to 7 miles
north of Sheldon. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
La Porte, Westville, Knox, Walkerton, North Liberty, New Carlisle,
North Judson, Three Oaks, Kingsford Heights, Wanatah, Francesville,
Hamlet, Medaryville, La Crosse, Koontz Lake, Oak Grove, Hanna, La
Paz, Kingsbury and Lomax.

This includes Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 39 and
64.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4157 8693 4186 8656 4146 8624 4091 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 328DEG 26KT 4174 8653 4087 8761

FISHER

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