Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Northern Indiana

487 
WWUS53 KIWX 032007
SVSIWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
407 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017

OHC039-069-032045-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-170703T2045Z/
Defiance OH-Henry OH-
407 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN DEFIANCE AND SOUTH CENTRAL HENRY COUNTIES...

At 406 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Defiance,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Defiance, Holgate, Florida, New Bavaria, Jewell, Brunersburg,
Pleasant Bend, Ayersville, Standley and The Bend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4125 8457 4140 8445 4129 8405 4117 8408
      4116 8421 4119 8434 4121 8434 4121 8443
      4122 8446 4125 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 301DEG 22KT 4129 8443 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CR

775 
WWUS53 KIWX 032022
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
422 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017

OHC039-069-032045-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-170703T2045Z/
Defiance OH-Henry OH-
422 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN DEFIANCE AND SOUTH CENTRAL HENRY COUNTIES...

At 421 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Defiance, 
moving southeast at 35 mph. At 417 PM EDT, a report came in from 
Defiance county with wind removing shingles and downing branches.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Defiance, Holgate, New Bavaria, Jewell, Brunersburg, Pleasant Bend,
Ayersville and Standley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4124 8446 4136 8438 4126 8406 4117 8408
      4116 8421 4119 8434 4121 8434 4121 8443
      4122 8445 4122 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 300DEG 29KT 4123 8430 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CR

798 
WWUS53 KIWX 032038
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
438 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017

OHC039-069-032047-
/O.EXP.KIWX.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-170703T2045Z/
Defiance OH-Henry OH-
438 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DEFIANCE AND
SOUTH CENTRAL HENRY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4124 8446 4136 8438 4126 8406 4117 8408
      4116 8421 4119 8434 4121 8434 4121 8443
      4122 8445 4122 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 279DEG 20KT 4119 8419 

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
236 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

A cold front will drift south through the forecast area this
evening. This will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
especially along and south of highway 30. Though we could see a
few stronger storms, severe weather is not expected. Precipitation
activity should die out after sunset. Lows will be in the 60s.
Independence day looks to be partly cloudy with highs ranging from
80 to 85 degrees. There is a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms along and south of highway 24...west of interstate
69. Severe weather is not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

Isolated showers percolating across MI have largely dissipated with
orphaned frontal boundary slowly sagging south across our CWA. Still
some capping noted on hourly forecast soundings and mesoanalysis but
continual diabatic heating and sufficient low level moisture still
expected to generate 1000-1500 J/kg of uncapped MLCAPE this
afternoon, mainly along and south of US-30. With modest low level
convergence in place, expect ISO/SCT showers and storms in our south
through the evening. Deep-layer shear values are marginal south of
the front (generally less than 25 kts) but suppose its not
impossible to see an isolated damaging wind gust given moderate
instability. Convection will likely remain pulsey with little/no
organization. Isolated showers could continue through much of the
night but expect bulk of the activity will simmer down after 01-02Z
and kept the post-06Z period dry. Overnight lows will be similar to
last night...mid 60s in south and around 60F to the north given
cooler/drier postfrontal air and less cloud cover.

Left Tue primarily dry with most 12Z guidance continuing trend of
stronger AVA/subsidence and surface high pressure over the Great
Lakes, forcing surface boundary just S/SW of our CWA. A stray shower
may clip our far southern zones but expect primarily dry conditions.
Temps and dewpoints may be a degree or two cooler but temp/moisture
advections not particularly strong and will be similar to today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

12Z guidance also continued earlier noted trend of later and more
southern track to Wednesday night's wave. 12Z deterministic GFS even
suggests most of the CWA will remain dry. Confidence in any one
scenario remains low with high degree of spread in ensemble guidance
and uncertainties with regard to convective modulation upstream.
Tried not to make drastic changes to PoP forecast but did lower them
a bit (and push them more into Thu) based on latest consensus. Heavy
rain still possible given seasonably strong CVA forcing, and ample
moisture but obviously will depend on track as to whether our
counties are impacted. Better chances look to be south of US-30 at
this point. Cold front still set to pass through on Friday but sharp
difference in GFS and 03.00Z ECMWF handling of next longwave
trough/closed low leading to high uncertainty with regard to weekend
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

A weak cold front draped across Southern Lower Michigan/far northern
Indiana will continue its southward progression through the TAF
period. Winds out of the NW at the moment will gradually veer to the
N-NE as the front passes this afternoon. Given the instability of
around 1500-2000 J/Kg present thanks to weak moisture transport and
afternoon heating, expect the front to kick of some scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the 20Z timeframe, gradually tapering
off after we lose the daytime heating around 02Z. Things look to
stay VFR for the most part, except maybe a brief downtick to MVFR
within any thunderstorms or heavier showers. Though SBN could see an
isolated shower or thunderstorm, have much lower confidence as much
of the guidance still suggests development south and east of the
area- which makes sense given the current position of the frontal
boundary. KFWA will probably see a couple of showers or storms
tonight, so have VCTS for now given the uncertainty of
timing/placement. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail later tonight
into Tuesday-with VFR conditions on tap.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MCD

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
309 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-040715-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
309 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017 /209 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early
this evening, mainly across northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.
Isolated wind gusts greater than 40 mph, heavy downpours, and
lightning will be the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance for thunderstorms later Wednesday through Friday.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-040715-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
309 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance for thunderstorms later Wednesday through Friday.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
344 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017

OHZ004-005-032015-
Henry-Defiance-
344 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT DEFIANCE AND WESTERN HENRY
COUNTIES...

At 344 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles south of
Bryan, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Defiance, Farmer, Ney, Florida, Evansport, Jewell, Ridgeville
Corners, Williams Center, Ayersville, The Bend, Brunersburg, Okolona,
Mark Center and Standley.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4120 8420 4123 8446 4125 8446 4125 8465
      4143 8464 4143 8434 4145 8434 4146 8418
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 271DEG 23KT 4135 8457

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