Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
250 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

Numerous showers and storms will continue through the evening. A
few of these storms may be strong to severe with isolated damaging
winds and small hail. Heavy rain and flooding are also possible
given rain amounts from last night. Storms will gradually taper
off later tonight though a few showers may be possible through
Saturday. Less humid conditions are expected over the weekend with
seasonable temperatures. The chance for rain and storms will
return early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

Convection starting a bit earlier than expected this afternoon but
otherwise not too many changes to the forecast from previous
discussions. SPC/RAP mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE values around 1500
J/kg nosing into our SW zones with surface dewpoints in the low
70s. This instability is almost entirely uncapped and widespread
convection is unfolding along broad region of confluence as a
result. Effective shear struggling to get above 25 kts but is
starting to climb as shortwave approaches the area. This
combination of high moisture, moderate instability, and some weak
shear/flow aloft will continue to support the threat for isolated
damaging wind gusts and small hail through the evening hours. Of
much greater concern is the heavy rain and potential flooding
threat. Widespread convection (training in some spots) with PW
values climbing above 1.8 inches and 850mb dewpoints around 16C
will support pockets of heavy rain through the evening. Normally
this wouldn't be too much of a concern but will likely cause more
issues given rain last night. Latest HRRR and RAP13 still
suggesting some potential for more organized/sustained updrafts
early this evening (through 00Z) as shortwave approaches and
wind/shear increase but still think flooding is main concern with
just an isolated wind threat. Expect precip to gradually wind down
from 00-06Z as instability wanes and this initial region of
convergence shifts east. That being said...could still be an
isolated shower through Sat morning (especially in the east) as
main trough axis passes. Models (including hi-res CAMs) still show
potential for a few afternoon showers tomorrow with some residual
moisture and cooling aloft. Not expecting anything strong/severe
though and coverage should remain low.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

Not much value added to long term forecast with focus on near-term
convection and a high degree of unpredictability heading into next
week. Sunday still expected to be mainly dry though did add some low
chance PoPs late in the afternoon for our northern counties with NAM
and GFS insistent on some isentropic ascent/warm frontogenesis in
right entrance region of decent upper jet streak swinging through
the Great Lakes. Slight uptick in low level theta-e with upstream
moisture plume advected in by westerly flow but moisture quality is
still not great and not expecting large coverage or any strong
updrafts. Chances persist into Sunday night.

Forecast confidence remains low for next week with frontal boundary
stalled over the region, increasing moisture/instability to the
south, and potential for one or more small scale waves to ripple
through the region. Deterministic models continue to offer varying
solutions from run to run, unfortunately requiring blanket low
chance PoPs for much of the period. Does look like a decent chance
of rain/storms sometime late Tue/Wed but confidence in exact timing
and track of parent shortwave is very low. Currently appears dry Thu
with another cold front arriving sometime late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

A low pressure system will drag a cold front through the TAF
sites tonight. Scattered ongoing showers and thunderstorms will
become more numerous through the early evening hours, especially
at KFWA as a result of some of the leftover outflow boundaries
from last night, and afternoon instability. Within thunderstorms,
we could see some gusty winds and drops in visibility due to heavy
rain. Kept KSBN MVFR or better through the overnight as
conditions look more supportive of storms further east-and the
front moves through KSBN earlier. Felt confident going with IFR
for KFWA within thunderstorms as an earlier storm went through
that led to visibilities of around 2 miles. Have a tempo group to
account for this at this point. May modify to a prevailing group
if things become widespread, which some models indicate may occur.
With abundant moisture in the air and rainfall/storms in the
area, opted to include a period of BR at KFWA later tonight. We
could see ceilings drop below 2000 during this time. Once the cold
front moves through late tonight/early Saturday I suspect it will
clear out, and winds will shift to the west.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MCD

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
414 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-010815-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
414 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 /314 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening.
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible with the primary
threats damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a low chance for thunderstorms on Saturday. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

There are periodic chances for thunderstorms next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any strong winds or hail reports
this afternoon into this evening.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-010815-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
414 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Saturday. Severe thunderstorms
are not expected at this time.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
210 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017

OHZ015-301845-
Paulding-
210 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PAULDING COUNTY...

At 210 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Paulding, or 13
miles north of Van Wert, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Paulding, Oakwood, Grover Hill, Scott, Melrose, Haviland, Latty,
Broughton, Worstville, Arthur, Charloe and Briceton.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4099 8453 4099 8461 4107 8472 4121 8452
      4121 8435 4111 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 227DEG 18KT 4106 8457

MARSILI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
219 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017

INZ009-018-301845-
Allen-De Kalb-
219 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ALLEN AND
SOUTHEASTERN DE KALB COUNTIES...

At 219 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Grabill to 7 miles west of Fort
Wayne. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Wayne, Huntertown, Grabill, St. Joe, Leo-cedarville, Concord,
Harlan, Wallen, Spencerville In Dekalb County, Cuba, Arcola, Saint
Joe and Lake Everett.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 469 between mile markers 23 and 30.
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 302 and 322.

LAT...LON 4107 8509 4102 8531 4118 8532 4118 8531
      4119 8531 4136 8489 4130 8480 4118 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 253DEG 17KT 4126 8499 4106 8528

MARSILI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
232 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE HUNTINGTON        40.88N 85.49W
06/30/2017                   HUNTINGTON         IN   PUBLIC

            TREE LIMB DOWN.

&&

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
239 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017

INZ017-018-025-301915-
Whitley-Huntington-Allen-
239 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ALLEN...
SOUTHEASTERN WHITLEY AND NORTHEASTERN HUNTINGTON COUNTIES...

At 238 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast of
Huntington, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Wayne, Aboite, Roanoke, Nine Mile, Bowerstown, Dunfee, Mahon and
Rolling Hills.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 469 between mile markers 0 and 3, and between mile
markers 7 and 8.
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 294 and 302.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4088 8544 4097 8552 4111 8534 4096 8516
      4092 8533 4091 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 239DEG 18KT 4095 8541

MARSILI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
246 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017

OHZ005-016-301915-
Henry-Putnam-
246 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM AND
SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTIES...

At 246 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Holgate, or 11
miles north of Ottawa, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leipsic, Deshler, Holgate, Hamler, West Leipsic, Belmore, Miller
City, New Bavaria, Prentiss, Gallup and Pleasant Bend.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4108 8415 4122 8423 4123 8422 4135 8388
      4111 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 250DEG 14KT 4117 8411

MARSILI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
251 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     HAIL             GOBLESVILLE             40.99N 85.51W
06/30/2017  E0.50 INCH       HUNTINGTON         IN   PUBLIC

&&

CR