Areal Flood Warning 64, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
740 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Near Term...Watch/Warning/Advisory section and Aviation section has
been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

A brief break from thunderstorms can be expected Wednesday, before
rain chances return by Thursday with a cold front. High pressure
will then provide dry conditions Saturday. A couple of fronts could
bring some more rain to parts of the area Sunday and Tuesday. Hot
and humid conditions midweek will give way to closer to average
conditions by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of Tonight/
Issued at 740 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Showers and Storms quickly moved out of our area late this
afternoon.  With the area being worked over and the rapid refresh
indicating no more storms overnight...will cancel the flash flood
watch early.

Areas that received very heavy rain earlier today...will handle with
areal flood warnings.  But the main point is no more heavy rain
will occur tonight.

Will keep 20 percent POPS in our north and northeast sections this
evening and go dry elsewhere.

Rest of the the near term including low temperatures is still on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/
Issued at 246 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

On Wednesday the upper ridge nudges into the area and temperatures
aloft warm. This should inhibit convection for the much of the area.
Cannot rule out an isolated storm, but odds are too low to mention.
Went cooler than most guidance for highs across a good part of the
area with the wet ground. It will still be very warm though with
highs in the upper 80s to around 90.

Wednesday night a cold front will approach the area, so will go with
some chance PoPs across the northwest half or so of the forecast
area. As the front moves into the area Thursday and Thursday night
will go chance PoPs all areas. Will keep some lingering PoPs Friday
as the front exits.

Wouldn't rule out some strong storms on Thursday with the front.

Confidence is medium in chances and timing of rain during the short
term as how convection develops one period could affect the next
period's chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Monday/...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Central Indiana is expected to dry out this weekend and early next
week as ensembles expand the Rockies upper ridge to the northeast.
This will help let river and stream crests progress as quickly as
possible. Confidence in mostly dry weather is good.

See not reason to mess with seasonable blend temperatures with highs
mostly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 120000Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 740 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

VFR through the period.

MCS has moved out and latest short term models indicate quiet
weather overnight and Wednesday as high pressure along the southeast
U.S. coast and low pressure moving from the central plains to upper
midwest keeps us under a Southwest flow.

Could be some marginal low level wind shear at KLAF late tonight as
pressure gradient a little stronger there.

Added a little diurnal CU at TAF sites Wednesday.

Winds will be southwest 5 to 8 knots overnight and around 12 knots
Wednesday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH

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