Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Indianapolis, IN

575 
WGUS83 KIND 061221
FLSIND

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
821 AM EDT SAT MAY 6 2017

INC035-065-135-139-061230-
/O.EXP.KIND.FA.W.0013.000000T0000Z-170506T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Randolph IN-Rush IN-Delaware IN-Henry IN-
821 AM EDT SAT MAY 6 2017

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR RANDOLPH...RUSH...DELAWARE AND
HENRY COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended.  Therefore, the flooding threat has ended. 
**!

LAT...LON 4001 8481 4000 8520 3979 8522 3979 8530
      3945 8530 3945 8563 3978 8563 3979 8559
      3987 8558 4038 8558 4038 8522 4031 8522
      4031 8480

$$

TDUD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
638 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017

An area of low pressure will move off to the east today, but another
quick moving low will move in tonight into Saturday. The result will
be a continuation of rain across central Indiana into Saturday. High
pressure will then build in and bring dry conditions early next
week. Another system will bring more rain chances mid week next week.
Temperatures will remain below normal through the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017

Rain has become scattered across central Indiana early this morning.
However, that will change as an area of deformation sets up across
the eastern half of the area later this morning. This plus
additional isentropic lift will lead to high PoPs and the potential
for additional heavy rain across mainly the southeastern half of the
area today. Lower PoPs will exist to the west where forcing is
weaker.

Forcing gets strung out and moves east during the afternoon, so PoPs
will diminish from west to east.

Precipitable water values remain over an inch across the southeast
half of the forecast area. Will maintain Flash Flood Watch there.
Will shave off a row of counties along the western border where
rainfall is expected to be lighter. If the deformation band were to
set up farther east, then more of the watch may be cleared later
this morning.

At any rate, flooding is ongoing across many areas so area flood
warnings will continue as needed.

Some partial clearing may occur across the west, so went in the
upper 50s for highs there. Across the far east where rain and clouds
will continue, went near 50 for a high today.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday night/
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Another spoke of upper energy will move across the forecast area
tonight into early Saturday along with a surface low. The left exit
region of an upper jet will provide additional forcing. Moisture
looks adequate enough for high chance category PoPs, after 06Z.

These will continue into Saturday morning, the PoPs will diminish
Saturday afternoon as the system moves away. A couple of tenths of
an inch of rain are possible in some areas.

High pressure will then build in and provide a dry forecast for the
remainder of the short term. Temperatures will dip into the 30s
Saturday night and Sunday night. Winds look to stay up enough to
prevent widespread frost Saturday night, but will have to watch out
for Sunday night with lighter winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017

Models in general have central Indiana in between 2 upper lows for
the long term. Meanwhile, a frontal system will be over the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. Upper waves in northwest flow aloft along with
the front and sufficient moisture justify shower chances over all or
parts of central Indiana starting Monday night. Chances and coverage
will increase by Tuesday night as the western upper low moves
closer. Could see a few storms as well, mainly southwest and Tuesday
afternoon and night.

After a cold and possibly frosty Monday morning, temperatures will
moderate with highs returning to near normal by Tuesday with highs
in the 60s. Southwestern parts of the forecast area could even see
some 70s. Blend reflected this well.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 051200Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 638 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017

Moderate confidence that MVFR flying conditions will improve to VFR
15z-18z. Good confidence the showers should end 15z-21z from west to
east.

It will be windy once again with north winds to 20 knots and gusts
to 31 knots through 22z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for INZ037>042-045>049-
052>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
546 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-061000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute,
Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour
546 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in effect through 7 pm near and
southeast of an Anderson to Indianapolis to Sullivan line. Northwest
of that line, there is a Flood Warning through 1115 am. Wind gusts to
40 mph combined with wet ground could result in downed trees.

Hazards: Heavy rainfall will result in lingering flooding. Wind gusts
to 40 mph.

Timing: Flooding Today and Tonight. Winds gusts through 6 pm.

Discussion: A strong low pressure system will move from the Tennessee
Valley to the eastern Great Lakes by Saturday morning. Shower
chances will decrease this afternoon and tonight from west to east.
However, there could still be heavy rain at times today near and
southeast of Anderson, Indianapolis and Sullivan. This could result
in renewed flooding. Moderate flooding will occur along parts of
central Indiana rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Outlook: Moderate flooding will continue through next week over parts
of the lower Wabash and White rivers. Thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night over southwestern parts of
central Indiana. Severe storms are not expected at this time.

Patchy frost will be possible over parts of central Indiana early
Sunday and Monday.

Discussion: A strong low pressure system will move from the Tennessee
Valley to the eastern Great Lakes by Saturday morning. Then, an upper
wave will drop down from the north and result in more showers
Saturday, After that, dry weather is expected Saturday night through
at least Monday evening. Then, rain chances will return over all or
parts of central Indiana ahead of an upper low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated but rainfall and flooding reports
would be helpful and appreciated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind