Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
259 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

A cold front was pushing into west-central Illinois at mid-
afternoon. This front is expected to clear the forecast area to east
around Midnight, taking the associated threat of showers and
thunderstorms with it. There is a risk of a few severe storms at
least into early evening with modest instability (CAPEs to around
2000 j/kg) and fairly strong shear (bulk shear around 50 kts).
Primary threats remain large hail and damaging wind gusts.

High pressure will start building into the area for Tuesday behind
the front. Cooler conditions are expected, but temperatures will
still be near normal for early-mid April. The drier air mass
associated with the high will also return quiet weather to the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Surface high pressure and weak upper-level ridging will be place
across the forecast area into Wednesday night, providing continued
quiet weather. Then, a weak, fast moving, short wave will bring the
next chance for showers/storm to the area by Thursday. However, this
will be a weakening wave and should not be a significant weather
producer.

Upper-level heights will build across the area to end the week,
resulting in well above normal temperatures across the area by
Friday and Saturday. However, as the heights build, a disturbance
will cross the area from the southwest and push a warm front across
the area. The passage of this front and the more unstable air in its
wake supports a periodic risk of showers/storms through Saturday.

A stronger wave will top/flatten the ridge Saturday night into
Sunday, pushing a cold front through the area. The passage of this
front should be accompanied by a more widespread risk of
showers/storms, as well as heavier rainfall. Drier and somewhat
cooler conditions return to the area behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

VFR conditions should prevail across the central Illinois
terminals for the bulk of the 18Z TAF valid time. However, brief
periods of MVFR conditions are possible this afternoon into early
evening as showers/storms ahead of an advancing cold front move
through the area. Gusty southerly winds ahead of the front will
diminish and trend west and eventually northwest behind the front.
Wrap around MVFR CIGs are possible Tuesday morning, but
confidence is too low to include at this time.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Bak

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1140 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

ILZ040-047-049-050-111100-
Cass-Morgan-Schuyler-Scott-
1140 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Minor to moderate flooding will continue along the Illinois River
through this week.

Scattered thunderstorms will occur across the area this afternoon.
A few of the storms will be capable of producing strong wind
gusts along with hail around nickel size. These will mainly be
during the early afternoon hours, until a cold front pushes across
the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

The next chance for thunderstorms will be late Wednesday night
into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed from around midday through early
afternoon.

ILZ027>031-036-037-041-111100-
Fulton-Knox-Marshall-Mason-Peoria-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
1140 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms will occur through the afternoon, as a
cold front slowly tracks across the region. There is a slight risk
of severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds and large hail the
main threats. The threat of storms should move east of the area by
5 pm.

Minor to moderate flooding will continue along the Illinois River
through this week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

The next chance for thunderstorms will be late Wednesday night
into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through 5 pm.

ILZ038-042>046-048-053-111100-
Champaign-De Witt-Logan-Macon-McLean-Menard-Piatt-Vermilion-
1140 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon hours,
lingering until near sunset close to the Indiana border. There is
a slight risk of these storms becoming severe, with damaging
winds and large hail the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

The next chance for thunderstorms will be on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening,
mainly before 7 pm.

ILZ051-052-054>057-061-111100-
Christian-Coles-Douglas-Edgar-Moultrie-Sangamon-Shelby-
1140 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Additional thunderstorms are expected across the area through the
afternoon, lingering over eastern Illinois into early evening. A
few of the storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts
and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

The next chance for thunderstorms will be on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through early evening, most
likely through 6 pm.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-111100-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
1140 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A cold front is expected to push across the area this evening,
bringing the threat for scattered thunderstorms to southeast
Illinois. A few of the storms will be capable of producing strong
wind gusts and hail later this afternoon into the evening hours.

Minor flooding is expected to continue along the Little Wabash
River through tonight, and along the Wabash River into next week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

The next chance for thunderstorms will be on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon into early
this evening. Current indications suggest the primary time frame
would be from 4 pm until 10 pm this evening.

Geelhart

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
218 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

ILZ066-067-071-101945-
Clay-Jasper-Effingham-
218 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN JASPER...NORTHERN CLAY
AND EFFINGHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 217 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Teutopolis to near Kinmundy. Movement was east
at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Effingham, Altamont, Teutopolis, Louisville, Watson, Dieterich,
Edgewood, Bible Grove, Montrose, Wheeler, Iola, Sailor Springs,
Ingraham, Bogota, Moccasin, Mason, Oskaloosa, Heartville, Lake Sara
and Gila.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 57 between mile markers 142 and 165.
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 79 and 105.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Lincoln.

&&

LAT...LON 3891 8870 3891 8881 3918 8880 3917 8816
      3873 8830 3873 8870
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 268DEG 50KT 3911 8849 3876 8871

Geelhart

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
238 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

ILZ047-049-050-102015-
Scott-Morgan-Cass-
238 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SCOTT...SOUTHWESTERN
CASS AND NORTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 238 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bluffs, or 9 miles northwest of Winchester, moving northeast at 45
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, Meredosia, Bluffs, Chapin, Arenzville, Naples, Exeter,
South Jacksonville, Concord, Valley City, Merritt, Oxville and
Jacksonville Municipal Airport.

This includes Interstate 72 between mile markers 43 and 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Illinois.

LAT...LON 3974 9062 3981 9059 3983 9057 3987 9058
      3999 9033 3972 9017 3967 9062 3971 9065
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 243DEG 38KT 3976 9054

37

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
301 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0249 PM     HAIL             2 N CUBA                40.52N 90.19W
04/10/2017  M1.00 INCH       FULTON             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JRP

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
319 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

ILZ048-050-051-102100-
Sangamon-Morgan-Menard-
319 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MENARD...
NORTHWESTERN SANGAMON AND NORTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
CDT...

At 318 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ashland, or 10 miles northeast of Jacksonville, moving east at 50
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Ashland, Pleasant Plains, Prentice, Salisbury, Sinclair,
Farmingdale and Capital Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Lincoln.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central and west central Illinois.

LAT...LON 3988 9007 3987 9000 3990 9000 3998 8979
      3984 8966 3977 9014 3983 9019
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 250DEG 43KT 3982 9008

Geelhart