Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
332 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Most of central and southeast IL has been dry so far early this
morning with recent band of convection appearing nw of the IL river.
Breezy ssw winds and mostly cloudy skies keeping mild temps in the
mid to upper 60s, with Effingham still at 70F. Main area of
convection over northern MO and southern IA associated with a small
MCS ahead of a compact short wave trof over SD/NE. Hi-resolution
models gradually weaken this strong to locally severe convection
with some hail as it tracks eastward into central IL thru the
morning, mainly affecting western/nw half of CWA. 1000 mb surface
low pressure near La Crosse, WI will weaken as it track into
northern lower MI by 18Z/1 pm today. Another surface low pressure
about 1007 mb ejects ne from southeast KS into nw IL this afternoon
and pulling cold front se toward the IL river by early evening. Air
mass to destabilize ahead of cold front over central IL during
this afternoon as MLCapes rise to 1000-1500 J/kg. SPC has marginal
risk across much of CWA this afternoon into mid evening, while
slight risk is in northeast IL ne of Marshall county. Another mild
day in the 70s ahead of the cold front today with breezy sw winds
gusting to 25-35 mph. Good chances of showers and t thunderstorms
this evening especially east of the IL river, then diminishing
overnight, with just isolated convection southeast of I-70 by late
tonight as cold front moves se of IL and approaching the ohio
river by dawn Tue. Lows tonight range from lower 40s nw of the IL
river, to 50-55F southeast of I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Pacific high pressure over the central and northern Rockies to drift
east into the eastern Plains on Tue, across IL Tue night and over
lower MI and ohio river valley on Wed. This to bring a dry
conditions to CWA from Tue thru Wed evening. More sunshine expected
Tue through nw winds to cool temps closer to normal with highs
around 60F northern CWA and mid to upper 60s in southeast IL. Lows
Tue night around 40F northern CWA and near 45F by Lawrenceville. A
fair amount of sunshine expected Wed with winds becoming se and to
warm temps up a bit. Highs Wed into the mid 60s from I-74 ne and
upper 60s to near 70F sw of I-74. Not as cool Wed night as clouds
increase and se flow, with lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s.

Models bring a weakening frontal boundary and weak surface low
pressure of 1015 mb into central IA by dawn Thu. This to spread
chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms into western CWA
overnight Wed night and over area on Thu as weakening front moves
into area. Highs Thu in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Most areas
should be dry Thu night and only carries slight pops in northern
CWA.

Upper level ridge building into IL by dawn Friday and this to help
lift front back north as warm front and return chances of showers
and thunderstorms from sw to ne, with highs in the low to mid 70s on
Friday.Saturday appears to be the warmest day with highs 75-80F and
continued chances of showers and thunderstorms. The frontal boundary
appears to push back south into area on Easter Sunday with lingering
chances of convection. Temperatures starting to cool a bit
especially northern CWA where highs around 70F while mid 70s in
southeast IL but still staying above normal for mid April.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Continued LLWS overnight until 10-12Z across the central IL
airports with 2k ft SW winds of 45-55 kts and strongest at CMI.
Continued slower trends of bringing in convection chances later
tonight into Monday. Have PIA with VCTS starting at 10-11Z, along
I-55 at 11-12Z and 12-14Z at DEC and CMI. Though eastern airports
will likely just see a few showers this morning, then those areas
from I-55 east have VCTS Mon afternoon after 19Z. Most central IL
airports will have VFR conditions thought could see better
chances of MVFR ceilings around 2.5k ft at PIA during the day Monday.
Breezy SSW winds continue through Monday with gusts of 25-30 kts.
Then cold front to push se through PIA 23-24Z, to I-55 around 01Z
and to DEC and CMI from 02-03Z with winds veer WSW and
diminishing to 8-13 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...07

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
417 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017

ILZ027-029-101000-
Peoria-Knox-
417 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY UNTIL 500 AM
CDT...

At 416 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Monmouth, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Galesburg, Abingdon, Knoxville, Wataga, Oneida, Altona, Victoria,
Elmore, East Galesburg, Henderson, Dahinda, Snake Den Hollow and
Galesburg Airport.

This includes Interstate 74 between mile markers 41 and 59.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4115 8999 4098 8999 4097 8994 4078 9044
      4101 9044 4115 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 0916Z 239DEG 49KT 4087 9051

Smith