Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
544 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Most of central and southeast IL has been dry so far early this
morning with recent band of convection appearing nw of the IL river.
Breezy ssw winds and mostly cloudy skies keeping mild temps in the
mid to upper 60s, with Effingham still at 70F. Main area of
convection over northern MO and southern IA associated with a small
MCS ahead of a compact short wave trof over SD/NE. Hi-resolution
models gradually weaken this strong to locally severe convection
with some hail as it tracks eastward into central IL thru the
morning, mainly affecting western/nw half of CWA. 1000 mb surface
low pressure near La Crosse, WI will weaken as it track into
northern lower MI by 18Z/1 pm today. Another surface low pressure
about 1007 mb ejects ne from southeast KS into nw IL this afternoon
and pulling cold front se toward the IL river by early evening. Air
mass to destabilize ahead of cold front over central IL during
this afternoon as MLCapes rise to 1000-1500 J/kg. SPC has marginal
risk across much of CWA this afternoon into mid evening, while
slight risk is in northeast IL ne of Marshall county. Another mild
day in the 70s ahead of the cold front today with breezy sw winds
gusting to 25-35 mph. Good chances of showers and t thunderstorms
this evening especially east of the IL river, then diminishing
overnight, with just isolated convection southeast of I-70 by late
tonight as cold front moves se of IL and approaching the ohio
river by dawn Tue. Lows tonight range from lower 40s nw of the IL
river, to 50-55F southeast of I-70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Pacific high pressure over the central and northern Rockies to drift
east into the eastern Plains on Tue, across IL Tue night and over
lower MI and ohio river valley on Wed. This to bring a dry
conditions to CWA from Tue thru Wed evening. More sunshine expected
Tue through nw winds to cool temps closer to normal with highs
around 60F northern CWA and mid to upper 60s in southeast IL. Lows
Tue night around 40F northern CWA and near 45F by Lawrenceville. A
fair amount of sunshine expected Wed with winds becoming se and to
warm temps up a bit. Highs Wed into the mid 60s from I-74 ne and
upper 60s to near 70F sw of I-74. Not as cool Wed night as clouds
increase and se flow, with lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s.

Models bring a weakening frontal boundary and weak surface low
pressure of 1015 mb into central IA by dawn Thu. This to spread
chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms into western CWA
overnight Wed night and over area on Thu as weakening front moves
into area. Highs Thu in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Most areas
should be dry Thu night and only carries slight pops in northern
CWA.

Upper level ridge building into IL by dawn Friday and this to help
lift front back north as warm front and return chances of showers
and thunderstorms from sw to ne, with highs in the low to mid 70s on
Friday.Saturday appears to be the warmest day with highs 75-80F and
continued chances of showers and thunderstorms. The frontal boundary
appears to push back south into area on Easter Sunday with lingering
chances of convection. Temperatures starting to cool a bit
especially northern CWA where highs around 70F while mid 70s in
southeast IL but still staying above normal for mid April.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a small MCS
was moving quickly east to along the IL river by PIA at dawn,
will track east to along I-55 around 12Z and to DEC and CMI
between 13-14Z but will likely break up as it gets into eastern
IL. Carried MVFR conditions with TS from I-55 west to PIA thru mid
morning. Then expecting redevelopment of scattered convection
this afternoon after 19Z along and east of the IL river and have
VCTS back in the TAFs during the afternoon, and into mid evening
in eastern IL. Cold front currently over central parts of WI/IA to
move se to near the IL river/PIA by 00Z/7 pm and to CMI by late
this evening. Clouds should decrease behind the cold front
overnight. Continued LLWS at CMI for 1-2 more hours with 2k ft SW
winds of 45 kts. Otherwise breezy SSW winds 15-22 kts with gusts
of 25-30 kts today. Winds veer WSW behind cold front this evening
and weaken to 8-13 kts then turn WNW during overnight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...07

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
737 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017

ILZ045-046-101315-
Vermilion-Champaign-
737 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN VERMILION AND CENTRAL
CHAMPAIGN COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM CDT...

At 737 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Urbana, or near Champaign, moving northeast at 55 TO 60 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Champaign, Danville, Rantoul, Urbana, Savoy, Hoopeston, St. Joseph,
Fisher, Oakwood, Philo, Rossville, Sidney, Thomasboro, Gifford,
Ogden, Potomac, Rankin, Fithian, Muncie and Bismarck.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 57 between mile markers 237 and 257.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 177 and 208.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3996 8817 4029 8841 4040 8814 4040 8794
      4049 8793 4049 8753 4021 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1237Z 240DEG 53KT 4009 8815

Smith

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1131 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017

ILZ046-055-057-101715-
Douglas-Vermilion-Edgar-
1131 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN EDGAR...SOUTHERN
VERMILION AND EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CDT...

At 1130 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Newman, or 13 miles east of Tuscola, moving northeast at 65 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, Westville, Chrisman, Ridge Farm, Newman, Sidell, Belgium,
Hume, Brocton, Hindsboro, Edgar, Indianola, Murdock, Metcalf, Palermo
and Scottland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Lincoln.

&&

LAT...LON 3967 8797 3969 8797 3968 8806 3966 8806
      3965 8810 3975 8820 3988 8797 3988 8794
      3990 8794 4012 8753 3973 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1630Z 239DEG 54KT 3975 8804

Geelhart