Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
749 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop today along a
slow moving warm front. Drier conditions are expected Sunday when
the warm front is forecast to be near Lake Erie. A strong cold
front accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds will push
through early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Warm front situated near the Ohio River is the focus for
thunderstorms development. Thunderstorms are resulting from
moisture transported on a 35 knot low level jet lifting over the
front in the presence of multiple mid level short waves. These
thunderstorms are forming in an environment containing little
to no surface based CAPE, while elevated CAPE is near 1000 J/KG.
Torrential rain and isolated damaging wind and large hail have
been occurring with the thunderstorms, which have been training
across the same locations. Radar estimates indicate over 2
inches of rain so far mainly near the Ohio River.

Models suggest the front will be lifting north across the area
today. Expect thunderstorms to continue to develop, and
torrential downpours will persist with the airmass holding 1.6
inches of PWAT. Will keep flash flood watch in effect through
11 am. Based on latest radar and model trends, have expanded
watch in area to include parts of Central Ohio including
Columbus.

Thunderstorms have generally weakened below severe limits early
this morning. However, daytime heating may allow more severe
cells to develop later this morning and this afternoon as
instability rise with daytime heating.

Temperatures will vary notably with respect to frontal position.
Highs are expected to reach the mid 80s far south, the mid 70s
near I-70, and the mid 60s far north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Warm front will be north of the area near the Great Lakes
tonight through Sunday. Expect only a low chance for showers and
thunderstorms in this weather regime lacking deep moisture and
favorable forcing.

Southerly breezes in the warm sector will carry warmer
temperatures, with highs in the 80s forecast for all locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong cold front extending from well stacked low pressure will
move in from the west late Sunday night through Monday morning.
A band of showers and thunderstorm will develop along the front
and move across the area by Monday afternoon. Strong southwest
winds will usher in cooler temperatures behind the cold front,
with gusts reaching 40 mph Monday afternoon. For Tuesday, high
pressure is forecast to bring dry weather, and gradually
subsiding winds.

The next low pressure system is forecast to track into the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Thursday, producing the likelihood for
showers. Shower chances will linger Friday under an upper trough
following the surface low.

Expected conditions at the surface and aloft point to a cooling
trend. Near normal highs in the upper 60s Monday will slip to
the lower 60s by Friday under cold advection, clouds and precip.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Slow moving front is the focus for thunderstorms that will
continue to impact TAF sites with less than ideal flight
conditions. Improvement to VFR is expected by noon at southern
sites as the front lifts to Northern Ohio, carrying
thunderstorms with it. MVFR conditions accompanying the
thunderstorms will tend to persist until late afternoon at
northern sites closer to the front. Wind direction will vary
with frontal movement, with east winds becoming south by the end
of the forecast. VFR should prevail late in the forecast as
drier air arrives in the warm sector. South winds will gust over
20 knots at CVG near the end of their 30 hour TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with thunderstorms are
possible Sunday night and Monday. Wind gusts to 35 kt possible
Sunday into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ042-
     051>055-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Coniglio

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
512 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

OHZ026-034-035-043>046-056-300915-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Licking-
512 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A few severe thunderstorms are possible, with primary threats of
large hail and heavy rainfall. Isolated damaging winds and an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Wind gusts up to 40 MPH are possible on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ042-051>055-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088-300915-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Darke-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
512 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

A few severe thunderstorms are possible, with primary threats of
large hail and heavy rainfall. Isolated damaging winds and an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Wind gusts up to 40 MPH are possible on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
941 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSE WILMINGTON        39.42N 83.82W
04/29/2017  M48 MPH          CLINTON            OH   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OBSERVATION TAKEN AT NWS OFFICE.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
943 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0939 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WNW BROOKVILLE        39.43N 85.03W
04/29/2017  M2.10 INCH       FRANKLIN           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

&&

KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
944 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

OHZ054-055-062>064-072-073-080-082-291415-
Pike OH-Highland OH-Ross OH-Fayette OH-Madison OH-Clinton OH-
Franklin OH-Pickaway OH-Greene OH-
944 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN FRANKLIN...
FAYETTE...EAST CENTRAL CLINTON...PICKAWAY...NORTHWESTERN PIKE...EAST
CENTRAL GREENE...HIGHLAND...SOUTHERN MADISON AND WESTERN ROSS
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM EDT...

At 943 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from near Jeffersonville to near Washington Court House to
Sardinia, moving northeast at 70 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Pea size hail...

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Grove City, Upper Arlington, Hilliard, Washington Court
House, Circleville, Bexley, London, Hillsboro, Greenfield, Groveport,
West Jefferson, Ashville, Mount Sterling, South Bloomfield, Leesburg,
Jeffersonville, Marshall, Williamsport and Bloomingburg.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 89 and 104.
 I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 64 and 116.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3916 8321 3902 8378 3902 8384 3949 8358
      3975 8369 3977 8364 3977 8359 3980 8358
      4008 8300 3976 8284
TIME...MOT...LOC 1343Z 243DEG 61KT 3972 8359 3953 8350 3902 8379

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
950 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNW LOVELAND          39.31N 84.29W
04/29/2017                   WARREN             OH   PUBLIC

            WATER RUSHING OVER MEADOW DR. NEAR IRWIN SIMPSON RD.

&&

KC

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>