Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1056 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish this afternoon.
Drier conditions are expected Sunday when the warm front is
forecast to be near Lake Erie. A strong cold front accompanied
by thunderstorms and gusty winds will push through early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MCS continues across the region. Most robust convection is
moving out of the eastern counties, but plenty of stratiform
lingers. This is lifting north and should continue to do so
while weakening at the same time. High resolution near term
guidance suggests that the forecast area will be nearly
precipitation free by the end of the day. That said, until the
rainfall diminishes this afternoon, there will be a flood threat
given the saturated ground conditions. So extended the flash
flood watch out into the afternoon.

Looks like clouds will decrease across the south, but be
persistent across the north. Based on this as well where
temperatures approaching midday, have lowered highs, especially
in northern counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Warm front will be north of the area near the Great Lakes
tonight through Sunday. Expect only a low chance for showers and
thunderstorms in this weather regime lacking deep moisture and
favorable forcing.

Southerly breezes in the warm sector will carry warmer
temperatures, with highs in the 80s forecast for all locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong cold front extending from well stacked low pressure will
move in from the west late Sunday night through Monday morning.
A band of showers and thunderstorm will develop along the front
and move across the area by Monday afternoon. Strong southwest
winds will usher in cooler temperatures behind the cold front,
with gusts reaching 40 mph Monday afternoon. For Tuesday, high
pressure is forecast to bring dry weather, and gradually
subsiding winds.

The next low pressure system is forecast to track into the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Thursday, producing the likelihood for
showers. Shower chances will linger Friday under an upper trough
following the surface low.

Expected conditions at the surface and aloft point to a cooling
trend. Near normal highs in the upper 60s Monday will slip to
the lower 60s by Friday under cold advection, clouds and precip.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Slow moving front is the focus for thunderstorms that will
continue to impact TAF sites with less than ideal flight
conditions. Improvement to VFR is expected by noon at southern
sites as the front lifts to Northern Ohio, carrying
thunderstorms with it. MVFR conditions accompanying the
thunderstorms will tend to persist until late afternoon at
northern sites closer to the front. Wind direction will vary
with frontal movement, with east winds becoming south by the end
of the forecast. VFR should prevail late in the forecast as
drier air arrives in the warm sector. South winds will gust over
20 knots at CVG near the end of their 30 hour TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with thunderstorms are
possible Sunday night and Monday. Wind gusts to 35 kt possible
Sunday into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for OHZ042-
     051>055-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for KYZ089>097.
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Coniglio

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1047 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

KYZ098>100-OHZ026-034-035-043>046-056-300915-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-
Delaware-Licking-
1047 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Northern
Kentucky, Central Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Wind gusts up to 40 MPH are possible on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>097-OHZ042-051>055-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088-300915-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Darke-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-
Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-
Scioto-
1047 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio
and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Wind gusts up to 40 MPH are possible on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any flooding or severe weather
events.

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