Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
209 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Disturbances traveling along a slow moving front will provide
the focus for thunderstorms today through Tuesday. Hot
temperatures are expected Wednesday when the front is forecast
to lift north of the area. The likelihood for thunderstorms will
return Thursday as the front sags south toward the Ohio River.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MCV moving into northwest Ohio will continue east. Already
starting to see new convection develop out ahead of this
feature. These storms will push through central Ohio this
afternoon. Additional activity diving southeast across western
Indiana should weaken as it approaches the forecast area. While
there is still potential for strong to severe storms and locally
heavy rain, that threat seems to be lower than earlier
anticipated. Minor adjustment to highs were made based on
trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
With the frontal boundary remaining in Ohio, the threat for
thunderstorms will persist tonight through Tuesday. Timing and
location of mesoscale elements is uncertain, but it appears
that a round of thunderstorms triggered by a short wave rippling
along the front will affect mainly northern locations tonight.
Following a diurnal lull Tuesday morning, additional
thunderstorms may develop Tuesday afternoon as the front sags
farther south to Central Ohio.

Expect temperatures to stay near normal, with highs in the mid
and upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A surface front is expected to lift north Wednesday with pops
decreasing from south to north. In the warm sector, Wednesday looks
to be the warmest day of the week with highs from the upper 80s
north to the lower 90s south.

Surface wave to track through the Great Lakes with associated cold
front dropping south into the Ohio Valley Thursday night/early
Friday. This front will increase chances for thunderstorms and
therefore have continued high chance pops Thursday. On the warm side
of the system, expect high mainly in the mid and upper 80s Thursday.

In the wake of the front surface high pressure to build southeast
into the region later Friday into Saturday. Expect dry conditions
with cooler temperatures. Highs Friday and Saturday are forecast in
the lower and middle 80s.

In the northwest flow the model solutions are showing a secondary
front which drops southeast through the Ohio Valley. Considerable
timing differences exist regarding this feature. Due to uncertainty
and lack of moisture will limit any mention of precipitation to
slight chance pops Saturday night into early Sunday. Highs on Sunday
look to continue close to normal, ranging from the lower 80s north
and mid 80s south. Surface high pressure to provide dry weather and
cooler temperatures with highs on Monday ranging from near 80 north
to the lower 80s south.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Developing thunderstorms may impact the Columbus TAFs early in
the period. Otherwise, the probability of any terminals being
impacted by showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the
daytime period is low. So VFR will prevail although south
southwest winds will remain gusty until around 00Z.

Appears that additional showers and thunderstorms will form
north of the region and sag south overnight. Due to timing
uncertainties, have used a broad range of VCSH/VCTS to indicate
the period of greatest potential. South winds will be persistent
through the night.

There is some potential for MVFR ceilings to develop and impact
locations from KDAY to KCMH/KLCK late in the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday and evening and then
again Thursday and Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
528 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074-110930-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-Hocking-
528 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected to move across the
region today. Some of these storms could produce damaging straight
line winds and large hail. Heavy rainfall may also occur which could
lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hot and humid conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday which
may result in heat indices rising into the mid to upper 90s both
days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>072-077>082-088-110930-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-
Scioto-
528 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms developing today will result in heavy downpours that
may cause localized flooding. In addition, some thunderstorms may
produce isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hot and humid conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday which
may result in heat indices rising into the mid to upper 90s both
days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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